Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

A spirochete isolated from a case of severe virulent ovine foot disease is closely related to a Treponeme isolated from human periodontitis and bovine digital dermatitis

The isolation of spirochetes from severe ovine foot disease has been reported recently by our research group. In this study we describe the preliminary classification of this spirochete based on nucleotide sequence analysis of the PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene. Phylogenetic analysis of this sequence in comparison with other previously reported 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that the spirochete belonged to the treponemal phylotype Treponema vincentii which has been associated with bovine digital dermatitis and human periodontal disease. Further work is required to define the common virulence determinants of these closely related treponemes in the aetiology of these tissue destructive diseases. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic relatedness and phenotypic characteristics of Treponema associated with human periodontal tissues and ruminant foot disease

Treponema have been implicated recently in the pathogenesis of digital dermatitis (DID) and contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD) that are infectious diseases of bovine and ovine foot tissues, respectively. Previous analyses of treponemal 16S rDNA sequences, PCR-amplified directly from DID or CODD lesions, have suggested relatedness of animal Treponema to some human oral Treponema species isolated from periodontal tissues. In this study a range of adhesion and virulence-related properties of three animal Treponema isolates have been compared with representative human oral strains of Treponema denticola and Treponema vincentii. In adhesion assays using biotinylated treponemal cells, T denticola cells bound in consistently higher numbers to fibronectin, laminin, collagen type 1, gelatin, keratin and lactoferrin than did T. vincentii or animal Treponema isolates. However, animal DID strains adhered to fibrinogen at equivalent or greater levels than T denticola. All Treponema strains bound to the amino-terminal heparin l/fibrin I domain of fibronectin. 16S rDNA sequence analyses placed ovine strain UB1090 and bovine strain UB1467 within a cluster that was phylogenetically related to T vincentii, while ovine strain UB1466 appeared more closely related to T denticola. These observations correlated with phenotypic properties. Thus, T denticola ATCC 35405, GM-1, and Treponema UB1466 had similar outer-membrane protein profiles, produced chymotrypsin-like protease (CTLP), trypsin-like protease and high levels of proline iminopeptidase, and co-aggregated with human oral bacteria Porphyromonas gingivalis and Streptococcus crista. Conversely, T vincentii ATCC 35580, D2A-2, and animal strains UB1090 and UB1467 did not express CTLP or trypsin-like protease and did not co-aggregate with P. gingivalis or S. crista. Taken collectively, these results suggest that human oral-related Treponema have broad host specificity and that similar control or preventive strategies might be developed for human and animal Treponema-associated infections.