Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Design of supramolecular beta-sheet forming beta-turns containing aromatic rings and non-coded alpha-aminoisobutyric acid and the formation of flat fibrillar structures through self-assembly

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that the three designed tripeptides Boc-Leu-Aib-m-NA-NO2 (I), Boc-Phe-Aib-m-NA-NO2 (II) and Boc-Pro-Aib-m-ABA-OMe (III) (Aib, -aminoisobutyric acid; m-NA, m-nitroaniline; m-ABA, m-aminobenzoic acid; Boc, t-butyloxycarbonyl) containing aromatic rings in the backbones adopt -turn structures that are self-assembled through intermolecular hydrogen bonds and van der Waals interactions to create layers of -sheets. Solvent-dependent NMR titration and CD studies show that the -turn structures of the peptides also exist in the solution phase. The field emission scanning electron microscopic and transmission electron microscopic images of the peptides in the solid state reveal fibrillar structures of flat morphology that are formed through -sheet mediated self-assembly of the preorganised -turn building blocks.

'Flat phase' PID controllers

Flat Phase PID Controllers have the property that the phase of the transfer function round the associated feedback loop is constant or flat around the design frequency, with the aim that the phase margin and overshoot to a step response is unaffected when the gain of the device under control changes. Such designs have been achieved using Bode Integrals and by ensuring the phase is the same at two frequencies. This paper extends the ‘two frequency’ controller and describes a novel three frequency controller. The different design strategies arc compared.

Droplets of structured fluid on a flat substrate

We study the equilibrium morphology of droplets of symmetric AB diblock copolymer on a flat substrate. Using self-consistent field theory (SCFT), we provide the first predictions for the equilibrium droplet shape and its internal structure. When the sustrate affinity for the A component, $\eta_A$, is small, the droplet adopts a nearly spherical shape much like that of simple fluids. Inside the spherical droplet, however, concentric circular lamellar layers stack on top of each other; hence the thickness of the droplet is effectively quantized by a half-integer or integer number of layers. At larger $\eta_A$ and smaller contact angle, the area of the upper-most layer becomes relatively large, resulting in a nearly flat, faceted top surface, followed by a semi-spherical slope. This geometry is remarkably reminiscent of the droplet shapes observed with smetic liquid crystals.

Finite- N effects for ideal polymer chains near a flat impenetrable wall

This paper addresses the statistical mechanics of ideal polymer chains next to a hard wall. The principal quantity of interest, from which all monomer densities can be calculated, is the partition function, G N(z) , for a chain of N discrete monomers with one end fixed a distance z from the wall. It is well accepted that in the limit of infinite N , G N(z) satisfies the diffusion equation with the Dirichlet boundary condition, G N(0) = 0 , unless the wall possesses a sufficient attraction, in which case the Robin boundary condition, G N(0) = - x G N ′(0) , applies with a positive coefficient, x . Here we investigate the leading N -1/2 correction, D G N(z) . Prior to the adsorption threshold, D G N(z) is found to involve two distinct parts: a Gaussian correction (for z <~Unknown control sequence '\lesssim' aN 1/2 with a model-dependent amplitude, A , and a proximal-layer correction (for z <~Unknown control sequence '\lesssim' a described by a model-dependent function, B(z).