Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Mind the gap: improving the dissemination of CBT

Empirically supported psychological treatments have been developed for a range of psychiatric disorders but there is evidence that patients are not receiving them in routine clinical care. Furthermore, even when patients do receive these treatments there is evidence that they are often not well delivered. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers to the dissemination of evidence-based psychological treatments and then propose ways of overcoming them, hence potentially bridging the gap between research findings and clinical practice. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging the gap between research and practice in organizational network analysis: a conversation between Rob Cross and Martin Kilduff

The article features a conversation between Rob Cross and Martin Kilduff about organizational network analysis in research and practice. It demonstrates the value of using social network perspectives in HRM. Drawing on the discussion about managing personal networks; managing the networks of others; the impact of social networking sites on perceptions of relationships; and ethical issues in organizational network analysis, we propose specific suggestions to bring social network perspectives closer to HRM researchers and practitioners and rebalance our attention to people and to their relationships.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Understanding the WTA–WTP gap: Attitudes, feelings, uncertainty and personality

We present an experiment designed to study the psychological basis for the willingness to accept (WTA)–willingness to pay (WTP) gap. Specifically, we conduct a standard WTA–WTP economic experiment to replicate the gap and include in it five additional instruments to try to follow the psychological processes producing it. These instruments are designed to measure five psychological constructs we consider especially relevant: (1) attitudes, (2) feelings, (3) familiarity with the target good, (4) risk attitudes, and (5) personality. Our results provide important new insights into the psychological foundations of the WTA–WTP disparity, which can be used to organize some major previous results and cast serious doubts on the claim that the gap might be just a consequence of inappropriate experimental practice.

Palaeobiology of the medieval population of Albano (Rome, Italy): a combined morphological and biomolecular approach

Recent years have seen increased interest in skeletal populations from the Imperial Roman Age in Italy, but much less is known about diet and standards of living in the subsequent medieval period. To fill this gap, we conducted a morphological analysis of human remains from Albano, an Italian town near Rome, as well as a stable isotope analysis of bone collagen to reconstruct diet. The sample was recovered from a Medieval cemetery (1040–1220 cal. yr. BP) located in the gardens of the historical Palazzo Doria Pamphili in Albano. A minimum number of 40 individuals (31 adults and 9 sub-adults) were examined using standard methods. Though the general health status of the population was good, signs of cribra orbitalia and diffuse enthesopathies were noted during the morphological examination. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of the bone collagen from 24 adult humans and three faunal bones indicate that the diet of the population may be described as predominantly terrestrial and C3-plant based although the data for some of the individuals suggest a modest consumption of C4-(millet) based or aquatic proteins. No evidence of significant dietary differences between the sexes was found. The comparison of the isotope data from Albano with those from populations recovered in the same region is consistent with a shift from a terrestrial, possibly plant foods-dominated subsistence in the Early Middle Ages to a diet with a higher contribution from animal proteins, both terrestrial and aquatic, in the Later Middle Ages.

Addressing the market research skills gap

This Viewpoint focuses on the debate in market research around the gap between academia and practitioners. It argues that the debate misses the key role that universities play in the provision of market research skills and that it is this skills gap that needs to be addressed in order to ensure the future of research as a profession.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

The professional development certificate scheme for undergraduates

The professional development certificate scheme, developed by the British Pharmaceutical Students’ Association, can bridge the gap between pharmacy undergraduates, tutors and employers. Jamie Wilkinson, Chris Cairns and Parastou Donyai explain.

Examining the technical efficiency of rice producers in Bangladesh

Despite record national output in the early years of this decade there is widespread concern that rice yields in Bangladesh are below those attainable, and that given future population growth this may constrain achievement of food security and poverty reduction objectives. A frequent response to this problem is that farmers could close the gap between actual farm yields and potential yields identified in field trials if farmers who are technically inefficient could improve their current farming practices. This paper estimates and explains technical efficiency for a sample of rice farmers in Bangladesh employing Bayesian methods. The results provide insights into the distribution of technical efficiency and identify important influences on rice growing.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.