Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Dysregulation of granulosal bone morphogenetic protein receptor 1B density is associated with reduced ovarian reserve and the age-related decline in human fertility

Reproductive ageing is linked to the depletion of ovarian primordial follicles, which causes an irreversible change to ovarian cellular function and the capacity to reproduce. The current study aimed to profile the expression of bone morphogenetic protein receptor, (BMPR1B) in 53 IVF patients exhibiting different degrees of primordial follicle depletion. The granulosa cell receptor density was measured in 403 follicles via flow cytometry. A decline in BMPR1B density occurred at the time of dominant follicle selection and during the terminal stage of folliculogenesis in the 23-30 y good ovarian reserve patients. The 40+ y poor ovarian reserve patients experienced a reversal of this pattern. The results demonstrate an association between age-induced depletion of the ovarian reserve and BMPR1B receptor density at the two critical time points of dominant follicle selection and pre-ovulatory follicle maturation. Dysregulation of BMP receptor signalling may inhibit the normal steroidogenic differentiation required for maturation in older patients.

Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

New dioxadiaza- and trioxadiaza-macrocycles containing one dibenzofuran unit with two amino pendant arms: synthesis, protonation and complexation studies

New dioxadiaza- and trioxadiaza-macrocycles containing one rigid dibenzofuran unit (DBF) and N-(2-aminoethyl) pendant arms were synthesized, N,N'-bis(2-aminoethyl)-[17]( DBF) N2O2 (L-1) and N,N'-bis(2-aminoethyl)-[22](DBF)N2O3 (L-2), respectively. The binding properties of both macrocycles to metal ions and structural studies of their metal complexes were carried out. The protonation constants of both compounds and the stability constants of their complexes with Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, and Pb2+ were determined at 298.2 K, in aqueous solutions, and at ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in KNO3. Mononuclear complexes with both ligands were formed, and dinuclear complexes were only found for L-2. The thermodynamic binding affinities of the metal complexes of L-2 are lower than those of L-1 as expected, but the Pb2+ complexes of both macrocycles exhibit close stability constant values. On the other hand, the binding affinities of Cd2+ and Pb2+ for L-1 are very high, when compared to those of Co2+, Ni2+ and Zn2+. These interesting properties were explained by the presence of the rigid DBF moiety in the backbone of the macrocycle and to the special match between the macrocyclic cavity size and the studied larger metal ions. To elucidate the adopted structures of complexes in solution, the nickel(II) and copper( II) complexes with both ligands were further studied by UV-vis-MR spectroscopy in DMSO-H2O 1 : 1 (v/v) solution. The copper(II) complexes were also studied by EPR spectroscopy in the same mixture of solvents. The crystal structure of the copper complex of L-1 was also determined. The copper(II) displays an octahedral geometry, the four nitrogen atoms forming the equatorial plane and two oxygen atoms, one from the DBF unit and the other one from the ether oxygen, in axial positions. One of the ether oxygens of the macrocycle is out of the coordination sphere. Our results led us to suggest that this geometry is also adopted by the Co2+ to Zn2+ complexes, and only the larger Cd2+ and Pb2+ manage to form complexes with the involvement of all the oxygen atoms of the macrocyclic backbone.

Dimetallic complexes of macrocycles with two rigid dibenzofuran units as receptors for detection of anionic substrates

The hexaazamacrocycles [28](DBF)2N6 {cyclo[bis(4,6-dimethyldibenzo[b,d]furaniminoethyleneiminoethylene]} and [32](DBF)2N6 {cyclo[bis(4,6-dimethyldibenzo[b,d]furaniminopropyleneiminopropylene]} form stable dinuclear copper(II) complexes suitable to behave as receptors for several anionic substrates. These two receptors were used to study the binding interactions with several substrates, such as imidazole (Him) and some carboxylates [benzoate (bz−), oxalate (ox2−), malonate (mal2−), phthalate (ph2−), isophthalate (iph2−), and terephthalate (tph2−)] by spectrophotometric titrations and EPR spectroscopy in MeOH (or H2O):DMSO (1:1 v/v) solution. The largest association constant was found for ox2− with Cu2[32](DBF)2N64+, whereas for the aromatic dicarboxylate anions the binding constants follow the trend ph2− > iph2− > tph2−, i.e. decrease with the increase of the distance of the two binding sites of the substrate. On the other hand, the large blue shift of 68 nm observed by addition of Him to Cu2[32](DBF)2N64+ points out for the formation of the bridged CuimCu cascade complex, indicating this receptor as a potential sensor for the detection and determination of imidazole in solution. The X-band EPR spectra of the Cu2[28](DBF)2N64+ and Cu2[32](DBF)2N6]4+ complexes and the cascade complexes with the substrates, performed in H2O:DMSO (1:1 v/v) at 5 to 15 K, showed that the CuCu distance is slightly larger than the one found in crystal state and that this distance increases when the substrate is accommodated between the two copper centres. The crystal structure of [Cu2[28](DBF)2N6(ph)2]·CH3OH was determined by X-ray diffraction and revealed the two copper centres bridged by two ph2− anions at a Cu···Cu distance of 5.419(1) Å. Each copper centre is surrounded by three carboxylate oxygen atoms from two phthalate anions and three contiguous nitrogen atoms of the macrocycle in a pseudo octahedral coordination environment.

Emotion processing in infancy: specificity in risk for social anxiety and associations with two year outcomes

The current study examined the specificity of patterns of responding to high and low intensity negative emotional expressions of infants of mothers with social phobia, and their association with child outcomes at two years of age. Infants of mothers with social phobia, generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) or no history of anxiety were shown pairs of angry and fearful emotional expressions at 10 weeks of age. Symptoms of social withdrawal, anxiety and sleep problems were assessed at two years of age. Only infants of mothers with social phobia showed a tendency to look away from high intensity fear faces; however infants of mothers with both social phobia and GAD showed a bias towards high intensity angry faces. Among the offspring of mothers with social phobia, anxiety symptoms at two years of age were associated with a preference for high intensity fear faces in infancy. The reverse pattern was found amongst the offspring of non-anxious mothers. These findings suggest a possible specific response to emotional expressions among the children of mothers with social phobia.

Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score

The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a frequently used scoring rule. In contrast with many other scoring rules, the CRPS evaluates cumulative distribution functions. An ensemble of forecasts can easily be converted into a piecewise constant cumulative distribution function with steps at the ensemble members. This renders the CRPS a convenient scoring rule for the evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles, obviating the need for sophisticated ensemble model output statistics or dressing methods prior to evaluation. In this article, a relation between the CRPS score and the quantile score is established. The evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles using the CRPS is discussed in this light. It is shown that latent in this evaluation is an interpretation of the ensemble as quantiles but with non-uniform levels. This needs to be taken into account if the ensemble is evaluated further, for example with rank histograms.

A uniformly valid far field asymptotic expansion of the green function for two-dimensional propagation above a homogeneous impedance plane

A generalized asymptotic expansion in the far field for the problem of cylindrical wave reflection at a homogeneous impedance plane is derived. The expansion is shown to be uniformly valid over all angles of incidence and values of surface impedance, including the limiting cases of zero and infinite impedance. The technique used is a rigorous application of the modified steepest descent method of Ot

Knowledge of A/A'-dependencies on subject extraction with two types of infinitives in non-native Portuguese adult bilingualism

Within generative L2 acquisition research there is a longstanding debate as to what underlies observable differences in L1/L2 knowledge/ performance. On the one hand, Full Accessibility approaches maintain that target L2 syntactic representations (new functional categories and features) are acquirable (e.g., Schwartz & Sprouse, 1996). Conversely, Partial Accessibility approaches claim that L2 variability and/or optionality, even at advanced levels, obtains as a result of inevitable deficits in L2 narrow syntax and is conditioned upon a maturational failure in adulthood to acquire (some) new functional features (e.g., Beck, 1998; Hawkins & Chan, 1997; Hawkins & Hattori, 2006; Tsimpli & Dimitrakopoulou, 2007). The present study tests the predictions of these two sets of approaches with advanced English learners of L2 Brazilian Portuguese (n = 21) in the domain of inflected infinitives. These advanced L2 learners reliably differentiate syntactically between finite verbs, uninflected and inflected infinitives, which, as argued, only supports Full Accessibility approaches. Moreover, we will discuss how testing the domain of inflected infinitives is especially interesting in light of recent proposals that Brazilian Portuguese colloquial dialects no longer actively instantiate them (Lightfoot, 1991; Pires, 2002, 2006; Pires & Rothman, 2009; Rothman, 2007).

[C7H10N][In3Se5]: a layered selenide with two indium coordination environments

A new layered indium selenide, [C7H10N][In3Se5], was prepared under solvothermal conditions using 3,5-dimethylpyridine as a structure-directing agent. The crystal structure contains anionic layers of stoichiometry [In3Se5]− in which indium atoms with octahedral and tetrahedral coordination coexist. This material represents the first occurrence of octahedrally coordinated indium in a solvothermally-prepared indium selenide.