Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Chaos in foreign exchange markets: a sceptical view

This paper tests directly for deterministic chaos in a set of ten daily Sterling-denominated exchange rates by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent. Although in an earlier paper, strong evidence of nonlinearity has been shown, chaotic tendencies are noticeably absent from all series considered using this state-of-the-art technique. Doubt is cast on many recent papers which claim to have tested for the presence of chaos in economic data sets, based on what are argued here to be inappropriate techniques.

Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates

Many recent papers have documented periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid–ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. We propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in time series data based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8-h and 12-h frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule that is based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules can generate returns that are considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, although they cannot retain their profitability net of transactions costs. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for financial market researchers which will enable them to detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data better.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

'Fair trade gold': Antecedents, prospects and challenges

This paper critically examines the challenges with, and impacts of, adopting the models in place for fair trade agriculture in the artisanal gold mining sector. Over the past two years, an NGO-led 'fair trade gold' movement has surfaced, its crystallization fuelled by a burgeoning body of evidence that points to impoverished artisanal miners in developing countries receiving low payments for their gold, as well as working in hazardous and unsanitary conditions. Proponents of fair trade gold contest that increased interaction between artisanal miners and Western jewellers could facilitate the former receiving fairer prices for gold, accessing support services, and ultimately, improving their quality of life. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, however, the gold being mined on an artisanal scale does not supply Western retailers as perhaps believed; it is rather an important source of foreign exchange, which host governments employ buyers to collect for their coffers. It is maintained here that if the underlying purpose of fair trade is to improve the livelihoods and well-being of subsistence producers in developing countries, then the models that have proved so successful in alleviating the hardships of agro-producers of 'tropical' commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas and cocoa, should be adapted to artisanal gold mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Campaigns promoting 'fair trade gold' in the region should view host governments, and not Western retailers, as the 'end consumer', and focus on improving governance at the grassroots, organizing informal operators into working cooperatives, and addressing complications with purchasing arrangements - all of which would go a long way toward improving the livelihoods of subsistence artisanal miners. A case study of Noyem, Ghana, the location of a sprawling illegal gold mining community, is presented, which magnifies these challenges further and provides perspective on how they can be overcome. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community-based climate change adaptation strategies for integrated prawn-fish-rice farming in Bangladesh to promote social-ecological resilience

Farming freshwater prawns with fish in rice fields is widespread in coastal regions of southwest Bangladesh because of favourable resources and ecological conditions. This article provides an overview of an ecosystem-based approach to integrated prawn-fish-rice farming in southwest Bangladesh. The practice of prawn and fish farming in rice fields is a form of integrated aquaculture-agriculture, which provides a wide range of social, economic and environmental benefits. Integrated prawn-fish-rice farming plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh, earning foreign exchange and increasing food production. However, this unique farming system in coastal Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climatechange. We suggest that community-based adaptation strategies must be developed to cope with the challenges. We propose that integrated prawn-fish-rice farming could be relocated from the coastal region to less vulnerable upland areas, but caution that this will require appropriate adaptation strategies and an enabling institutional environment.

The case of tomato in Ghana: processing

Processing of highly perishable non-storable crops, such as tomato, is typically promoted for two reasons: as a way of absorbing excess supply, particularly during gluts that result from predominantly rainfed cultivation; and to enhance the value chain through a value-added process. For Ghana, improving domestic tomato processing would also reduce the country’s dependence on imported tomato paste and so improve foreign exchange reserves, as well as provide employment opportunities and development opportunities in what are poor rural areas of the country. Many reports simply repeat the mantra that processing offers a way of buying up the glut. Yet the reality is that the “tomato gluts,” an annual feature of the local press, occur only for a few weeks of the year, and are almost always a result of large volumes of rainfed local varieties unsuitable for processing entering the fresh market at the same time, not the improved varieties that could be used by the processors. For most of the year, the price of tomatoes suitable for processing is above the breakeven price for tomato processors, given the competition from imports. Improved varieties (such as Pectomech) that are suitable for processing are also preferred by consumers and achieve a premium price over the local varieties.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

Back to the margins in search of the core: "Foreign Land"'s geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial center, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift which provides a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Rather than as a former empire, Portugal is defined by its situation at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of “core” or “center” are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogue combines Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

The national food safety control system of China: a systematic review

In recent years, there have been increasing concerns over the safety of the Chinese food supply. Although many of these have only raised concern internally within China, several major food safety issues have had international repercussions. In response, China has implemented new food safety laws and management systems to improve its national food safety control system and reduce public and international concerns. This paper has describes and discusses the components of the Chinese system using the five key elements of a national food control system identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as essential for an effective system. The latest Chinese national food safety control has made significantly improvement on its regulation framework, however, more work need to be done on standards, law enforcement, and information exchange.

Back to the margins in search of the core: foreign land's geography of exclusion

The crisis of the national project in the early 1990s, caused by a short-lived but disastrous government, led Brazilian art cinema, for the first time, to look at itself as periphery and re-approach the old colonial centre, Portugal. Terra estrangeira/Foreign Land (Walter Salles & Daniela Thomas, Brazil/Portugal, 1995), a film about Brazilian exiles in Portugal, is the best illustration of this perspective shift aimed at providing a new sense of Brazil’s scale and position within a global context. Shot mainly on location in São Paulo, Lisbon and Cape Verde, it promotes the encounter of Lusophone peoples who find a common ground in their marginal situation. Even Portugal is defined by its location at the edge of Europe and by beliefs such as Sebastianism, whose origins go back to the time when the country was dominated by Spain. As a result, notions of ‘core’ or ‘centre’ are devolved to the realm of myth. The film’s carefully crafted dialogues combine Brazilian, Portuguese and Creole linguistic peculiarities into a common dialect of exclusion, while language puns trigger visual rhymes which refer back to the Cinema Novo (the Brazilian New Wave) repertoire and restage the imaginary of the discovery turned into unfulfilled utopia. The main characters also acquire historical resonances, as they are depicted as descendants of Iberian conquistadors turned into smugglers of precious stones in the present. Their activities define a circuit of international exchange which resonates with that of globalized cinema, a realm in which Foreign Land, made up of citations and homage to other cinemas, tries to retrieve a sense of belonging.

Expression of the Rap1 guanine nucleotide exchange factor, MR-GEF, is altered in individuals with bipolar disorder

In the rodent forebrain GABAergic neurons are generated from progenitor cells that express the transcription factors Dlx1 and Dlx2. The Rap-1 guanine nucleotide exchange factor, MR-GEF, is turned on by many of these developing GABAergic neurons. Expression of both Dlx1/2 and MR-GEF is retained in both adult mouse and human forebrain where, in human, decreased Dlx1 expression has been associated with psychosis. Using in situ hybridization studies we show that MR-GEF expression is significantly down-regulated in the forebrain of Dlx1/2 double mutant mice suggesting that MR-GEF and Dlx1/2 form part of a common signalling pathway during GABAergic neuronal development. We therefore compared MR-GEF expression by in situ hybridization in individuals with major psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression) and control individuals. We observed a significant positive correlation between layers II and IV of the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) in the percentage of MR-GEF expressing neurons in individuals with bipolar disorder, but not in individuals with schizophrenia, major depressive disorder or in controls. Since MR-GEF encodes a Rap1 GEF able to activate G-protein signalling, we suggest that changes in MR-GEF expression could potentially influence neurotransmission.

Interplanetary magnetic field control of dayside auroral activity and the transfer of momentum across the dayside magnetopause

The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) during transient bursts of ionospheric flow and auroral activity in the dayside auroral ionosphere is studied, using data from the EISCAT radar, meridian-scanning photometers, and an all-sky TV camera, in conjunction with simultaneous observations of the interplanetary medium by the IMP-8 satellite. It is found that the ionospheric flow and auroral burst events occur regularly (mean repetition period equal to 8.3 ± 0.6 min) during an initial period of about 45 min when the IMF is continuously and strongly southward in GSM coordinates, consistent with previous observations of the occurrence of transient dayside auroral activity. However, in the subsequent 1.5 h, the IMF was predominantly northward, and only made brief excursions to a southward orientation. During this period, the mean interval between events increased to 19.2 ± 1.7 min. If it is assumed that changes in the North-South component of the IMF are aligned with the IMF vector in the ecliptic plane, the delays can be estimated between such a change impinging upon IMP-8 and the response in the cleft ionosphere within the radar field-of-view. It is found that, to within the accuracy of this computed lag, each transient ionospheric event during the period of predominantly northward IMF can be associated with a brief, isolated southward excursion of the IMF, as observed by IMP-8. From this limited period of data, we therefore suggest that transient momentum exchange between the magnetosheath and the ionosphere occurs quasi-periodically when the IMF is continuously southward, with a mean period which is strikingly similar to that for Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) at the magnetopause. During periods of otherwise northward IMF, individual momentum transfer events can be triggered by brief swings to southward IMF. Hence under the latter conditions the periodicity of the events can reflect a periodicity in the IMF, but that period will always be larger than the minimum value which occurs when the IMF is strongly and continuously southward.