Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extreme host plant conservatism during at least 20 million years of host plant pursuit by oak gallwasps

Diversification of insect herbivores is often associated with coevolution between plant toxins and insect countermeasures, resulting in a specificity that restricts host plant shifts. Gall inducers, however, bypass plant toxins and the factors influencing host plant associations in these specialized herbivores remain unclear. We reconstructed the evolution of host plant associations in Western Palaearctic oak gallwasps (Cynipidae: Cynipini), a species-rich lineage of specialist herbivores on oak (Quercus). (1) Bayesian analyses of sequence data for three genes revealed extreme host plant conservatism, with inferred shifts between major oak lineages (sections Cerris and Quercus) closely matching the minimum required to explain observed diversity. It thus appears that the coevolutionary demands of gall induction constrain host plant shifts, both in cases of mutualism (e.g., fig wasps, yucca moths) and parasitism (oak gallwasps). (2) Shifts between oak sections occurred independently in sexual and asexual generations of the gallwasp lifecycle, implying that these can evolve independently. (3) Western Palaearctic gallwasps associated with sections Cerris and Quercus diverged at least 20 million years ago (mya), prior to the arrival of oaks in the Western Palaearctic from Asia 5-7 mya. This implies an Asian origin for Western Palaearctic gallwasps, with independent westwards range expansion by multiple lineages.

Extreme gender biased post-fledging brood division in the toc-toc

The possibility that parents of one sex may preferentially invest in offspring of a certain sex raises profound evolutionary questions about the relative worth of sons and daughters to their mothers and fathers. Post-fledging brood division-in which cacti parent feeds a different subset of offspring-has been well documented in birds. However, a lack of empirical evidence that this may be based oil offspring sex, combined with the theoretical difficulty of explaining such an interaction, has led researchers to consider a gender bias in post-fledging brood division highly unlikely. Here we show that in the toc-toc, Foudia sechellarum, postfledging brood division is extreme and determined by sex; where brood composition allows, male parents exclusively provision male fledglings, whereas female parents provision female fledglings. This is the first study to provide unambiguous evidence, based on molecular sexing, that sex-biased post-fledging brood division can occur in birds. Male and female parents provisioned at the same rate and neither offspring nor parent survival appeared to be affected by the sex of the parent or offspring, respectively. The current hypotheses predicting advantages for brood division and preferential care for one specific type of offspring are discussed in the light of our results.

Extreme complementarity in a macrocycle-tweezer complex

Interaction of a novel pyrene-based tweezer molecule with a macrocyclic ether-imide-sulfone results in formation of a strongly bound complex (K-a = 24 000 M-1) in which binding results not only from pi-pi stacking interactions involving pyrene units as donors and macrocyclic naphthalene-tetracarboximide and biphenylenedisulfone groups as acceptors but also from N-(HO)-O-... and C-(HO)-O-... hydrogen bonds and from "reverse" pi-stacking of the electron-poor isophthaloyl residue of the tweezer with an electron-rich 3-aminophenoxy residue of the macrocyclic imide.

Biomechanics of a branch-stem junction in softwood

Direct measurement of strain field in a mechanically loaded Norway spruce branch-stem junction was performed by means of electronic speckle pattern analysis. Results were compared with strain distribution in a polyester cast of identical shape as the branch-stem junction, and a simplified polyester model consisting of two half-cylinders. Compared to polyester models, the branch-stem junction was characterised by a very homogeneous distribution of strain, which can be interpreted as a homogeneous distribution of stress in terms of fraction of material strength. This optimised transfer of mechanical load from the branch to the stem is achieved by a combination of naturally optimised shape with, additionally, optimised mechanical wood properties in the junction area.

Brief cognitive behavioural therapy for extreme shape concern: an evaluation

Objectives. This study was designed to evaluate a new brief cognitive-behavioural intervention to reduce concerns about body shape. Design. Women with high levels of shape concern (N = 50) were randomly assigned to cognitive behaviour therapy or applied relaxation (AR). Baseline assessments were made and then women received their treatment immediately after this assessment, ('immediate' treatment) or 5 weeks after this assessment, during which time no treatment was given ('delayed' treatment, DT). Methods. Shape concern and related cognitions and emotions were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and at 4 and 12 week follow-up (FU). Results. Immediate treatment was superior to DT in reducing shape concerns, and this difference was maintained at 4 week FU. The cognitive behavioural intervention was more effective than AR in changing shape concern and this difference was largely maintained for 3 months. Conclusions. These initial findings support the further investigation of this brief intervention.

Attitudes of rural branch managers in Madhya Pradesh, India, toward their role as providers of financial services to the poor

Discussions on banking reforms to reduce financial exclusion have referred little to possible attitudinal constraints, on the part of staff at both branch and institutional levels, inhibiting the provision of financial services to the poor. The research project, funded by the ESCOR (now Social Science Research) Small Grants Committee, has focused on this aspect of financial exclusion. The research commenced in May 2001 and was completed in April 2002. Profiles of the rural bank branch managers, including personal background, professional background and workplace, are presented. Attitudes of managers toward aspects of their work environment and the rural poor are examined, using results from both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Finally, the emerging policy implications are discussed. These include bank reforms to address human resource management, the work environment, intermediate bank management and organization, and the client interface.

A new organization for a perceptron-based branch predictor and its FPGA implementation

An unaltered rearrangement of the original computation of a neural based predictor at the algorithmic level is introduced as a new organization. Its FPGA implementation generates circuits that are 1.7 faster than a direct implementation of the original algorithm. This faster clock rate allows to implement predictors with longer history lengths using the nearly the same hardware budget.