The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

A temporal limit to the association between flag leaf life extension by fungicides and wheat yields

Three field experiments, each repeated over two or three seasons, on winter wheat investigated a possible limit to the association between grain yield and flag leaf life, as extended by fungicide application. The experiments involved up to six cultivars and different application rates, timings and frequencies of the strobilurin azoxystrobin and the triazole epoxiconazole. In the 2000/01 and 2001/02 seasons, the relationships between the thermal time to 37 % green flag leaf area (m) and yield deviated from linearity. 'Broken stick' models were fitted to cultivar x experiment combinations within each season and the limit to the benefit to yield associated with extending flag leaf life was 700 degrees C days (S.E. = 20.7) and 725 degrees C days (S.E. = 9.33) after anthesis in 2000/01 and 2001/02, respectively. In 2002/03, the relationship between yield and in did not deviate significantly (P > 0.05) from linearity, but in this latter year the fungicide application failed to increase In past 700 degrees C days. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Life cycle analysis of UK coal fired power plants

This paper examines the life cycle GHG emissions from existing UK pulverized coal power plants. The life cycle of the electricity Generation plant includes construction, operation and decommissioning. The operation phase is extended to upstream and downstream processes. Upstream processes include the mining and transport of coal including methane leakage and the production and transport of limestone and ammonia, which are necessary for flue gas clean up. Downstream processes, on the other hand, include waste disposal and the recovery of land used for surface mining. The methodology used is material based process analysis that allows calculation of the total emissions for each process involved. A simple model for predicting the energy and material requirements of the power plant is developed. Preliminary calculations reveal that for a typical UK coal fired plant, the life cycle emissions amount to 990 g CO2-e/kWh of electricity generated, which compares well with previous UK studies. The majority of these emissions result from direct fuel combustion (882 g/kWh 89%) with methane leakage from mining operations accounting for 60% of indirect emissions. In total, mining operations (including methane leakage) account for 67.4% of indirect emissions, while limestone and other material production and transport account for 31.5%. The methodology developed is also applied to a typical IGCC power plant. It is found that IGCC life cycle emissions are 15% less than those from PC power plants. Furthermore, upon investigating the influence of power plant parameters on life cycle emissions, it is determined that, while the effect of changing the load factor is negligible, increasing efficiency from 35% to 38% can reduce emissions by 7.6%. The current study is funded by the UK National Environment Research Council (NERC) and is undertaken as part of the UK Carbon Capture and Storage Consortium (UKCCSC). Future work will investigate the life cycle emissions from other power generation technologies with and without carbon capture and storage. The current paper reveals that it might be possible that, when CCS is employed. the emissions during generation decrease to a level where the emissions from upstream processes (i.e. coal production and transport) become dominant, and so, the life cycle efficiency of the CCS system can be significantly reduced. The location of coal, coal composition and mining method are important in determining the overall impacts. In addition to studying the net emissions from CCS systems, future work will also investigate the feasibility and technoeconomics of these systems as a means of carbon abatement.

Modification of cell wall properties in lettuce improves shelf life

It is proposed that post-harvest longevity and appearance of salad crops is closely linked to pre-harvest leaf morphology (cell and leaf size) and biophysical structure (leaf strength). Transgenic lettuce plants (Lactuca sativa cv. Valeria) were produced in which the production of the cell wall-modifying enzyme xyloglucan endotransglucosylase/hydrolase (XTH) was down-regulated by antisense inhibition. Independently transformed lines were shown to have multiple members of the LsXTH gene family down-regulated in mature leaves of 6-week-old plants and during the course of shelf life. Consequently, xyloglucan endotransglucosylase (XET) enzyme activity and action were down-regulated in the cell walls of these leaves and it was established that leaf area and fresh weight were decreased while leaf strength was increased in the transgenic lines. Membrane permeability was reduced towards the end of shelf life in the transgenic lines relative to the controls and bacteria were evident inside the leaves of control plants only. Most importantly, an extended shelf-life of transgenic lines was observed relative to the non-transgenic control plants. These data illustrate the potential for engineering cell wall traits for improving quality and longevity of salad crops using either genetic modification directly, or by using markers associated with XTH genes to inform a commercial breeding programme.