Primary evolving networks and the comparative analysis of robust and fragile structures

In this paper we consider the structure of dynamically evolving networks modelling information and activity moving across a large set of vertices. We adopt the communicability concept that generalizes that of centrality which is defined for static networks. We define the primary network structure within the whole as comprising of the most influential vertices (both as senders and receivers of dynamically sequenced activity). We present a methodology based on successive vertex knockouts, up to a very small fraction of the whole primary network,that can characterize the nature of the primary network as being either relatively robust and lattice-like (with redundancies built in) or relatively fragile and tree-like (with sensitivities and few redundancies). We apply these ideas to the analysis of evolving networks derived from fMRI scans of resting human brains. We show that the estimation of performance parameters via the structure tests of the corresponding primary networks is subject to less variability than that observed across a very large population of such scans. Hence the differences within the population are significant.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics.

Patterns of pollen and seed dispersal in a small, fragmented population of the wind-pollinated tree Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil

Paternity analysis based on eight microsatellite loci was used to investigate pollen and seed dispersal patterns of the dioecious wind- pollinated tree, Araucaria angustifolia. The study sites were a 5.4 ha isolated forest fragment and a small tree group situated 1.7 km away, located in Paran alpha State, Brazil. In the forest fragment, 121 males, 99 females, 66 seedlings and 92 juveniles were mapped and genotyped, together with 210 seeds. In the tree group, nine male and two female adults were mapped and genotyped, together with 20 seeds. Paternity analysis within the forest fragment indicated that at least 4% of the seeds, 3% of the seedlings and 7% of the juveniles were fertilized by pollen from trees in the adjacent group, and 6% of the seeds were fertilized by pollen from trees outside these stands. The average pollination distance within the forest fragment was 83 m; when the tree group was included the pollination distance was 2006m. The average number of effective pollen donors was estimated as 12.6. Mother- trees within the fragment could be assigned to all seedlings and juveniles, suggesting an absence of seed immigration. The distance of seedlings and juveniles from their assigned mother- trees ranged from 0.35 to 291m ( with an average of 83m). Significant spatial genetic structure among adult trees, seedlings, and juveniles was detected up to 50m, indicating seed dispersal over a short distance. The effective pollination neighborhood ranged from 0.4 to 3.3 ha. The results suggest that seed dispersal is restricted but that there is longdistance pollen dispersal between the forest fragment and the tree group; thus, the two stands of trees are not isolated.

A reconstructed Siberian High index since A. D. 1599 from Eurasian and North American tree rings

The long-term variability of the Siberian High, the dominant Northern Hemisphere anticyclone during winter, is largely unknown. To investigate how this feature varied prior to the instrumental record, we present a reconstruction of a Dec-Feb Siberian High (SH) index based on Eurasian and North American tree rings. Spanning 1599-1980, it provides information on SH variability over the past four centuries. A decline in the instrumental SH index since the late 1970s, related to Eurasian warming, is the most striking feature over the past four hundred years. It is associated with a highly significant (p < 0.0001) step change in 1989. Significant similar to 3-4 yr spectral peaks in the reconstruction fall within the range of variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (which has also declined recently) and lend further support to proposed relationships between these largescale features of the climate system.

Wiggle-match dating of tree-ring sequences

Given the non-monotonic form of the radiocarbon calibration curve, the precision of single C-14 dates on the calendar timescale will always be limited. One way around this limitation is through comparison of time-series, which should exhibit the same irregular patterning as the calibration curve. This approach can be employed most directly in the case of wood samples with many years growth present (but not able to be dated by dendrochronology), where the tree-ring series of unknown date can be compared against the similarly constructed C-14 calibration curve built from known-age wood. This process of curve-fitting has come to be called "wiggle-matching." In this paper, we look at the requirements for getting good precision by this method: sequence length, sampling frequency, and measurement precision. We also look at 3 case studies: one a piece of wood which has been independently dendrochronologically dated, and two others of unknown age relating to archaeological activity at Silchester, UK (Roman) and Miletos, Anatolia (relating to the volcanic eruption at Thera).

Competition in tree row agroforestry systems. 3. Soil water distribution and dynamics

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that soil water content would vary spatially with distance from a tree row and that the effect would differ according to tree species. A field study was conducted on a kaolinitic Oxisol in the sub-humid highlands of western Kenya to compare soil water distribution and dynamics in a maize monoculture with that under maize (Zea mays L.) intercropped with a 3-year-old tree row of Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. Ex R. Br. (grevillea) and hedgerow of Senna spectabilis DC. (senna). Soil water content was measured at weekly intervals during one cropping season using a neutron probe. Measurements were made from 20 cm to a depth of 225 cm at distances of 75, 150, 300 and 525 cm from the tree rows. The amount of water stored was greater under the sole maize crop than the agroforestry systems, especially the grevillea-maize system. Stored soil water in the grevillea-maize system increased with increasing distance from the tree row but in the senna-maize system, it decreased between 75 and 300 cm from the hedgerow. Soil water content increased least and more slowly early in the season in the grevillea-maize system, and drying was also evident as the frequency of rain declined. Soil water content at the end of the cropping season was similar to that at the start of the season in the grevillea-maize system, but about 50 and 80 mm greater in the senna-maize and sole maize systems, respectively. The seasonal water balance showed there was 140 mm, of drainage from the sole maize system. A similar amount was lost from the agroforestry systems (about 160 mm in the grevillea-maize system and 145 mm in the senna-maize system) through drainage or tree uptake. The possible benefits of reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration close to a tree row were not evident in the grevillea-maize system, but appeared to greatly compensate for water uptake losses in the senna-maize system. Grevillea, managed as a tree row, reduced stored soil water to a greater extent than senna, managed as a hedgerow.

Tree Inscriptions: restoring a lost facet of the Graeco-Roman epigraphic habit

This article for the first time considers all extant ancient evidence for the habit of carving inscriptions on tree trunks. It emerges a picture that bears remarkable resemblances to what is known from the habit of graffiti writing (with important addition to that latter field to be derived from the findings), for individual and technical texts.

Dynamic load balancing in parallel KD-tree k-means

One among the most influential and popular data mining methods is the k-Means algorithm for cluster analysis. Techniques for improving the efficiency of k-Means have been largely explored in two main directions. The amount of computation can be significantly reduced by adopting geometrical constraints and an efficient data structure, notably a multidimensional binary search tree (KD-Tree). These techniques allow to reduce the number of distance computations the algorithm performs at each iteration. A second direction is parallel processing, where data and computation loads are distributed over many processing nodes. However, little work has been done to provide a parallel formulation of the efficient sequential techniques based on KD-Trees. Such approaches are expected to have an irregular distribution of computation load and can suffer from load imbalance. This issue has so far limited the adoption of these efficient k-Means variants in parallel computing environments. In this work, we provide a parallel formulation of the KD-Tree based k-Means algorithm for distributed memory systems and address its load balancing issue. Three solutions have been developed and tested. Two approaches are based on a static partitioning of the data set and a third solution incorporates a dynamic load balancing policy.

Efficient tree construction for the multicast problem

A new heuristic for the Steiner Minimal Tree problem is presented here. The method described is based on the detection of particular sets of nodes in networks, the “Hot Spot” sets, which are used to obtain better approximations of the optimal solutions. An algorithm is also proposed which is capable of improving the solutions obtained by classical heuristics, by means of a stirring process of the nodes in solution trees. Classical heuristics and an enumerative method are used CIS comparison terms in the experimental analysis which demonstrates the goodness of the heuristic discussed in this paper.

Efficient tree construction for the multicast problem

A new heuristic for the Steiner minimal tree problem is presented. The method described is based on the detection of particular sets of nodes in networks, the “hot spot” sets, which are used to obtain better approximations of the optimal solutions. An algorithm is also proposed which is capable of improving the solutions obtained by classical heuristics, by means of a stirring process of the nodes in solution trees. Classical heuristics and an enumerative method are used as comparison terms in the experimental analysis which demonstrates the capability of the heuristic discussed