Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example - change in summer runoff at a 2oC increase in global mean temperature varying between -40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results, particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean temperature above 1oC, but there are differences between catchments. Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation.

The effects of triazole and strobilurin fungicide programmes on nitrogen uptake, partitioning, remobilization and grain N accumulation in winter wheat cultivars

Field experiments were conducted over 3 years to assess the effect of a triazole fungicide programme, and additions of strobilurin fungicides to it, on nitrogen uptake, accumulation and partitioning in a range of winter wheat cultivars. Commensurate with delayed senescence, fungicide programmes, particularly when including strobilurins, improved grain yield through improvements in both crop biomass and harvest index, although the relationship with green area duration of the flag leaf (GFLAD) depended on year and in some cases, cultivar. In all years fungicide treatments significantly increased the amount of nitrogen in the above-ground biomass, the amount of nitrogen in the grain and the nitrogen harvest index. All these effects could be linearly related to the fungicide effect on GFLAD. These relationships occasionally interacted with cultivar but there was no evidence that fungicide mode of action affected the relationship between GFLAD and yield of nitrogen in the grain. Fungicide treatments significantly reduced the amount of soil mineral N at harvest and when severe disease had been controlled, the net remobilization of N from the vegetation to the grain after anthesis. Fungicide maintained the filling of grain with both dry matter and nitrogen. The proportionate accumulation of nitrogen in the grain was later than that of dry matter and this difference was greater when fungicide had been applied. Effects of fungicide on grain protein concentration and its relationship with GFLAD were inconsistent over year and cultivar. There were several instances where grain protein concentration was unaffected despite large (1(.)5 t/ha) increases in grain yield following fungicide use. Dilution of grain protein concentration following fungicide use, when it did occur, was small compared with what would be predicted by adoption of other yield increasing techniques such as the selection of high yielding cultivars (based on currently available cultivars) or by growing wheat in favourable climates.

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF.

Progressive palaeoenvironmental change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian as prelude to Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a: Evidence from the Gorgo a Cerbara section (Umbria-Marche basin, central Italy)

During Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a, 120 Ma; Li et al., 2008), organic carbon-rich layers were deposited in marine environments under anoxic conditions on a global scale. In this study, palaeoenvironmental conditions leading to this event are characterised by studying the Upper Barremian to the Lower Aptian succession of the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). For this, an integrated multi-proxy approach (δ13Ccarb; δ13Corg; δ18O; phosphorus; Total Organic Carbon, TOC; bulk-rock mineralogy, as well as redox-sensitive trace elements — RSTEs) has been applied. During the LateBarremian, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically, and associated Corg:Ptot ratios indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are observed between TOC, P and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between P availability, productivity, and TOC preservation. However, the corresponding δ13Ccarb and δ18O records remain quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon reservoir to deviate δ13C records. Around the Barremian–Aptian boundary, TOC-enriched layers become more frequent. These layers correlate with negative excursions in the δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, possibly due to a warming period as indicated by the δ18O record. During the earliest Aptian, this warming trend is reverted into a cooling trend, which is then followed by an important warming step near the onset of Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a). During this time period, organic-rich intervals occur, which are characterised by the progressive increase in RSTE. The warming step prior the onset of OAE 1a is associated with the well-known negative spike in δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, an important peak in P accumulation, RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level itself may document a cooling phase. RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE 1a at this site. The Gorgo a Cerbara section is interpreted to reflect the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change related to the formation of the Ontong-Java plate-basalt plateau, which started already around the Barremian–Aptian boundary and culminated into OAE 1a.

Evidence for multiple-antibiotic resistance in Campylobacter jejuni not mediated by CmeB or CmeF

An efflux system, CmeABC, in Campylobacter jejuni was previously described, and a second efflux system, CmeDEF, has now been identified. The substrates of CmeDEF include ampicillin, ethidium bromide, acridine, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), deoxycholate, triclosan, and cetrimide, but not ciprofloxacin or erythromycin. C. jejuni NCTC11168 and two efflux pump knockout strains, cmeB::Kan(r) and cmeF::Kan(r), were exposed to 0.5 to 1 mu g of ciprofloxacin/ml in agar plates. All mutants arising from NCTC11168 were resistant to ciprofloxacin but not to other agents and contained a mutation resulting in the replacement of threonine 86 with isoleucine in the quinolone resistance-determining region of GyrA. Mutants with two distinct phenotypes were selected from the efflux pump knockout strains. Mutants with the first phenotype were resistant to ciprofloxacin only and had the same substitution within GyrA as the NCTC11168-derived mutants. Irrespective of the parent strain, mutants with the second phenotype were resistant to ciprofloxacin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, ethidium bromide, acridine orange, and SDS and had no mutation in gyrA. These mutants expressed levels of the efflux pump genes cmeB and cmeF and the major outer membrane protein gene porA similar to those expressed by the respective parent strains. No mutations were detected in cmeF or cmeB. Accumulation assays revealed that the mutants accumulated lower concentrations of drug. These data suggest the involvement of a non-CmeB or -CmeF efflux pump or reduced uptake conferring multiple-antibiotic resistance, which can be selected after exposure to a fluoroquinolone.

Seed development and maturation in early spring-flowering Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus continues post-shedding with little evidence of maturation in planta

Background and Aims: Seeds of the moist temperate woodland species Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus, dispersed during spring or early summer, germinated poorly in laboratory tests. Seed development and maturation were studied to better understand the progression from developmental to germinable mode in order to improve seed collection and germination practices in these and similar species. Methods: Phenology, seed mass, moisture content, and ability to germinate and tolerate desiccation were monitored during seed development until shedding. Embryo elongation within seeds was investigated during seed development and at several temperature regimes after shedding. Key Results: Seeds were shed at high moisture content (> 59%) with little evidence that dry mass accumulation or embryo elongation were complete. Ability to germinate developed prior to the ability of some seeds to tolerate enforced desiccation. Germination was sporadic and slow. Embryo elongation occurred post-shedding in moist environments, most rapidly at 20C in G. nivalis and 15C in N. pseudonarcissus. The greatest germination also occurred in these regimes, 78 and 48%, respectively, after 700 d. Conclusions: Seeds of G. nivalis and N. pseudonarcissus seeds were comparatively immature at shedding and substantial embryo elongation occurred post-shedding. Seeds showed limited desiccation tolerance at dispersal.

A novel approach to national technological accumulation and absorptive capacity: aggregating Cohen and Levinthal

The paper develops a more precise specification and understanding of the process of national-level knowledge accumulation and absorptive capabilities by applying the reasoning and evidence from the firm-level analysis pioneered by Cohen and Levinthal (1989, 1990). In doing so, we acknowledge that significant cross-border effects due to the role of both inward and outward FDI exist and that assimilation of foreign knowledge is not only confined to catching-up economies but is also carried out by countries at the frontier-sharing phase. We postulate a non-linear relationship between national absorptive capacity and the technological gap, due to the effects of the cumulative nature of the learning process and the increase in complexity of external knowledge as the country approaches the technological frontier. We argue that national absorptive capacity and the accumulation of knowledge stock are simultaneously determined. This implies that different phases of technological development require different strategies. During the catching-up phase, knowledge accumulation occurs predominately through the absorption of trade and/or inward FDI-related R&D spillovers. At the pre-frontier-sharing phase onwards, increases in the knowledge base occur largely through independent knowledge creation and actively accessing foreign-located technological spillovers, inter alia through outward FDI-related R&D, joint ventures and strategic alliances.

Diversity between and within varieties of capitalism: transnational survey evidence

One of the central debates in contemporary socio-economics concerns the relationship between institutions and firm-level practices and the persistence of a number of alternative viable models for economic development. We examine diversity within and between specific types of capitalism using data from a transnational survey incorporating 14 organizational level practices in a sample of six capitalist archetypes, constituting 27 countries and some 6503 firms. We focus on one of the key-defining features of different varieties of capitalism, the interdependence of employers and employees. We find that there are clustering tendencies, consistent with the literature, but also considerable diversity within as well as between the varieties, although we did not find “diffuse diversity” or homogeneity. The analysis supports a complex and nuanced relationship within and between varieties of capitalism that has not been previously captured in the literature.