Detecting an impact of predation on bird populations depends on the methods used to assess the predators

Summary 1. In recent decades there have been population declines of many UK bird species, which have become the focus of intense research and debate. Recently, as the populations of potential predators have increased there is concern that increased rates of predation may be contributing to the declines. In this review, we assess the methodologies behind the current published science on the impacts of predators on avian prey in the UK. 2. We identified suitable studies, classified these according to study design (experimental ⁄observational) and assessed the quantity and quality of the data upon which any variation in predation rates was inferred. We then explored whether the underlying study methodology had implications for study outcome. 3. We reviewed 32 published studies and found that typically observational studies comprehensively monitored significantly fewer predator species than experimental studies. Data for a difference in predator abundance from targeted (i.e. bespoke) census techniques were available for less than half of the 32 predator species studied. 4. The probability of a study detecting an impact on prey abundance was strongly, positively related to the quality and quantity of data upon which the gradient in predation rates was inferred. 5. The findings suggest that if a study is based on good quality abundance data for a range of predator species then it is more likely to detect an effect than if it relies on opportunistic data for a smaller number of predators. 6. We recommend that the findings from studies which use opportunistic data, for a limited number of predator species, should be treated with caution and that future studies employ bespoke census techniques to monitor predator abundance for an appropriate suite of predators.

Accommodation and vergence response gains to different near cues characterize specific esotropias

Aim. To describe preliminary findings of how the profile of the use of blur, disparity and proximal cues varies between non-strabismic groups and those with different types of esotropia. Design. Case control study Methodology. A remote haploscopic photorefractor measured simultaneous convergence and accommodation to a range of targets containing all combinations of binocular disparity, blur and proximal (looming) cues. 13 constant esotropes, 16 fully accommodative esotropes, and 8 convergence excess esotropes were compared with age and refractive error matched controls, and 27 young adult emmetropic controls. All wore full refractive correction if not emmetropic. Response AC/A and CA/C ratios were also assessed. Results. Cue use differed between the groups. Even esotropes with constant suppression and no binocular vision (BV) responded to disparity in cues. The constant esotropes with weak BV showed trends for more stable responses and better vergence and accommodation than those without any BV. The accommodative esotropes made less use of disparity cues to drive accommodation (p=0.04) and more use of blur to drive vergence (p=0.008) than controls. All esotropic groups failed to show the strong bias for better responses to disparity cues found in the controls, with convergence excess esotropes favoring blur cues. AC/A and CA/C ratios existed in an inverse relationship in the different groups. Accommodative lag of >1.0D at 33cm was common (46%) in the pooled esotropia groups compared with 11% in typical children (p=0.05). Conclusion. Esotropic children use near cues differently from matched non-esotropic children in ways characteristic to their deviations. Relatively higher weighting for blur cues was found in accommodative esotropia compared to matched controls.

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Examining second language development using event-related potentials: a cross-sectional study on the processing of gender and number agreement

This cross-sectional study examines the role of L1-L2 differences and structural distance in the processing of gender and number agreement by English-speaking learners of Spanish at three different levels of proficiency. Preliminary results show that differences between the L1 and L2 impact L2 development, as sensitivity to gender agreement violations, as opposed to number agreement violations, emerges only in learners at advanced levels of proficiency. Results also show that the establishment of agreement dependencies is impacted by the structural distance between the agreeing elements for native speakers and for learners at intermediate and advanced levels of proficiency but not for low proficiency. The overall pattern of results suggests that the linguistic factors examined here impact development but do not constrain ultimate attainment; for advanced learners, results suggest that second language processing is qualitatively similar to native processing.

The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory

The Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory (OHM-CV) is a research initiative aimed at improving the understanding and modeling of the Mediterranean intense rain events that frequently result in devastating flash floods in southern France. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, modelers and instrumentalists, researchers and practitioners, to cope with these rather unpredictable events. In line with previously published flash-flood monographs, the present paper aims at documenting the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic event, which resulted in 24 casualties and an economic damage evaluated at 1.2 billion euros (i.e., about 1 billion U.S. dollars) in the Gard region, France. A description of the synoptic meteorological situation is first given and shows that no particular precursor indicated the imminence of such an extreme event. Then, radar and rain gauge analyses are used to assess the magnitude of the rain event, which was particularly remarkable for its spatial extent with rain amounts greater than 200 mm in 24 h over 5500 km2. The maximum values of 600–700 mm observed locally are among the highest daily records in the region. The preliminary results of the postevent hydrological investigation show that the hydrologic response of the upstream watersheds of the Gard and Vidourle Rivers is consistent with the marked space–time structure of the rain event. It is noteworthy that peak specific discharges were very high over most of the affected areas (5–10 m3 s−1 km−2) and reached locally extraordinary values of more than 20 m3 s−1 km−2. A preliminary analysis indicates contrasting hydrological behaviors that seem to be related to geomorphological factors, notably the influence of karst in part of the region. An overview of the ongoing meteorological and hydrological research projects devoted to this case study within the OHM-CV is finally presented.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.