Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

CD8+ T-cells mediate immunopathology in tick-borne encephalitis

Epidemics of tick-borne encephalitis involving thousands of humans occur annually in the forested regions of Europe and Asia. Despite the importance of this disease, the underlying basis for the development of encephalitis remains undefined. Here, we prove the key role of CD8(+) T-cells in the immunopathology of tick-borne encephalitis, as demonstrated by prolonged survival of SCID or CD8(-/-) mice, following infection, when compared with immunocompetent mice or mice with adoptively transferred CD8(+) T-cells. The results imply that tick-borne encephalitis is an immunopathological disease and that the inflammatory reaction significantly contributes to the fatal outcome of the infection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mutations in the NS2B and NS3 genes affect mouse neuroinvasiveness of a Western European field strain of tick-borne encephalitis virus

An attenuated strain (263) of the tick-borne encephalitis virus, isolated from field ticks, was either serially subcultured, 5 times in mice, or at 40 degrees C in PS cells, producing 2 independent strains, 263-m5 and 263-TR with identical genomes; both strains exhibited increased plaque size, neuroinvasiveness and temperature-resistance. Sequencing revealed two unique amino acid substitutions, one mapping close to the catalytic site of the viral protease. These observations imply that virus adaptation from ticks to mammals occurs by selection of pre-existing virulent variants from the quasispecies population rather than by the emergence of new random mutations. The significance of these observations is discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Replication enhancer elements within the open reading frame of tick-borne encephalitis virus and their evolution within the Flavivirus genus

We provide experimental evidence of a replication enhancer element (REE) within the capsid gene of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV, genus Flavivirus). Thermodynamic and phylogenetic analyses predicted that the REE folds as a long stable stem–loop (designated SL6), conserved among all tick-borne flaviviruses (TBFV). Homologous sequences and potential base pairing were found in the corresponding regions of mosquito-borne flaviviruses, but not in more genetically distant flaviviruses. To investigate the role of SL6, nucleotide substitutions were introduced which changed a conserved hexanucleotide motif, the conformation of the terminal loop and the base-paired dsRNA stacking. Substitutions were made within a TBEV reverse genetic system and recovered mutants were compared for plaque morphology, single-step replication kinetics and cytopathic effect. The greatest phenotypic changes were observed in mutants with a destabilized stem. Point mutations in the conserved hexanucleotide motif of the terminal loop caused moderate virus attenuation. However, all mutants eventually reached the titre of wild-type virus late post-infection. Thus, although not essential for growth in tissue culture, the SL6 REE acts to up-regulate virus replication. We hypothesize that this modulatory role may be important for TBEV survival in nature, where the virus circulates by non-viraemic transmission between infected and non-infected ticks, during co-feeding on local rodents.

Epidemic K-Means clustering

The K-Means algorithm for cluster analysis is one of the most influential and popular data mining methods. Its straightforward parallel formulation is well suited for distributed memory systems with reliable interconnection networks. However, in large-scale geographically distributed systems the straightforward parallel algorithm can be rendered useless by a single communication failure or high latency in communication paths. This work proposes a fully decentralised algorithm (Epidemic K-Means) which does not require global communication and is intrinsically fault tolerant. The proposed distributed K-Means algorithm provides a clustering solution which can approximate the solution of an ideal centralised algorithm over the aggregated data as closely as desired. A comparative performance analysis is carried out against the state of the art distributed K-Means algorithms based on sampling methods. The experimental analysis confirms that the proposed algorithm is a practical and accurate distributed K-Means implementation for networked systems of very large and extreme scale.

Complete sequence and molecular epidemiology of IncK epidemic plasmid encoding bla(CTX-M-14)

Antimicrobial drug resistance is a global challenge for the 21st century with the emergence of resistant bacterial strains worldwide. Transferable resistance to beta-lactam antimicrobial drugs, mediated by production of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs), is of particular concern. In 2004, an ESBL-carrying IncK plasmid (pCT) was isolated from cattle in the United Kingdom. The sequence was a 93,629-bp plasmid encoding a single antimicrobial drug resistance gene, bla(CTX-M-14). From this information, PCRs identifying novel features of pCT were designed and applied to isolates from several countries, showing that the plasmid has disseminated worldwide in bacteria from humans and animals. Complete DNA sequences can be used as a platform to develop rapid epidemiologic tools to identify and trace the spread of plasmids in clinically relevant pathogens, thus facilitating a better understanding of their distribution and ability to transfer between bacteria of humans and animals.

What makes a Salmonella strain epidemic? An expert opinion workshop

An expert opinion workshop was held on the subject of the cause, identification and control of new and emerging Salmonella strains. Experts were invited to complete questionnaires, contribute to structured discussions and take part in cluster group tasks. Outputs of the workshop included that, with current surveillance methods, it might take up to 2.5 years from the first introduction of a new strain into the UK livestock population to its identification as a human epidemic strain. In order to reduce the time to detection and provide more effective control options, several recommendations were made, including better back-tracing of human cases to their source, which would require more effective communication between those responsible for human and veterinary surveillance.

Epidemic multidrug-resistant (MDR-AmpC) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport strains contain three phage regions and a MDR resistance plasmid

Multidrug-resistant (MDR-AmpC) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport has caused serious disease in animals and humans in North America, whereas in the UK S. enterica serovar Newport is not associated with severe disease and usually sensitive to antibiotics; MDR S. Newport (not AmpC) strains have only been isolated from poultry. We found that UK poultry strains belonged to MLST type ST166 and were distinct from cattle isolates for being able to utilize D-tagotose and when compared by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) and diversity arrays technology (DArT). Cattle strains belonged to the ST45 complex differing from ST166 at all seven loci. PFGE showed that 19 out of 27 cattle isolates were more than 85% similar to each other and some UK and US strains were indistinguishable. Both CGH and DArT identified genes (including phage-related ones) that were uniquely present in the US isolates and two such genes identified by DArT showed sequence similarities with the pertussis-like (artAB) toxin. This work demonstrates that MDR-AmpC S. Newport from the USA are genetically closely related to pan-susceptible strains from the UK, but contained three extra phage regions and a MDR plasmid.

Expansion quality of epidemic protocols

Epidemic protocols are a bio-inspired communication and computation paradigm for large and extreme-scale networked systems. This work investigates the expansion property of the network overlay topologies induced by epidemic protocols. An expansion quality index for overlay topologies is proposed and adopted for the design of epidemic membership protocols. A novel protocol is proposed, which explicitly aims at improving the expansion quality of the overlay topologies. The proposed protocol is tested with a global aggregation task and compared to other membership protocols. The analysis by means of simulations indicates that the expansion quality directly relates to the speed of dissemination and convergence of epidemic protocols and can be effectively used to design better protocols.

Gender, race, and heterogeneous effects of epidemic malaria on human capital and income

This article investigates the impact of exposure to a serious, unusual, and unforeseen malaria epidemic in northeast Brazil in 1938–40 on subsequent human capital attainment and income. Arguing the event was exogenous, the article exploits cohort and regional heterogeneity in exposure to identify effects. Results are consistent with differential mortality rates according to gender and socioeconomic status, such that heterogeneous selection and scarring effects are observed. Analyzing by gender alone, positive (selection) effects are found for men, and mixed (positive and negative) effects for women. Allowing for heterogeneity by race, selection effects persist for men. In contrast, positive (selection) effects are observed for nonwhite women, and negative (scarring) effects for white women. Results contribute to evidence suggesting that exposure to negative environmental shocks affects human capital attainment, while also suggesting it heterogeneously affects cohort composition.