Entropy application to improve construction finance decisions

In financial decision-making processes, the adopted weights of the objective functions have significant impacts on the final decision outcome. However, conventional rating and weighting methods exhibit difficulty in deriving appropriate weights for complex decision-making problems with imprecise information. Entropy is a quantitative measure of uncertainty and has been useful in exploring weights of attributes in decision making. A fuzzy and entropy-based mathematical approach is employed to solve the weighting problem of the objective functions in an overall cash-flow model. The multiproject being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong was used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of entropy. Its application in multiproject cash flow situations is demonstrated. The results indicate that the overall before-tax profit was HK$ 0.11 millions lower after the introduction of appropriate weights. In addition, the best time to invest in new projects arising from positive cash flow was identified to be two working months earlier than the nonweight system.

Construction management contracts: law and practice

The context of construction management (CM) reveals that this method of procurement is as much a management philosophy as a contract structure. It is important to consider legal and contractual issues in this context. The interplay between management and law is complex and often misunderstood. Before considering specific issues, the use of contractual remedies in business agreements is discussed. In addition, the extent to which standardising a form of contract detracts or contributes to the success of projects is also considered. The dearth of judicial decisions, and the lack of a standard form, render it difficult to be specific about legal issues. Therefore, the main discussion of legal issues is centred around a recently completed research project which involved eliciting the views of a cross-section of experienced construction management clients, consultants and trade contractors. These interviews are used as the basis for highlighting some of the most important legal points to consider when setting up CM projects. The interviews revealed that the advantage of CM is the proximity of the client to the trade contractors and the disadvantage is that it depends on a high degree of professionalism and experience; qualities which are unfortunately difficult to find in the UK construction industry.

Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.

Goal sketching: towards agile requirements engineering

This paper describes a technique that can be used as part of a simple and practical agile method for requirements engineering. The technique can be used together with Agile Programming to develop software in internet time. We illustrate the technique and introduce lazy refinement, responsibility composition and context sketching. Goal sketching has been used in a number of real-world development projects, one of which is described here.

A pattern language for goals

Previous work has established the value of goal-oriented approaches to requirements engineering. Achieving clarity and agreement about stakeholders’ goals and assumptions is critical for building successful software systems and managing their subsequent evolution. In general, this decision-making process requires stakeholders to understand the implications of decisions outside the domains of their own expertise. Hence it is important to support goal negotiation and decision making with description languages that are both precise and expressive, yet easy to grasp. This paper presents work in progress to develop a pattern language for describing goal refinement graphs. The language has a simple graphical notation, which is supported by a prototype editor tool, and a symbolic notation based on modal logic.

Assessing the impact of the 'Decoupling' reform of the common agricultural policy on Irish farmers' off-farm labour market participation decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the 'decoupling' reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision-making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers' time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that 'decoupling' of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off-farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off-farm work will increase.

Engineering of a monodisperse core-shell magnetic Ti-O-Si oxidation nanocatalyst

There has been limited development in catalyst carriers for magnetic separations where superparamagnetic nanoparticles of a high saturation magnetization with no coercivity are required to isolate expensive catalyst reagent that are subjected to repeated magnetic cycles. By using simple stepwise layer-by-layer nanochemistry techniques, we show that an fee FePt nanomagnet can be created inside each silica particle with tailored dimensions to great precision. Subsequent engineering of the external surface with Ti-O-Si species in an optimum structure to create a unique interface gives high activity and excellent selectivity of the composite material for the trans-stilbene oxidation to the corresponding epoxide in the presence of tert-butyl hydroperoxide. Thus, a new magnetic separable epoxidation catalyst is described. This work clearly demonstrates the significance of nanoengineering of a single catalyst particle by a bottom-up construction approach in modern catalyst design, which could lead to new catalytic. properties.

Engineering Pt in ceria for a maximum metal-support interaction in catalysis

Conventional supported metal catalysts are metal nanoparticles deposited on high surface area oxide supports with a poorly defined metal−support interface. Typically, the traditionally prepared Pt/ceria catalyzes both methanation (H2/CO to CH4) and water−gas shift (CO/H2O to CO2/H2) reactions. By using simple nanochemistry techniques, we show for the first time that Pt or PtAu metal can be created inside each CeO2 particle with tailored dimensions. The encapsulated metal is shown to interact with the thin CeO2 overlayer in each single particle in an optimum geometry to create a unique interface, giving high activity and excellent selectivity for the water−gas shift reaction, but is totally inert for methanation. Thus, this work clearly demonstrates the significance of nanoengineering of a single catalyst particle by a bottom-up construction approach in modern catalyst design which could enable exploitation of catalyst site differentiation, leading to new catalytic properties.