An old problem revisited - and solved: Upton and Dalton's linear production response: A note

This note presents a robust method for estimating response surfaces that consist of linear response regimes and a linear plateau. The linear response-and-plateau model has fascinated production scientists since von Liebig (1855) and, as Upton and Dalton indicated, some years ago in this Journal, the response-and-plateau model seems to fit the data in many empirical studies. The estimation algorithm evolves from Bayesian implementation of a switching-regression (finite mixtures) model and demonstrates routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation-techniques that are now in widespread application in other disciplines.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Brief and precarious lives: Infant mortality in contrasting sites from medieval and post-medieval England (AD 850-1859)

This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles. At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).

Determinants of fruit and vegetable intake in England: a re-examination based on quantile regression

Objective To examine die sociodemographic determinants of fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption in England and determine the differential effects of socioeconomic variables at various parts of the intake distribution, with a special focus on severely inadequate intakes Design Quantile regression, expressing F&V intake as a function of sociodemographic variables, is employed. Here, quantile regression flexibly allows variables such as ethnicity to exert effects on F&V intake that. vary depending oil existing levels of intake. Setting The 2003 Health survey of England. Subjects Data were from 11044 adult individuals. Results The influence of particular sociodemographic variables is found to vary significantly across the intake distribution We conclude that women consume more F&V than men, Asians and Hacks mole dian Whites, co-habiting individuals more than single-living ones Increased incomes and education also boost intake However, the key general finding of the present study is that the influence of most variables is relatively weak in the area of greatest concern, i e among those with the most inadequate intakes in any reference group. Conclusions. Our findings emphasise the importance of allowing the effects of socio-economic drivers to vary across the intake distribution The main finding, that variables which exert significant influence on F&V Intake at other parts Of the conditional distribution have a relatively weak influence at the lower tail, is cause for concern. It implies that in any defined group, those consuming the lease F&V are hard to influence using compaigns or policy levers.

Detection of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA fragments in the blood, tissues, and digesta of broilers

The aim was to determine the fate of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA fragments in the blood, tissues, and digesta of broilers. Male broiler chicks (n = 24) were allocated at 1 day old to each of four treatment diets designated T1-T4. T1 and T2 contained the near isogenic nongenetically modified (GM) maize grain, whereas T3 and T4 contained GM maize grain [cry1a(b) gene]; T1 and T3 also contained the near isogenic non-GM soybean meal, whereas T2 and T4 contained GM soybean meal (cp4epsps gene). Four days prior to slaughter at 39-42 days old, 50% of the broilers on T2-T4 had the source(s) of GM ingredients replaced by their non-GM counterparts. Detection of specific DNA sequences in feed, tissue, and digesta samples was completed by polymerase chain reaction analysis. Seven primer pairs were used to amplify fragments (similar to 200 bp) from single copy genes (maize high mobility protein, soya lectin, and transgenes in the GM feeds) and multicopy genes (poultry mitochondrial cytochrome b, maize, and soya rubisco). There was no effect of treatment on the measured growth performance parameters. Except for a single detection of lectin (nontransgenic single copy gene; unsubstantiated) in the extracted DNA from one bursa tissue sample, there was no positive detection of any endogenous or transgenic single copy genes in either blood or tissue DNA samples. However, the multicopy rubisco gene was detected in a proportion of samples from all tissue types (23% of total across all tissues studied) and in low numbers in blood. Feed-derived DNA was found to survive complete degradation up to the large intestine. Transgenic DNA was detected in gizzard digesta but not in intestinal digesta 96 h after the last feeding of treatment diets containing a source of GM maize and/or soybean meal.

Detection of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA in rumen fluid, duodenal digesta, milk, blood, and feces of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to determine the presence or absence of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA in ruminal fluid, duodenal digesta, milk, blood, and feces, and if found, to determine fragment size. Six multiparous lactating Holstein cows fitted with ruminal and duodenal cannulas received a total mixed ration. There were two treatments (T). In T1, the concentrate contained genetically modified (GM) soybean meal (cp4epsps gene) and GM corn grain (cry1a[b] gene), whereas T2 contained the near isogenic non-GM counterparts. Polymerase chain reaction analysis was used to determine the presence or absence of DNA sequences. Primers were selected to amplify small fragments from single-copy genes (soy lectin and corn high-mobility protein and cp4epsps and cry1a[b] genes from the GM crops) and multicopy genes (bovine mitochondrial cytochrome b and rubisco). Single-copy genes were only detected in the solid phase of rumen and duodenal digesta. In contrast, fragments of the rubisco gene were detected in the majority of samples analyzed in both the liquid and solid phases of ruminal and duodenal digesta, milk, and feces, but rarely in blood. The size of the rubisco gene fragments detected decreased from 1176 bp in ruminal and duodenal digesta to 351 bp in fecal samples.

A study of the effect of heat source location in a ventilated room using multiple regression analysis

Multiple regression analysis is a statistical technique which allows to predict a dependent variable from m ore than one independent variable and also to determine influential independent variables. Using experimental data, in this study the multiple regression analysis is applied to predict the room mean velocity and determine the most influencing parameters on the velocity. More than 120 experiments for four different heat source locations were carried out in a test chamber with a high level wall mounted air supply terminal at air change rates 3-6 ach. The influence of the environmental parameters such as supply air momentum, room heat load, Archimedes number and local temperature ratio, were examined by two methods: a simple regression analysis incorporated into scatter matrix plots and multiple stepwise regression analysis. It is concluded that, when a heat source is located along the jet centre line, the supply momentum mainly influences the room mean velocity regardless of the plume strength. However, when the heat source is located outside the jet region, the local temperature ratio (the inverse of the local heat removal effectiveness) is a major influencing parameter.

Effects of endogenous flour lipids on the quality of semisweet biscuits

Fractionation and reconstitution techniques were used to study the contribution of enclogenous flour lipids to the quality of semisweet (Rich Tea-type) biscuits. Biscuit flour was defatted with chloroform and baked with bakery fat but without enclogenous lipid addition. Semisweet biscuits baked from defatted flour were flatter, denser, and harder and showed collapse of gas cells during baking when compared with control biscuits. Defatted flour semisweet doughs exhibited a different rheological behavior from the control samples showing higher storage and loss moduli (G' and G" values), that is, high viscoelasticity. Functionality was restored when total nonstarch flour lipids were added back to defatted flour. Both the polar and nonpolar lipid fractions had positive effects in restoring flour quality, but the polar lipid fraction was of greatest benefit. Both fractions were needed for complete restoration of both biscuit quality and dough rheological characteristics.