The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Food marketing technology and contingency market valuation

Marketing activities are introduced into a rational expectations model of the food marketing system. The model is used to evaluate effects of alternative marketing technologies on the distribution of the benefits of contingency markets in agriculture. Benefits depend on two parameters: the cost share of farm inputs and the elasticity of substitution between farm and nonfarm inputs in food marketing. Over a broad spectrum of technologies, consumers are likely to be the net beneficiaries and farmers the net losers from the provision of contingency markets

Patterns of nucleotide substitution in angiosperm cpDNA trnL (UAA)-trnF (GAA) regions

Patterns of substitution in chloroplast encoded trnL_F regions were compared between species of Actaea (Ranunculales), Digitalis (Scrophulariales), Drosera (Caryophyllales), Panicoideae (Poales), the small chromosome species clade of Pelargonium (Geraniales), each representing a different order of flowering plants, and Huperzia (Lycopodiales). In total, the study included 265 taxa, each with > 900-bp sequences, totaling 0.24 Mb. Both pairwise and phylogeny-based comparisons were used to assess nucleotide substitution patterns. In all six groups, we found that transition/transversion ratios, as estimated by maximum likelihood on most-parsimonious trees, ranged between 0.8 and 1.0 for ingroups. These values occurred both at low sequence divergences, where substitutional saturation, i.e., multiple substitutions having occurred at the same (homologous) nucleotide position, was not expected, and at higher levels of divergence. This suggests that the angiosperm trnL-F regions evolve in a pattern different from that generally observed for nuclear and animal mtDNA (transitional/transversion ratio > or = 2). Transition/transversion ratios in the intron and the spacer region differed in all alignments compared, yet base compositions between the regions were highly similar in all six groups. A>-C transversions were significantly less frequent than the other four substitution types. This correlates with results from studies on fidelity mechanisms in DNA replication that predict A<->T and G<->C transversions to be least likely to occur. It therefore strengthens confidence in the link between mutation bias at the polymerase level and the actual fixation of substitutions as recorded on evolutionary trees, and concomitantly, in the neutrality of nucleotide substitutions as phylogenetic markers.

Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model

A two-sector Ramsey-type model of growth is developed to investigate the relationship between agricultural productivity and economy-wide growth. The framework takes into account the peculiarities of agriculture both in production ( reliance on a fixed natural resource base) and in consumption (life-sustaining role and low income elasticity of food demand). The transitional dynamics of the model establish that when preferences respect Engel's law, the level and growth rate of agricultural productivity influence the speed of capital accumulation. A calibration exercise shows that a small difference in agricultural productivity has drastic implications for the rate and pattern of growth of the economy. Hence, low agricultural productivity can form a bottleneck limiting growth, because high food prices result in a low saving rate.

Energy substitutability in transition agriculture: estimates and implications for Hungary

Subsidised energy prices in pre-transition Hungary had led to excessive energy intensity in the agricultural sector. Transition has resulted in steep input price increases. In this study, Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution are estimated to study the effects of these price changes on energy use, chemical input use, capital formation and employment. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and instrument exogeneity tests are used to specify and estimate technology and substitution elasticities. Results indicate that indirect price policy may be effective in controlling energy consumption. The sustained increases in energy and chemical input prices have worked together to restrict energy and chemical input use, and the substitutability between energy, capital and labour has prevented the capital shrinkage and agricultural unemployment situations from being worse. The Hungarian push towards lower energy intensity may be best pursued through sustained energy price increases rather than capital subsidies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shrinking the posterior: A note on the Nerlovian model

Diebold and Lamb (1997) argue that since the long-run elasticity of supply derived from the Nerlovian model entails a ratio of random variables, it is without moments. They propose minimum expected loss estimation to correct this problem but in so-doing ignore the fact that a non white-noise-error is implicit in the model. We show that, as a consequence the estimator is biased and demonstrate that Bayesian estimation which fully accounts for the error structure is preferable.

A simplified pricing model for volatility futures

We develop a general model to price VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out-of-sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price for almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics

Variation in dynamic elastic shear modulus of sandstone upon fluid saturation and substitution

Experimental acoustic measurements on sandstone rocks at both sonic and ultrasonic frequencies show that fluid saturation can cause a noticeable change in both the dynamic bulk and shear elastic moduli of sandstones. We observed that the change in dynamic shear modulus upon fluid saturation is highly dependent on the type of saturant, its viscosity, rock microstructure, and applied pressures. Frequency dispersion has some influence on dynamic elastic moduli too, but its effect is limited to the ultrasonic frequency ranges and above. We propose that viscous coupling, reduction in free surface energy, and, to a limited extent, frequency dispersion due to both local and global flow are the main mechanisms responsible for the change in dynamic shear elastic modulus upon fluid saturation and substitution, and we quantify influences.

Degradation pathway of bisphenol A: Does ipso substitution apply to phenols containing a quaternary alpha-carbon structure in the para position?

The degradation of bisphenol A and nonylphenol involves the unusual rearrangement of stable carboncarbon bonds. Some nonylphenol isomers and bisphenol A possess a quaternary alpha-carbon atom as a common structural feature. The degradation of nonylphenol in Sphingomonas sp. strain TTNP3 occurs via a type II ipso substitution with the presence of a quaternary alpha-carbon as a prerequisite. We report here a new degradation pathway of bisphenol A. Consequent to the hydroxylation at position C-4, according to a type 11 ipso substitution mechanism, the C-C bond between the phenolic moiety and the isopropyl group of bisphenol A is broken. Besides the formation of hydroquinone and 4-(2-hydroxypropan-2-yl) phenol as the main metabolites, further compounds resulting from molecular rearrangements consistent with a carbocationic intermediate were identified. Assays with resting cells or cell extracts of Sphingomonas sp. strain TTNP3 under an 18 02 atmosphere were performed. One atom of 180, was present in hydroquinone, resulting from the monooxygenation of bisphenol A and nonylphenol. The monooxygenase activity was dependent on both NADPH and flavin adenine dinucleotide. Various cytochrome P450 inhibitors had identical inhibition effects on the conversion of both xenobiotics. Using a mutant of Sphingomonas sp. strain TTNP3, which is defective for growth on nonylphenol, we demonstrated that the reaction is catalyzed by the same enzymatic system. In conclusion, the degradation of bisphenol A and nonylphenol is initiated by the same monooxygenase, which may also lead to ipso substitution in other xenobiotics containing phenol with a quaternary a-carbon.

Insights into the effects on metal binding of the systematic substitution of five key glutamate ligands in the ferritin of Escherichia coli

Ferritins are nearly ubiquitous iron storage proteins playing a fundamental role in iron metabolism. They are composed of 24 subunits forming a spherical protein shell encompassing a central iron storage cavity. The iron storage mechanism involves the initial binding and subsequent O-2-dependent oxidation of two Fe2+ ions located at sites A and B within the highly conserved dinuclear "ferroxidase center" in individual subunits. Unlike animal ferritins and the heme-containing bacterioferritins, the Escherichia coli ferritin possesses an additional iron-binding site (site C) located on the inner surface of the protein shell close to the ferroxidase center. We report the structures of five E. coli ferritin variants and their Fe3+ and Zn2+ (a redox-stable alternative for Fe2+) derivatives. Single carboxyl ligand replacements in sites A, B, and C gave unique effects on metal binding, which explain the observed changes in Fe2+ oxidation rates. Binding of Fe2+ at both A and B sites is clearly essential for rapid Fe2+ oxidation, and the linking of Fe-B(2+) to Fe-C(2+) enables the oxidation of three Fe2+ ions. The transient binding of Fe2+ at one of three newly observed Zn2+ sites may allow the oxidation of four Fe2+ by one dioxygen molecule.

Effect of chymosin reduction and salt substitution on the properties of white salted cheese

A whey salts mixture was used as a partial substitute for sodium chloride to provide a modified Na:K ratio (1:3.4) in the manufacture of white salted cheese using ultrafiltration. Reduction of chymosin addition from 20 to 8 mu L kg(-1) of cheese was also investigated. Variation of salt and chymosin levels did not result in any significant differences in composition and physicochemical properties. The rates of proteolysis in terms of water-soluble nitrogen (WSN) and nitrogen soluble in 12% trichloroacetic acid (TCA-SN) were affected by chymosin levels but not by salt treatment. Urea-PAGE electrophoretic analysis of caseins from the cheeses manufactured using three levels of chymosin and two salt types showed that the hydrolysis of alpha(s1)-casein was higher than for beta-caseins but the differences between the cheeses were not significant (P > 0.05). The chymosin level did not have a significant effect (P > 0.05) on hardness and fracturability, suggesting that any variation in hardness due to the initial hydrolysis was being confounded by other variables. Cheeses including the whey salts product were harder and more fracturable (P < 0.01) than the cheese treated with NaCl only. Both hardness and fracturability values decreased (P < 0.05) over the maturation period. The scores for bitterness were low; neither the effects of salt nor chymosin levels were significant (P > 0.05). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing the effect of allylic substitution on cyclic ammonium ylid rearrangements

The [2,3]-sigmatropic rearrangement of tetrahydropyridine-derived ammonium ylids is a valuable method for the preparation of substituted pyrrolidine carboxylates. The presence of an allylic substituent does not intrinsically reduce the yield of rearrangements, and the diastereoselectivity of rearrangement is related to the structure of the diazo reactant. The method represents a very rapid means of accessing complex pyrrolidines, as shown by preparation of a precursor to the core of lactacystin.

Substitution of dietary monounsaturated fatty acids for saturated fatty acids in a free-living population: a feasibility study

The fatty acid composition of the diet of seven free-living subjects (five men and two women) aged 41–56 years was altered for 1 month. The aim was to increase the intake of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) from subjects current habitual levels of 12% dietary energy to a target intake of 18% dietary energy, and to decrease saturated fatty acid (SFA) from habitual levels of 16% dietary energy to target levels of 10% dietary energy. The change in fatty acid intake was achieved by supplying volunteers with foods prepared using MUFA-containing spreads or olive oil (ready meals, sweet biscuits and cakes) and also by supplying spreads, cooking oil and MUFA-enriched milk for domestic use. Body weight and plasma total cholesterol measurements were made at baseline and at 2 and 4 weeks on the diet as an aid to maintaining subject compliance. MUFA consumption was significantly increased from 12% dietary energy to 16% dietary energy (P<0.01), and SFA intake was reduced from 16% dietary energy to 6% dietary energy (P<0.01) during the 4-week intervention. The diet failed to achieve the target increase in MUFA but exceeded the target reduction in SFA. This was due to the fact that subjects reduced their total fat intake from a mean habitual level of 38% dietary energy to a mean level of 30% dietary energy. During the dietary period, mean plasma cholesterol levels were lower at 2 weeks (P<0.01) and at 4 weeks (P<0.01) than the baseline, with a mean reduction of 20% over the dietary period. This study demonstrates the difficulty of achieving increased MUFA intakes (by SFA substitution) in free-living populations when only a limited range of fatty-acid modified food products are provided to volunteers.

Synthesis and evaluation of lipophilic BTBP ligands for An/Ln separation in nuclear waste treatment: the effect of alkyl substitution on extraction properties and implications for ligand design

Four new 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine (BTBP) ligands, which contain either additional alkyl groups on the pyridine rings or seven-membered aliphatic rings attached to the triazine rings, have been synthesized, and the effects of the additional alkyl substitution in the 4- and 4′-positions of the pyridine rings on their extraction properties with LnIII and AnIII cations in simulated nuclear waste solutions have been studied. The speciation of ligand 13 with some trivalent lanthanide nitrates was elucidated by 1H NMR spectroscopic titrations and ESI-MS. Although 13 formed both 1:1 and 1:2 complexes with LaIII and YIII, only 1:2 complexes were observed with EuIII and CeIII. Quite unexpectedly, both alkyl-substituted ligands 12 and 13 showed lower solubilities in certain diluents than the unsubstituted ligand CyMe4-BTBP. Compared to CyMe4-BTBP, alkyl-substitution was found to decrease the rates of metal-ion extraction of the ligands in both 1-octanol and cyclohexanone. A highly efficient (DAm > 10) and selective (SFAm/Eu > 90) extraction was observed for 12 and 13 in cyclohexanone and for 13 in 1-octanol in the presence of a phase-transfer agent. The implications of these results for the design of improved extractants for radioactive waste treatment are discussed.