Indirect population dynamic benefits of altered life-history trade-offs in response to egg harvesting

Variations in demographic rates due to differential resource allocation between individuals are important considerations in the development of accurate population dynamic models. Systematic harvesting can alter age structure and/or reduce population density, conferring indirect positive benefits on the source population as a result of a consequent redistribution of resources between the remaining individuals. Independently of effects mediated through changes in density and competition, demographic rates can also be influenced by within-individual competition for resources. Harvesting dependent life stages can reduce an individual's current reproductive costs, allowing increased investment in its future fecundity and survival. Although such changes in demographic rates are well known, there has been little exploration of the potential impact on population dynamics. We use empirical data collected from a successfully reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus to explore the population consequences of manipulating reproductive effort through harvesting. Consequent increases in an individual's future fecundity and survival allow source populations to withstand longer and more intensive harvesting regimes without being exposed to an increase in extinction risk, increasing maximum sustainable yields. These effects may also buffer populations against the impacts of stochastic events, but directional shifts in environmental conditions that increase reproductive costs may have detrimental population-level effects.

Vegetation development and human occupation in the Damascus region of southwestern Syria from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene

Rockshelter Baaz in the Damascus region of Syria provided a variety of botanical remains from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene period. These remains provide new information about the vegetation evolution in this region. The earliest occupational levels correspond with a moisture peak during the Late Pleistocene, between ca. 34-32 kyr b.p., when pine expanded. The next occupations took place during extreme arid conditions, ca. 23-21 kyr b.p., and probably during the Last Glacial Maximum when a steppe vegetation was established. The occupation level of the Younger Dryas, represented by Natufian remains, suggests that the area had been covered by almond-pistachio steppe, similar to later periods of the Early Holocene, and was probably located just outside the range of dense wild cereal stands. There is no drastic impact of the Younger Dryas visible on the vegetation in the botanical remains. The lack of fruits and seeds at Baaz indicates that the site was more likely to have been a temporary hunting post rather than a plant processing site for much of its history. It is ideally suited to this purpose because of its location over the Jaba'deen Pass and the associated springs. However, archaeological remains from the Natufian period, suggest that the site was more permanently occupied during this time.

Cortisol levels in response to starting school in children at increased risk for social phobia

Background: Research on depression has identified hyperactivity of the HPA axis as a potential contributory factor to the intergenerational transmission of affective symptoms. However, this has not yet been examined in the context of social phobia. The current study compared HPA axis activity in response to a universal social stressor (starting school) in children of 2 groups of women: one with social phobia and one with no history of anxiety (comparison group). To determine specificity of effects of maternal social phobia, a third group of children were also examined whose mothers had generalised anxiety disorder (GAD). Method: Children provided salivary cortisol samples in the morning, afternoon and at bedtime across 3 time-blocks surrounding the school start: a month before starting school (baseline), the first week at school (stress response), and the end of the first school term (stress recovery). Child behavioural inhibition at 14 months was also assessed to explore the influence of early temperament on later stress responses. Results: All children displayed an elevation in morning and afternoon cortisol from baseline during the first week at school, which remained elevated until the end of the first term. Children in the social phobia group, however, also displayed an equivalent elevation in bedtime cortisol, which was not observed for comparison children or for children of mothers with GAD. Children in the social phobia group who were classified as 'inhibited' at 14 months displayed significantly higher afternoon cortisol levels overall. Summary: A persistent stress response to school in the morning and afternoon is typical for all children, but children of mothers with social phobia also display atypical elevations in evening cortisol levels when at school - signalling long-term disruption of the circadian rhythm in HPA axis activity. This is the first study to report HPA axis disruption in children at risk of developing social phobia, and future research should aim to determine whether this represents a pathway for symptom development, taking early temperament into account.

Geoarchaeological investigations of midden-formation processes in the early to late Neolithic levels at Catalhoyuk, Turkey ca. 8550-8370 cal BP.

Anthropogenic midden deposits are remarkably well preserved at the Neolithic settlement of atalhöyük and provide significant archaeological information on the types and nature of activities occurring at the site. To decipher their complex stratigraphy and to investigate formation processes, a combination of geoarchaeological techniques was used. Deposits were investigated from the early ceramic to late Neolithic levels, targeting continuous sequences to examine high resolution and broader scale changes in deposition. Thin-section micromorphology combined with targeted phytolith and geochemical analyses indicates they are composed of a diverse range of ashes and other charred and siliceous plant materials, with inputs of decayed plants and organic matter, fecal waste, and sedimentary aggregates, each with diverse depositional pathways. Activities identified include in situ burning, with a range of different fuel types that may be associated with different activities. The complexity and heterogeneity of the midden deposits, and thus the necessity of employing an integrated microstratigraphic approach is demonstrated, as a prerequisite for cultural and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.