Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

Farm and socio-economic characteristics of smallholder milk producers and their influence on technology adoption in Central Mexico

In order to identify the factors influencing adoption of technologies promoted by government to small-scale dairy farmers in the highlands of central Mexico, a field survey was conducted. A total of 115 farmers were grouped through cluster analysis (CA) and divided into three wealth status categories (high, medium and low) using wealth ranking. Chi-square analysis was used to examine the association of wealth status with technology adoption. Four groups of farms were differentiated in terms of farms’ dimensions, farmers’ education, sources of incomes, wealth status, management of herd, monetary support by government and technological availability. Statistical differences (p < 0.05) were observed in the milk yield per herd per year among groups. Government organizations (GO) participated little in the promotion of the 17 technologies identified, six of which focused on crop or forage production and 11 of which were related to animal husbandry. Relatives and other farmers played an important role in knowledge diffusion and technology adoption. Although wealth status had a significant association (p < 0.05) with adoption, other factors including importance of the technology to farmers, usefulness and productive benefits of innovations together with farmers’ knowledge of them, were important. It is concluded that the analysis of the information per group and wealth status was useful to identify suitable crop or forage related and animal husbandry technologies per group and wealth status of farmers. Therefore the characterizations of farmers could provide a useful starting point for the design and delivery of more appropriate and effective extension.

A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances

Effects of desiccation on seed germination, cracking, fungal infection and survival in storage of Sterculia foetida L

Seeds of Sterculia foetida were tested for germination following desiccation and subsequent hermetic storage. Whereas seeds at 10.3% moisture content were intact and provided 98% germination, further desiccation reduced germination substantially. The majority of seed coats had cracked after desiccation to 5.1% moisture content. Ability to germinate was not reduced after 12 months' hermetic storage at 10.3% and 7.3% moisture content at 15 degrees C or -18 degrees C, but was reduced considerably at 5.1%. Fungal infection was detected consistently for cracked seeds in germination tests and they did not germinate. However, almost all embryos extracted from cracked seeds germinated if first disinfected with sodium hypochlorite (1%, 5 minutes). In addition. 80 -100% of disinfected extracted embryos from cracked seeds stored hermetically for 28 d at -18 degrees C or -82 degrees C with 3.3% to 6.0% moisture content, and excised embryos stored in this way, were able to germinate. Hence. failure of the very dry seeds of Sterculia foetida to germinate was not due to embryo death from desiccation but to cracking increasing susceptibility to fungal infection upon rehydration. Cracking was associated negatively and strongly with relative humidity and appears to be a mechanical consequence of substantial differences between the isotherms of whole seeds compared with cotyledons and axes.

The joint effects of larval density and C-14-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

1. Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2. Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of C-14-cypermethrin in a sediment-water test system for 67 days at 20 +/- 1 degreesC. 3. Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to C-14-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. C-14-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of C-14-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations.