Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models

Planning for development or decline? Education policy for Chinese language in Singapore

This article examines how political discourse, language ideologies, recent Chinese curriculum reforms, and their representations in the media are inextricably related. Using the Speak Mandarin Campaign as background for the inquiry, I focus on textual features of the various media sources, TV advertisements, campaign slogans, official speeches, and newspaper excerpts to illuminate the status and changing role of the Chinese language in Singapore’s sociocultural, economic, and political development. Using critical discourse analysis as an analytical framework, I examine the contradictory ideologies that underpin the government’s language policies and planning activities. On the one hand, the government emphasizes the cultural and economic values of the Chinese language; on the other hand, government schools teach Chinese as a subject. In particular, the recent reforms in Chinese language curriculum have arguably further diluted the content of teaching. In addition I point out how conflicting ideologies behind language policies can lead to cultural confusion and educational uncertainty. These mixed messages make it difficult for schools to offer a consistent language education curriculum that will help students appreciate the value, be it economic, cultural or educational, of the Chinese language.

Comparison of small and large deformation rheological properties of wheat dough and gluten

The rheological properties of dough and gluten are important for end-use quality of flour but there is a lack of knowledge of the relationships between fundamental and empirical tests and how they relate to flour composition and gluten quality. Dough and gluten from six breadmaking wheat qualities were subjected to a range of rheological tests. Fundamental (small-deformation) rheological characterizations (dynamic oscillatory shear and creep recovery) were performed on gluten to avoid the nonlinear influence of the starch component, whereas large deformation tests were conducted on both dough and gluten. A number of variables from the various curves were considered and subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) to get an overview of relationships between the various variables. The first component represented variability in protein quality, associated with elasticity and tenacity in large deformation (large positive loadings for resistance to extension and initial slope of dough and gluten extension curves recorded by the SMS/Kieffer dough and gluten extensibility rig, and the tenacity and strain hardening index of dough measured by the Dobraszczyk/Roberts dough inflation system), the elastic character of the hydrated gluten proteins (large positive loading for elastic modulus [G'], large negative loadings for tan delta and steady state compliance [J(e)(0)]), the presence of high molecular weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) 5+10 vs. 2+12, and a size distribution of glutenin polymers shifted toward the high-end range. The second principal component was associated with flour protein content. Certain rheological data were influenced by protein content in addition to protein quality (area under dough extension curves and dough inflation curves [W]). The approach made it possible to bridge the gap between fundamental rheological properties, empirical measurements of physical properties, protein composition, and size distribution. The interpretation of this study gave indications of the molecular basis for differences in breadmaking performance.

A reappraisal of blood clotting response tests for anticoagulant resistance and a proposal for a standardised BCR test methodology

Blood clotting response (BCR) resistance tests are available for a number of anticoagulant rodenticides. However, during the development of these tests many of the test parameters have been changed, making meaningful comparisons between results difficult. It was recognised that a standard methodology was urgently required for future BCR resistance tests and, accordingly, this document presents a reappraisal of published tests, and proposes a standard protocol for future use (see Appendix). The protocol can be used to provide information on the incidence and degree of resistance in a particular rodent population; to provide a simple comparison of resistance factors between active ingredients, thus giving clear information about cross-resistance for any given strain; and to provide comparisons of susceptibility or resistance between different populations. The methodology has a sound statistical basis in being based on the ED50 response, and requires many fewer animals than the resistance tests in current use. Most importantly, tests can be used to give a clear indication of the likely practical impact of the resistance on field efficacy. The present study was commissioned and funded by the Rodenticide Resistance Action Committee (RRAC) of CropLife International.

Inclusive approaches to teaching and learning mathematics

This chapter explores the role of mentors in supporting pre-service teachers to include all children in mathematics teaching, no matter what their individual needs.

Criteria for validation and selection of cognitive tests for investigating the effects of foods and nutrients.

This review is an output of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Europe Marker Initiative, which aims to identify evidence-based criteria for selecting adequate measures of nutrient effects on health through comprehensive literature review. Experts in cognitive and nutrition sciences examined the applicability of these proposed criteria to the field of cognition with respect to the various cognitive domains usually assessed to reflect brain or neurological function. This review covers cognitive domains important in the assessment of neuronal integrity and function, commonly used tests and their state of validation, and the application of the measures to studies of nutrition and nutritional intervention trials. The aim is to identify domain-specific cognitive tests that are sensitive to nutrient interventions and from which guidance can be provided to aid the application of selection criteria for choosing the most suitable tests for proposed nutritional intervention studies using cognitive outcomes. The material in this review serves as a background and guidance document for nutritionists, neuropsychologists, psychiatrists, and neurologists interested in assessing mental health in terms of cognitive test performance and for scientists intending to test the effects of food or food components on cognitive function.