A review of palaeoclimates and palaeoenvironments in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5000 years BP: setting the environmental background for the evolution of human civilisation

The southern Levant has a long history of human habitation and it has been previously suggested that climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene stimulated changes in human behaviour and society. In order to evaluate such linkages, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of the climate record. We have conducted an extensive and up-to-date review of terrestrial and marine climatic conditions in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean during the last 25,000 years. We firstly present data from general circulation models (GCMs) simulating the climate for the last glacial maximum (LGM), and evaluate the output of the model by reference to geological climate proxy data. We consider the types of climate data available from different environments and proxies and then present the spatial climatic "picture" for key climatic events. This exercise suggests that the major Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations of the last 25,000 years are recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levantine region. However, this review also highlights problems and inadequacies with the existing data. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August

The Bonin high is a subtropical anticyclone that is predominant near Japan in the summer. This anticyclone is associated with an equivalent-barotropic structure, often extending throughout the entire troposphere. Although the equivalent-barotropic structure of the Bonin high has been known for years among synopticians because of its importance to the summer climate in east Asia, there are few dynamical explanations for such a structure. The present paper attempts to provide a formation mechanism for the deep ridge near Japan. We propose a new hypothesis that this equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan is formed as a result of the propagation of stationary Rossby waves along the Asian jet in the upper troposphere (‘the Silk Road pattern’). First, the monthly mean climatology is examined in order to demonstrate this hypothesis. It is shown that the enhanced Asian jet in August is favourable for the propagation of stationary Rossby waves and that the regions of descent over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Aral Sea act as two major wave sources. Second, a primitive-equation model is used to simulate the climatology of August. The model successfully simulates the Bonin high with an equivalent-barotropic structure. The upper-tropospheric ridge is found to be enhanced by a height anomaly of more than 80 m at 200 hPa, when a wave packet arrives. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to show that the removal of the diabatic cooling over the Asian jet suppresses the Silk Road pattern and formation of an equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan, while the removal of the diabatic heating in the western Pacific does not. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Genetic structure and systematic relationships within the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate (Orchidaceae: Orchidinae): high diversity in Kent and a wind-induced discontinuity bisecting the Adriatic

A recent phylogenetic study based on multiple datasets is used as the framework for a more detailed examination of one of the ten molecularly circumscribed groups identified, the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate. The group is highly morphologically variable, prone to phenotypic convergence, shows low levels of sequence divergence and contains an unusually large proportion of threatened taxa, including the rarest Ophrys species in the UK. The aims of this study were to (a) circumscribe minimum resolvable genetically distinct entities within the O. fuciflora aggregate, and (b) assess the likelihood of gene flow between genetically and geographically distinct entities at the species and population levels. Fifty-five accessions sampled in Europe and Asia Minor from the O. fuciflora aggregate were studied using the AFLP genetic fingerprinting technique to evaluate levels of infraspecific and interspecific genetic variation and to assess genetic relationships between UK populations of O. fuciflora s.s. in Kent and in their continental European and Mediterranean counterparts. The two genetically and geographically distinct groups recovered, one located in England and central Europe and one in south-eastern Europe, are incongruent with current species delimitation within the aggregate as a whole and also within O. fuciflora s.s. Genetic diversity is higher in Kent than in the rest of western and central Europe. Gene flow is more likely to occur between populations in closer geographical proximity than those that are morphologically more similar. Little if any gene flow occurs between populations located in the south-eastern Mediterranean and those dispersed throughout the remainder of the distribution, revealing a genetic discontinuity that runs north-south through the Adriatic. This discontinuity is also evident in other clades of Ophrys and is tentatively attributed to the long-term influence of prevailing winds on the long-distance distribution of pollinia and especially seeds. A cline of gene flow connects populations from Kent and central and southern Europe; these individuals should therefore be considered part of an extensive meta-population. Gene flow is also evident among populations from Kent, which appear to constitute a single metapopulation. They show some evidence of hybridization, and possibly also introgression, with O. apifera.

Timing and climatic imprint of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from Northern Turkey

A 50 kyr-long exceptionally well-dated and highly resolved stalagmite oxygen (δ 18O) and carbon (δ 13C) isotope record from Sofular Cave in northwestern Turkey helps to further improve the dating of Greenland Interstadials (GI) 1, and 3–12. Timing of most GI in the Sofular record is consistent within ±10 to 300 years with the “iconic” Hulu Cave record. Larger divergences (>500 years) between Sofular and Hulu are only observed for GI 4 and 7. The Sofular record differs from the most recent NGRIP chronology by up to several centuries, whereas age offsets do not increase systematically with depth. The Sofular record also reveals a rapid and sensitive climate and ecosystem response in the eastern Mediterranean to GI, whereas a phase lag of ∼100 years between climate and full ecosystem response is evident. Finally, results of spectral analyses of the Sofular isotope records do not support a 1,470-year pacing of GI.

Climate on the Southern Black Sea coast during the Holocene: implications from the Sofular Cave record

We present the updated Holocene section of the Sofular Cave record from the southernBlackSeacoast (northern Turkey); an area with considerably different present-day climate compared to that of the neighboring Eastern Mediterranean region. Stalagmite δ13C, growth rates and initial (234U/238U) ratios provide information about hydrological changes above the cave; and prove to be more useful than δ18O for deciphering Holocene climatic variations. Between ∼9.6 and 5.4 ka BP (despite a pause from ∼8.4 to 7.8 ka BP), the Sofular record indicates a remarkable increase in rainfall amount and intensity, in line with other paleoclimate studies in the Eastern Mediterranean. During that period, enhanced summertime insolation either produced much stronger storms in the following fall and winter through high sea surface temperatures, or it invoked a regional summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. We suggest that one or both of these climatic mechanisms led to a coupling of the BlackSea and the Mediterranean rainfall regimes at that time, which can explain the observed proxy signals. However, there are discrepancies among the Eastern Mediterranean records in terms of the timing of this wet period; implying that changes were probably not always occurring through the same mechanism. Nevertheless, the Sofular Cave record does provide hints and bring about new questions about the connection between regional and large scale climates, highlighting the need for a more extensive network of high quality paleoclimate records to better understand Holoceneclimate.

Using the significant dust deposition event on the glaciers of Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009 to develop a method for dating and "provenancing" of desert dust events recorded in snow pack

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution “provenancing” of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the “provenancing” of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.

Using the significant dust deposition event on the glaciers of Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009 to develop a method for dating and provenancing of desert dust events recorded in snow pack.

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution provenancing of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm and the dominant mode of 0.60 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite and oxides of aluminium, manganese, and magnesium. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the provenancing of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.

Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.

Middle and Late Pleistocene humid periods recorded in palaeolake deposits of the Nafud desert, Saudi Arabia

Present climate in the Nafud desert of northern Saudi Arabia is hyper-arid and moisture brought by north-westerly winds scarcely reaches the region. The existence of abundant palaeolake sediments provides evidence for a considerably wetter climate in the past. However, the existing chronological framework of these deposits is solely based on radiocarbon dating of questionable reliability, due to potential post-depositional contamination with younger 14C. By using luminescence dating, we show that the lake deposits were not formed between 40 and 20 ka as suggested previously, but approximately ca 410 ka, 320 ka, 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka ago. All of these humid phases are in good agreement with those recorded in lake sediments and speleothems from southern Arabia. Surprisingly, no Holocene lake deposits were identified. Geological characteristics of the deposits and diatom analysis suggest that a single, perennial lake covered the entire south-western Nafud ca 320 ka ago. In contrast, lakes of the 200 ka, 125 ka, and 100 ka humid intervals were smaller and restricted to interdune depressions of a pre-existing dune relief. The concurrent occurrence of humid phases in the Nafud, southern Arabia and the eastern Mediterranean suggests that moisture in northern Arabia originated either from the Mediterranean due to more frequent frontal depression systems or from stronger Indian monsoon circulation, respectively. However, based on previously published climate model simulations and palaecolimate evidence from central Arabia and the Negev desert, we argue that humid climate conditions in the Nafud were probably caused by a stronger African monsoon and a distinct change in zonal atmospheric circulation.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary