'Thou glorious kingdome, thou chiefe of empires': Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature

Bringing together a range of little-considered materials, this article assesses the portrayal of Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature and drama. In particular it argues that such texts use their awareness of Islamic sectarian division to portray Persia as a good potential trading partner in preference to the Ottoman Empire. A close reading of John Day, William Rowley and George Wilkins’ The Travailes of the Three English Brothers (1607) demonstrates how the play develops a fantasy model of how relations between Persia and England might function. The potential unity between England and Persia, imagined in terms of both religion and trade, demonstrates how Persia figured as a model ‘other England’ in early modern literature.

The “Great Queen of Lightninge Flashes”: the transmission of female-voiced burlesque poetry in the early seventeenth century

The essay uncovers evidence for the construction of the ‘woman author’ in the largely male vogue for bawdy burlesque poetry by tracing the circulation of a pair of verses through seventeenth-century manuscript and print miscellanies. It argues that just as these verses are reworked and recontextualised through the process of transmission, so to their ‘authors’ are re-embodied and ascribed different identities in different publication contexts. Female-voiced bawdy poetry raises particular problems for authorial attribution, rather than searching for the real woman behind the text, the essay examines how the ‘authors’ of female-voiced bawdy poetry were produced and reproduced through shifting formal frameworks and socioliterary networks.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

'King Lear' by William Shakespeare

Critical Edition, with full sources, notes and commentary, of William Shakespeare, King Lear.

Chaucer's presence in songes and sonettes

In an elegy to Wyatt published in Tottel’s Miscellany, Surrey claims that Wyatt ‘reft Chaucer the glory of his wit’. This statement, which both lauds and resists Chaucer, is a microcosm of the way Chaucer is treated throughout the Miscellany. In examining the collection’s paradoxical attitude to Chaucer, this essay focuses particularly on the Squire’s Tale, the Franklin’s Tale, Anelida and Arcite, the Legend of Good Women, and several short lyrics. In its interest in courtly love poetry and Petrarch, the Miscellany follows a trajectory in English poetry set by Chaucer. Its courtly verse is saturated with words, phrases, and tropes from his poetry. Rhyme royal, which he introduced into English poetry, is widely used. The Canterbury Tales has been fully assimilated and can be referred to allusively with the same confidence of the audience’s knowledge as is the case when referring to classical myth; in Wyatt’s ‘Myne owne Jhon Poins’, the speaker, disclaiming deceitfulness, says that he cannot ‘say that Pan/ Passeth Appollo in musike manifold:/ Praise syr Topas for a noble tale,/ And scorne the story that the knight tolde’ (lines 48-50). However, Chaucer’s poetry is also downplayed and contested in the Miscellany. ‘Truth’, the only poem of his which appears in the volume, is disingenuously placed in the ‘Uncertain Authors’ section. In addition, some of the most important elements of his work are strongly resisted in the Miscellany, either ignored, dismissed or challenged. These elements include Chaucer’s interest in variety of voice, his sympathetic engagement with women, particularly wronged women, and his interest in female speech and particularly female complaint. The Miscellany, by contrast, is dominated by male-voiced lyrics preoccupied with the pain inflicted on the lover by a lady who is frequently unfeeling, cruel, or faithless. Chaucer’s frequent focus on the cynical seduction and betrayal of female by male is reversed in the Miscellany, and the language and metaphors he uses to express male cruelty (e.g. the word ‘newfangleness’ and images of hooks, nets and traps) are usurped to describe the lady’s cruelty to the suffering lover. On occasion, poems in the Miscellany challenge specific Chaucerian texts; ‘On His Love Named White’ throws down a gauntlet to The Book of the Duchess, while two of Surrey’s poems implicitly take issue with the female falcon’s voice in the Squire’s Tale, giving the deceitful tercelet the opportunity to shout down the falcon’s charges. The essay thus shows that in many respects Tottel’s Miscellany is only superficially Chaucerian, and that it both passively and actively takes issue with Chaucer’s work.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.