Croft Moraig and the chronology of stone circles

The Perthshire stone circle of Croft Moraig was excavated 40 years ago and is usually taken to illustrate the classic sequence at such monuments in Britain. A timber setting, accompanied by a shallow ditch, was replaced by two successive stone settings. The pottery associated with the earliest construction was dated to the Neolithic period. A new analysis of the excavated material suggests that, in fact, the ceramics are Middle or Late Bronze Age. They provide a terminus post quem for at least one of the stone settings on the site. Further study of the evidence suggests an alternative sequence of construction at Croft Moraig, involving a change in the axis of the monument. It seems possible that other stone and timber circles were equally late in date and that their period of use in Britain and Ireland may have been longer than is generally supposed.

Chronology for the Aegean Late Bronze Age 1700-1400 BC

Radiocarbon (carbon-14) data from the Aegean Bronze Age 1700-1400 B.C. show that the Santorini (Thera) eruption must have occurred in the late 17th century B.C. By using carbon-14 dates from the surrounding region, cultural phases, and Bayesian statistical analysis, we established a chronology for the initial Aegean Late Bronze Age cultural phases (Late Minoan IA, IB, and II). This chronology contrasts with conventional archaeological dates and cultural synthesis: stretching out the Late Minoan IA, IB, and II phases by similar to 100 years and requiring reassessment of standard interpretations of associations between the Egyptian and Near Eastern historical dates and phases and those in the Aegean and Cyprus in the mid-second millennium B.C.

Extinction processes in hotspots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

Immigration, species radiation and extinction in a highly diverse songbird lineage: white-eyes on Indian Ocean islands

Molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of species-rich lineages in regions where geological history can be reliably inferred may provide insights into the scale of processes driving diversification. Here we sample all extant or recently extinct white-eye (Zosterops) taxa of the southwest Indian Ocean, combined with samples from all principal continental lineages. Results support a high dispersal capability, with at least two independent continental sources for white-eyes of the region. An early (within 1.8 million years ago) expansion into the Indian Ocean may have originated either from Asia or Africa; the three resulting lineages show a disparate distribution consistent with considerable extinction following their arrival. Africa is supported as the origin of a later expansion into the region (within 1.2 million years ago). On two islands, a pair of Zosterops species derived from independent immigrations into the Indian Ocean co-occur or may have formerly co-occurred, providing strong support for their origin by double-island colonization rather than within-island (sympatric or microallopatric) speciation. On Mauritius and La Reunion, phylogenetic placement of sympatric white-eyes allow us to rule out a scenario in which independent within-island speciation occurred on both islands; one of the species pairs must have arisen by double colonization, while the other pair is likely to have arisen by the same mechanism. Long-distance immigration therefore appears to be responsible for much of the region's white-eye diversity. Independent immigrations into the region have resulted in lineages with mutually exclusive distributions and it seems likely that competition with congeneric species, rather than arrival frequency, may limit present-day diversity.

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

Evolution or extinction? Reflections on the future of research in educational leadership and management

Consideration of the quality, relevance and utility of research in educational leadership and management has been a growing concern of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, but there is little agreement about its current state or priorities for development. The article reflects on the key criticisms that have been made of research in educational leadership and management in this issue, and elsewhere. It considers how we might begin to devise better ways of understanding its audiences, judging its quality and identifying priorities for the future. It argues that the research reflects its capture by those with particular interests or values, and impacts in ways which are complex and indirect. If educational leadership and management research is to be secure in its perceived value and contribution in the future, several developments are needed, including a greater emphasis on interdisciplinarity, an expansion of the range of methodologies, particularly qualtitative studies; and these shifts must be evident in training researchers as well as in the conduct of research.

A variational method to retrieve the extinction profile in liquid clouds using multiple field-of-view lidar

Liquid clouds play a profound role in the global radiation budget but it is difficult to remotely retrieve their vertical profile. Ordinary narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidars receive a strong return from such clouds but the information is limited to the first few optical depths. Wideangle multiple-FOV lidars can isolate radiation scattered multiple times before returning to the instrument, often penetrating much deeper into the cloud than the singly-scattered signal. These returns potentially contain information on the vertical profile of extinction coefficient, but are challenging to interpret due to the lack of a fast radiative transfer model for simulating them. This paper describes a variational algorithm that incorporates a fast forward model based on the time-dependent two-stream approximation, and its adjoint. Application of the algorithm to simulated data from a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar with a maximum footprint width of 600m suggests that this approach should be able to retrieve the extinction structure down to an optical depth of around 6, and total opticaldepth up to at least 35, depending on the maximum lidar FOV. The convergence behavior of Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton optimization schemes are compared. We then present results from an application of the algorithm to observations of stratocumulus by the 8-FOV airborne “THOR” lidar. It is demonstrated how the averaging kernel can be used to diagnose the effective vertical resolution of the retrieved profile, and therefore the depth to which information on the vertical structure can be recovered. This work enables exploitation of returns from spaceborne lidar and radar subject to multiple scattering more rigorously than previously possible.

Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

Effects of drugs that potentiate GABA on extinction of positively-reinforced operant behaviour

Extinction following positively reinforced operant conditioning reduces response frequency, at least in part through the aversive or frustrative effects of non-reinforcement. According to J.A. Gray's theory, non-reinforcement activates the behavioural inhibition system which in turn causes anxiety. As predicted, anxiolytic drugs including benzodiazepines affect the operant extinction process. Recent studies have shown that reducing GABA-mediated neurotransmission retards extinction of aversive conditioning. We have shown in a series of studies that anxiolytic compounds that potentiate GABA facilitate extinction of positively reinforced fixed-ratio operant behaviour in C57B1/6 male mice. This effect does not occur in the early stages of extinction, nor is it dependent on cumulative effects of the compound administered. Potentiation of GABA at later stages has the effect of increasing sensitivity to the extinction contingency and facilitates the inhibition of the behaviour that is no longer required. The GABAergic hypnotic, zolpidem, has the same selective effects on operant extinction in this procedure. The effects of zolpidem are not due to sedative action. There is evidence across our series of experiments that different GABA-A subtype receptors are involved in extinction facilitation and anxiolysis. Consequently, this procedure may not be an appropriate model for anxiolytic drug action, but it may be a useful technique for analysing the neural bases of extinction and designing therapeutic interventions in humans where failure to extinguish inappropriate behaviours can lead to pathological conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder.

Effects of chlordiazepoxide on extinction and re-acquisition of operant behaviour in mice

Relatively little is known about the role of the inhibitory neurotransmitter gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in extinction of appetitively motivated tasks. The benzodiazepine (BZ) chlordiazepoxide (CDP) was administered during extinction and re-acquisition of lever pressing by mice following food reinforced discrete-trial fixed-ratio 5 (FR-5) training. Typical FR behaviour was established during baseline training and persisted for several extinction sessions. There were 15 extinction sessions in all, followed by six re-acquisition sessions where food reinforcement was re-introduced. In a 2x2x2 between-group design, CDP (15 mg/kg) or vehicle injections were given prior to either the last two food reinforcement sessions and the first 10 extinction sessions, or the final five extinction sessions, or the six re-acquisition sessions. Initially CDP had no effect on the rate of extinction, but after several extinction sessions it significantly facilitated it. Surprisingly, if CDP was administered only after several sessions of extinction, it immediately produced facilitation. Thus the delayed effects of CDP are not due to drug accumulation. These data suggest that some neural change must occur before CDP can affect extinction processes. In re-acquisition sessions, CDP facilitated the reinstatement of food-reinforced lever pressing. Implications for neural and behavioural accounts of operant extinction are discussed.