The Mystery of Privity: Grand Trunk Railway Company of Canada v Robinson (1915)

This article examines a little known decision of the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council: Grand Trunk Railway Company of Canada v Robinson (1915). The examination is historical and it provides a different insight into the understanding of privity of contract, a doctrine central to contract law. The examination reveals a process of trans-Atlantic legal migration in which English law was applied to resolve an Ontario case. The nature of the resolution is surprising because it appears to conflict with the better known decision of the House of Lords, Dunlop Pneumatic Tyre Company, Limited v Selfridge and Company, Limited, which a similarly constituted panel delivered in the same week. This article argues that there was a greater malleability in the resolution of cases concerned with privity than was thought to have existed. It is also argued that the power of Canadian railway capitalism is a significant factor in understanding the legal resolution of the case. Finally, it the article considers the use of English and American precedents relevant to the case. The application of English precedents to the case led to a resolution not entirely befitting Canadian conditions.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

Role of genetic polymorphism peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 Pro12Ala on ethnic susceptibility to diabetes in South-Asian and Caucasian subjects: Evidence for heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma Pro12ala polymorphism modulates susceptibility to diabetes in South Asians. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: South Asians (n = 697) and Caucasians (n = 457) living in Dallas/Forth Worth, Texas, and South Asians living in Chennai, India (n = 1,619), were enrolled for this study. PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala was determined using restriction fragment-length polymorphism. Insulin responsiveness to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was measured in nondiabetic subjects. RESULTS: The Caucasian diabetic subjects had significantly lower prevalence of PPAR-gamma 12Ala when compared with the Caucasian nondiabetic subjects (20 vs. 9%, P = 0.006). However, there were no significant differences between diabetic and nondiabetic subjects with reference to the Pro12Ala polymorphism among the South Asians living in Dallas (20 vs. 23%) and in India (19 vs. 19.3%). Although Caucasians carrying PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala had lower plasma insulin levels at 2 h of OGTT than the wild-type (Pro/Pro) carriers (76 +/- 68 and 54 +/- 33 microU/ml, respectively, P = 0.01), no differences in either fasting or 2-h plasma insulin concentrations were found between South Asians carrying the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism and those with the wild-type genotype at either Chennai or Dallas. CONCLUSIONS: Although further replication studies are necessary to test the validity of the described genotype-phenotype relationship, our study supports the hypothesis that the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism is protective against diabetes in Caucasians but not in South Asians.

South Africa and constructive engagement: lessons learned?

There has been much criticism of President Mbeki's policy of constructive engagement towards Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe. This has grown since 2000 as the crisis has continued to worsen. This article compares Pretoria's current approach with the Reagan administration's constructive engagement towards Pretoria in the 1980s. Washington made a number of significant mistakes in the design and implementation of this policy and each of these is examined. An investigation of Mbeki's actions concludes that he is currently committing many of the same errors. Not only does this damage Mbeki's credibility, it also damages the credibility of a vital diplomatic tool - reducing constructive engagement once again to a diplomatic fig leaf to cover 'business as usual' with a rogue state.

African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15 degreesN is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15 degreesN is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15 degreesN over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10 degreesN, 10 degreesW), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release. Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10 degrees and 15 degreesN, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Chemistry and biology of maculalactone A from the marine cyanobacterium Kyrtuthrix maculans

Maculalactone A is the most abundant secondary metabolite in Kyrtuthrix maculans, a marine cyanobacterium found in the mid-high shore of moderately exposed to sheltered rocky shores in Hong Kong and South East Asia. This species appears to survive as pure colonies forming distinct black zones on the rock. Maculalactone A may provide K. maculans with a chemical defense against several marine organisms, including the common grazer, Chlorostoma argyrostoma and settlement by larvae of the barnacles, Tetraclita japonica, Balanus amphitrite and Ibla cumingii. The natural concentration of maculalactone A varied with season and also with tidal height on the shore and although a strong positive linear correlation was observed between maculalactone A concentration and herbivore grazing pressure, manipulative experiments demonstrated that grazing pressure was not directly responsible for inducing the biosynthesis of this metabolite. The potential of maculalactone A as a natural marine anti-fouling agent (i.e. as an alternative to environmentally-damaging copper- and tin-based anti-fouling paints) was investigated after achieving a gram-scale synthesis of this compound. Preliminary field trials with anti-fouling paints which contained synthetic maculalactone A as the active principle have confirmed that this compound seems to have a specific activity against molluscan settlers.

British railways and the challenge from road haulage: 1919-39

Interwar Britain witnessed the rapid rise of road transport as a serious competitor to the railways. This article examines road–rail competition for freight traffic. It demonstrates that, contrary to previous accounts—which have been highly critical of the railway companies—their failure to prevent rapid loss of traffic to the roads was the inevitable consequence of the regulatory framework under which the railways had been returned to private control in 1921. Given the constraints imposed by this framework, price competition with road hauliers would have further depressed railway company profits. Railway policy thus concentrated on pressing for a revision of the legislative framework governing road–rail competition.

Issues in language and development in multilingual settings: a case-study of knowledge exchange and teacher education in South Africa

The quality of a country’s human-resource base can be said to determine its level of success in social and economic development. This study focuses on some␣of the major human-resource development issues that surround the implementation of South Africa’s policy of multilingualism in education. It begins by discussing the relationship between knowledge, language, and human-resource, social and economic development within the global cultural economy. It then considers the situation in South Africa and, in particular, the implications of that country’s colonial and neo-colonial past for attempts to implement the new policy. Drawing on the linguistic-diversity-in-education debate in the United Kingdom of the past three decades, it assesses the first phase of an in-service teacher-education programme that was carried out at the Project for Alternative Education in South Africa (PRAESA) based at the University of Cape Town. The authors identify key short- and long-term issues related to knowledge exchange in education in multilingual societies, especially concerning the use of African languages as mediums for teaching and learning.