Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading

The Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology (BABAO) held at the University of Reading in 2007. Contents: 1) A life course perspective of growing up in medieval London: evidence of sub-adult health from St Mary Spital (London) (Rebecca Redfern and Don Walker); 2) Preservation of non-adult long bones from an almshouse cemetery in the United States dating to the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries (Colleen Milligan, Jessica Zotcavage and Norman Sullivan); 3) Childhood oral health: dental palaeopathology of Kellis 2, Dakhleh, Egypt. A preliminary investigation (Stephanie Shukrum and JE Molto); 4) Skeletal manifestation of non-adult scurvy from early medieval Northumbria: the Black Gate cemetery, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Diana Mahoney-Swales and Pia Nystrom); 5) Infantile cortical hyperostosis: cases, causes and contradictions (Mary Lewis and Rebecca Gowland); 6) Biological Anthropology Tuberculosis of the hip in the Victorian Britain (Benjamin Clarke and Piers Mitchell); 7) The re-analysis of Iron Age human skeletal material from Winnall Down (Justine Tracey); 8) Can we estimate post-mortem interval from an individual body part? A field study using sus scrofa (Branka Franicevec and Robert Pastor); 9) The expression of asymmetry in hand bones from the medieval cemetery at Écija, Spain (Lisa Cashmore and Sonia Zakrezewski); 10) Returning remains: a curator’s view (Quinton Carroll); 11) Authority and decision making over British human remains: issues and challenges (Piotr Bienkowski and Malcolm Chapman); 12) Ethical dimensions of reburial, retention and repatriation of archaeological human remains: a British perspective (Simon Mays and Martin Smith); 13) The problem of provenace: inaccuracies, changes and misconceptions (Margaret Clegg); 14) Native American human remains in UK collections: implications of NAGPRA to consultation, repatriation, and policy development (Myra J Giesen); 15) Repatriation – a view from the receiving end: New Zealand (Nancy Tayles).

Investigating age related changes in taste and affects on sensory perceptions of oral nutritional supplements

Background: sip feeds are oral nutritional supplements (ONSs) that are commonly prescribed to malnourished patients to improve their nutritional and clinical status. However, ONSs are poorly consumed and frequently wasted, with sweetness being identified as one of the factors leading to patients’ dislike of ONSs. Objectives: to investigate if age affects sweetness thresholds and if this impacts upon perceived sweetness intensity, hedonic (sweetness and overall) and ranked preference of ONS products. Design: prospective, observational. Subjects: thirty-six young adults (18–33 years) and 48 healthy older adults (63–85 years). Setting: Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences and the Clinical Health Sciences at the University of Reading. Methods: detection and recognition threshold levels, basic taste identification and ‘just about right’ level of sweetness were examined. Three ONSs (chocolate, vanilla, strawberry) and sucrose solutions were evaluated for hedonic sweetness, overall hedonic liking, sweetness intensity and rank preference. Results: significant differences were found in both sweetness detection and recognition thresholds (P = 0.0001) between young and older adults, with older adults more likely to incorrectly identify the taste (P = 0.0001). Despite the deterioration in sweetness sensitivity among the older adults, there were no significant differences found in sweetness intensity perceived for the ONS products presented (P > 0.05) when compared with the young adults. However, across both groups sweetness intensity was found to be correlated with overall product dislike across all flavour variants tested (R = 0.398, P = 0.0001). Conclusions: sweetness appears to be one of many factors contributing to the dislike of ONSs. Manufacturers are encouraged to reconsider the formulations of these products so that beneficial effects of ONSs can be delivered in a more palatable and acceptable form and wastage reduced.

The effect of consumption volume on profile and liking of oral nutritional supplements of varied sweetness: sequential profiling and boredom tests

Oral nutrition supplements (ONS) are routinely prescribed to those with, or at risk of, malnutrition. Previous research identified poor compliance due to taste and sweetness. This paper investigates taste and hedonic liking of ONS, of varying sweetness and metallic levels, over consumption volume; an important consideration as patients are prescribed large volumes of ONS daily. A sequential descriptive profile was developed to determine the perception of sensory attributes over repeat consumption of ONS. Changes in liking of ONS following repeat consumption were characterised by a boredom test. Certain flavour (metallic taste, soya milk flavour) and mouthfeel (mouthdrying, mouthcoating) attributes built up over increased consumption volume (p 0.002). Hedonic liking data from two cohorts, healthy older volunteers (n = 32, median age 73) and patients (n = 28, median age 85), suggested such build-up was disliked. Efforts made to improve the palatability of ONS must take account of the build up of taste and mouthfeel characteristics over increased consumption volume.

Consistently inconsistent: commercially available starch-based Dysphagia products

Individuals with dysphagia may be prescribed thickened fluids to promote a safer and more successful swallow. Starch-based thickening agents are often employed; however, these exhibit great variation in consistency. The aim of this study was to compare viscosity and the rheological profile parameters complex (G*), viscous (G″), and elastic modulus (G′) over a range of physiological shear rates. UK commercially available dysphagia products at “custard” consistency were examined. Commercially available starch-based dysphagia products were prepared according to manufacturers’ instructions; the viscosity and rheological parameters were tested on a CVOR Rheometer. At a measured shear rate of 50 s−1, all products fell within the viscosity limits defined according to the National Dysphagia Diet Task Force guidelines. However, at lower shear rates, large variations in viscosity were observed. Rheological parameters G*, G′, and G″ also demonstrated considerable differences in both overall strength and rheological behavior between different batches of the same product and different product types. The large range in consistency and changes in the overall structure of the starch-based products over a range of physiological shear rates show that patients could be receiving fluids with very different characteristics from that advised. This could have detrimental effects on their ability to swallow.

Stubs versus swabs? A comparison of gunshot residue collection techniques

The collection efficiency of two widely used gunshot residue (GSR) collection techniques—carbon-coated adhesive stubs and alcohol swabs—has been compared by counting the number of characteristic GSR particles collected from the firing hand of a shooter after firing one round. Samples were analyzed with both scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-rays by an experienced GSR analyst, and the number of particles on each sample containing Pb, Ba, and Sb counted. The adhesive stubs showed a greater collection efficiency as all 24 samples gave positive results for GSR particles whereas the swabs gave only positive results for half of the 24 samples. Results showed a statistically significant collection efficiency for the stub collection method and likely reasons for this are considered.

Comment on: Fruit and seed biomineralization and its effect on preservation by E. Messager et al.; in: Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences (2010) 2:25–34. DOI 10.1007/s12520-010-0024-1

This article provides a brief critique of a recent article on biomineralisation and preservation. It gives a summary of the difference between biomineralisation and mineral replacement, and addresses problems with the interpretation of FT-IR data. The lack of contextual information for the samples studied is another problem which is highlighted.