Brief and precarious lives: Infant mortality in contrasting sites from medieval and post-medieval England (AD 850-1859)

This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles. At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).

"De rappels en prédictions, savoir convaincre et savoir agir : le rôle ambigu de Merlin, de la naissance d'Arthur à son accès au trône de Bretagne (dans le Merlin en prose et la Suite Vulgate)"

Bénéficiant de la connaissance du passé, du présent et du futur, Merlin ne se contente pas de rappeler, observer, ou prédire, mais il agit et influence le cours de l'histoire en favorisant la conception problématique d'Arthur. L'étude porte sur la nature et la portée de son investissement dans une trame narrative où il n'a de cesse d'argumenter, de convaincre, et de se justifier.

Friendly amendment: a commentary on Doyle and Ford's proposed re-definition of 'mental model'

Some amendments are proposed to a recent redefinition of the mental model concept in system dynamics. First, externalised, or articulated mental models should not be called cognitive maps; this term has a well established, alternative meaning. Second, there can be mental models of entities not yet existing beyond an individual's mind; the modelling of planned or desired systems is possible and recommended. Third, saying that mental models maintain social systems connects with some exciting research opportunities for system dynamics; however, it is probably an accidental distraction from the intended meaning of the redefinition. These minor criticisms apart, the new definition of mental model of a dynamic system is welcomed as a useful contribution to both research and practice.

Entre histoire et fiction: la représentation du règne d'Arthur dans le manuscrit enluminé du Brut en prose, Londres, Lambeth Palace 6 (c. 1480)

The manuscript London, Lambeth Palace 6, contains the Middle English prose Brut, a text which benefited from a great popularity throughout the fifteenth century. It was copied by an English scribe and richly illuminated by the Master of Edward IV and his assistants at Bruges around 1480. This article studies the representation and integration of the reign of Arthur in the historical framework of the Brut or Chronicles of England, including its fictional aspects: Arthur emerges as a historical character but also as a chivalric and mythical figure. The analysis covers the miniatures ranging from the plot leading to the conception of Arthur to the end of his reign (fols. 36-66). The textual and iconographic choices of the prose Bruts are highlighted by comparisons with Geoffrey of Monmouth’s Historia Regum Britanniae, Wace’s Brut, and later prose rewritings in the Lancelot-Grail romance cycle, especially Merlin and its Vulgate Sequel. They show the continuous interest raised by Arthur in the aristocratic and royal circles of late fifteenth century England and the relationship be¬tween continental and insular historiographical, literary and artistic traditions.

Arthur et ses barons rebelles: la fin remaniée et abrégée de la Suite Vulgate dans le manuscrit du cycle du Graal, Paris, BNF fr. 344

The ms. Paris, BnF, fr. 344 was produced in Lorraine at the end of the thirteenth century and contains the whole Lancelot-Grail cycle. It presents an abridged version of the end of the Vulgate Sequel to Merlin. The rewriting of the end of the sequel glosses over the romantic episodes of the common version and focuses on the figure of Arthur, a legitimate sovereign and skilful war leader confronted by his barons’ dissidence. From the end of f° 182 to f° 184v°, BnF, fr. 344, narrates the departure of Kings Ban and Bohort for the Continent, the embassy of King Loth and his sons, and the fight against the Saxons of the Christian coalition gathered at Logres for the feast of the Holy Cross. This article shows the ideological implications of the abridgement and the illustration used at the end of the Vulgate Sequel in ms. fr. 344, as it exalts Arthur’s kingship and insists on the rallying, penance and submission of his rebelled vassals.