Using attribute importance rankings within discrete choice experiments: an application to valuing bread attributes

We present a new Bayesian econometric specification for a hypothetical Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) incorporating respondent ranking information about attribute importance. Our results indicate that a DCE debriefing question that asks respondents to rank the importance of attributes helps to explain the resulting choices. We also examine how mode of survey delivery (online and mail) impacts model performance, finding that results are not substantively a§ected by the mode of survey delivery. We conclude that the ranking data is a complementary source of information about respondent utility functions within hypothetical DCEs

Information customization and food choice

In this paper we employ a hypothetical discrete choice experiment (DCE) to examine how much consumers are willing to pay to use technology to customize their food shopping. We conjecture that customized information provision can aid in the composition of a healthier shop. Our results reveal that consumers are prepared to pay relatively more for individual specic information as opposed to generic nutritional information that is typically provided on food labels. In arriving at these results we have examined various model specications including those that make use of ex-post de-brieng questions on attribute nonattendance and attribute ranking information and those that consider the time taken to complete the survey. Our main results are robust to the various model specications we examine

A comparison of two methods for developing the linearization of a shallow-water model

We develop the linearization of a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian model of the one-dimensional shallow-water equations using two different methods. The usual tangent linear model, formed by linearizing the discrete nonlinear model, is compared with a model formed by first linearizing the continuous nonlinear equations and then discretizing. Both models are shown to perform equally well for finite perturbations. However, the asymptotic behaviour of the two models differs as the perturbation size is reduced. This leads to difficulties in showing that the models are correctly coded using the standard tests. To overcome this difficulty we propose a new method for testing linear models, which we demonstrate both theoretically and numerically. © Crown copyright, 2003. Royal Meteorological Society

How big is your neighbourhood? Spatial implications of market participation among Filipino smallholders

We present a procedure for estimating two quantities defining the spatial externality in discrete-choice commonly referred to as 'the neighbourhood effect'. One quantity, the propensity for neighbours to make the same decision, reflects traditional preoccupations; the other quantity, the magnitude of the neighbourhood itself, is novel. Because both quantities have fundamental bearing on the magnitude of the spatial externality, it is desirable to have a robust algorithm for their estimation. Using recent advances in Bayesian estimation and model comparison, we devise such an algorithm and illustrate its application to a sample of northern-Filipino smallholders. We determine that a significant, positive, neighbourhood effect exists; that, among the 12 geographical units comprising the sample, the neighbourhood spans a three-unit radius; and that policy prescriptions are significantly altered when calculations account for the spatial externality.

Policy options promoting market participation among smallholder livestock producers: a case study from the Phillipines

We investigate the factors precipitating market entry where smallholders make decisions about participation (a discrete choice about whether to sell quantities of products) and supply (a continuous-valued choice about how much quantity to sell) in a cross-section of smallholders in Northern Luzon, Philippines, in a model that combines basic probit and Tobit ideas, is implemented using Bayesian methods, and generates precise estimates of the inputs required in order to effect entry among the non-participants. We estimate the total amounts of (cattle, buffalo, pig and chicken) livestock input required to effect entry and compare and contrast the alternative input requirements. To the extent that our smallholder sample may be representative of a wide and broader set of circumstances, our findings shed light on offsetting impacts of conflicting factors that complicate the roles for policy in the context of expanding the density of participation.

Discrete time representation of continuous time ARMA processes

This paper derives exact discrete time representations for data generated by a continuous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) system with mixed stock and flow data. The representations for systems comprised entirely of stocks or of flows are also given. In each case the discrete time representations are shown to be of ARMA form, the orders depending on those of the continuous time system. Three examples and applications are also provided, two of which concern the stationary ARMA(2, 1) model with stock variables (with applications to sunspot data and a short-term interest rate) and one concerning the nonstationary ARMA(2, 1) model with a flow variable (with an application to U.S. nondurable consumers’ expenditure). In all three examples the presence of an MA(1) component in the continuous time system has a dramatic impact on eradicating unaccounted-for serial correlation that is present in the discrete time version of the ARMA(2, 0) specification, even though the form of the discrete time model is ARMA(2, 1) for both models.

GM food purchase intentions: linking the theory of planned behaviour with consumer trust and stated choice

After the “European” experience of BSE and further food safety crises consumer trust is playing an increasingly important role in political and marketing decision making. This also relates to the area of consumer acceptance of GM food. This paper integrates consumer trust with the theory of planned behavior and a stated choice model to gain a more complete picture of consumer decision making. Preliminary results indicate that when GM products offer practical benefits to consumers acceptance may increase considerably. Furthermore, both trust and perceived benefits contribute significantly to explaining the level of acceptance.

Joint use of attribute importance rankings and non-attendance data in choice experiments

The joint and alternative uses of attribute non-attendance and importance ranking data within discrete choice experiments are investigated using data from Lebanon examining consumers’ preferences for safety certification in food. We find that both types of information; attribute non-attendance and importance rankings, improve estimates of respondent utility. We introduce a method of integrating both types of information simultaneously and find that this outperforms models where either importance ranking or non-attendance data are used alone. As in previous studies, stated non-attendance of attributes was not found to be consistent with respondents having zero marginal utility for those attributes

On a stochastic Trotter formula with application to spontaneous localization models

We consider the relation between so called continuous localization models—i.e. non-linear stochastic Schrödinger evolutions—and the discrete GRW-model of wave function collapse. The former can be understood as scaling limit of the GRW process. The proof relies on a stochastic Trotter formula, which is of interest in its own right. Our Trotter formula also allows to complement results on existence theory of stochastic Schrödinger evolutions by Holevo and Mora/Rebolledo.

Effect of shear rupture on aggregate scale formation in sea ice

A discrete element model is used to study shear rupture of sea ice under convergent wind stresses. The model includes compressive, tensile, and shear rupture of viscous elastic joints connecting floes that move under the action of the wind stresses. The adopted shear rupture is governed by Coulomb’s criterion. The ice pack is a 400 km long square domain consisting of 4 km size floes. In the standard case with tensile strength 10 times smaller than the compressive strength, under uniaxial compression the failure regime is mainly shear rupture with the most probable scenario corresponding to that with the minimum failure work. The orientation of cracks delineating formed aggregates is bimodal with the peaks around the angles given by the wing crack theory determining diamond-shaped blocks. The ice block (floe aggregate) size decreases as the wind stress gradient increases since the elastic strain energy grows faster leading to a higher speed of crack propagation. As the tensile strength grows, shear rupture becomes harder to attain and compressive failure becomes equally important leading to elongation of blocks perpendicular to the compression direction and the blocks grow larger. In the standard case, as the wind stress confinement ratio increases the failure mode changes at a confinement ratio within 0.2–0.4, which corresponds to the analytical critical confinement ratio of 0.32. Below this value, the cracks are bimodal delineating diamond shape aggregates, while above this value failure becomes isotropic and is determined by small-scale stress anomalies due to irregularities in floe shape.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints

Contract cheating & the market in essays

We conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by University students. We investigate student demand for essays, using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential Holt-Laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences. Students stated willingness to participate in the essay market, and their valuation of purchased essays, vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment. Risk preferring students, those working in a non-native language, and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more. Purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase.

Stated willingness-to-pay for organic fruit and pesticide ban: an evaluation using both web-based and face-to-face interviewing

Income growth in highly industrialised countries has resulted in consumer choice of foodstuffs no longer being primarily influenced by basic factors such as price and organoleptic features. From this perspective, the present study sets out to evaluate how and to what extent consumer choice is influenced by the possible negative effects on health and environment caused by the consumption of fruit containing deposits of pesticides and chemical products. The study describes the results of a survey which explores and estimates consumer willingness to pay in two forms: a yearly contribution for the abolition of the use of pesticides on fruit, and a premium price for organically grown apples guaranteed by a certified label. The same questionnaire was administered to two samples. The first was a conventional face-to-face survey of customers of large retail outlets located around Bologna (Italy); the second was an Internet sample. The discrete choice data were analysed by means of probit and tobit models to estimate the utility consumers attribute to organically grown fruit and to a pesticide ban. The research also addresses questions of validity and representativeness as a fundamental problem in web-based surveys.

From a discrete to a continuum model of cell dynamics in one dimension

Multiscale modeling is emerging as one of the key challenges in mathematical biology. However, the recent rapid increase in the number of modeling methodologies being used to describe cell populations has raised a number of interesting questions. For example, at the cellular scale, how can the appropriate discrete cell-level model be identified in a given context? Additionally, how can the many phenomenological assumptions used in the derivation of models at the continuum scale be related to individual cell behavior? In order to begin to address such questions, we consider a discrete one-dimensional cell-based model in which cells are assumed to interact via linear springs. From the discrete equations of motion, the continuous Rouse [P. E. Rouse, J. Chem. Phys. 21, 1272 (1953)] model is obtained. This formalism readily allows the definition of a cell number density for which a nonlinear "fast" diffusion equation is derived. Excellent agreement is demonstrated between the continuum and discrete models. Subsequently, via the incorporation of cell division, we demonstrate that the derived nonlinear diffusion model is robust to the inclusion of more realistic biological detail. In the limit of stiff springs, where cells can be considered to be incompressible, we show that cell velocity can be directly related to cell production. This assumption is frequently made in the literature but our derivation places limits on its validity. Finally, the model is compared with a model of a similar form recently derived for a different discrete cell-based model and it is shown how the different diffusion coefficients can be understood in terms of the underlying assumptions about cell behavior in the respective discrete models.