Multiple-project discount rates for cost-benefit analysis in construction projects: A formal risk model for microgeneration renewable energy technologies

The traditional economic approach for appraising the costs and benefits of construction project Net Present Values involves the calculation of net returns for each investment option under different discount rates. An alternative approach consists of multiple-project discount rates based on risk modelling. The example of a portfolio of microgeneration renewable energy technology (MRET) is presented to demonstrate that risks and future available budget for re-investment can be taken into account when setting discount rates for construction project specifications in presence of uncertainty. A formal demonstration is carried out through a reversed intertemporal approach of applied general equilibrium. It is demonstrated that risk and the estimated available budget for future re-investment can be included in the simultaneous assessment of the costs and benefits of multiple projects.

An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

EOQ, JIT and fixed costs in the Ready-mixed concrete industry

The successful implementation of just-in-time (JIT) purchasing policy in many industries has prompted many companies that still use the economic order quantity (EOQ) purchasing policy to ponder if they should switch to the JIT purchasing policy. Despite existing studies that directly compare the costs between the EOQ and JIT purchasing systems, this decision is, however, still difficult to be made, especially when price discount has to be considered. JIT purchasing may not always be successful even though plants that adopted JIT operations have experienced or can take advantage of physical space reduction. Hence, the objective of this study is to expand on a classical EOQ with a price discount model to derive the EOQ–JIT cost indifference point. The objective was tested and achieved through a survey and case study conducted in the ready-mixed concrete industry in Singapore.

Intensive case management for severe psychotic illness: is there a general benefit for patients with complex needs? A secondary analysis of the UK700 trial data

The UK700 trial failed to demonstrate an overall benefit of intensive case management (ICM) in patients with severe psychotic illness. This does not discount a benefit for particular subgroups, and evidence of a benefit of ICM for patients of borderline intelligence has been presented. The aim of this study is to investigate whether this effect is part of a general benefit for patients with severe psychosis complicated by additional needs. In the UK700 trial patients with severe psychosis were randomly allocated to ICM or standard case management. For each patient group with complex needs the effect of ICM is compared with that in the rest of the study cohort. Outcome measures are days spent in psychiatric hospital and the admission and discharge rates. ICM may be of benefit to patients with severe psychosis complicated by borderline intelligence or depression, but may cause patients using illicit drugs to spend more time in hospital. There was no convincing evidence of an effect of ICM in a further seven patient groups. ICM is not of general benefit to patients with severe psychosis complicated by additional needs. The benefit of ICM for patients with borderline intelligence is an isolated effect which should be interpreted cautiously until further data are available.

Magnetic discontinuities in the near-earth solar wind: evidence of in-transit turbulence or remnants of coronal structure?

Fluctuations in the solar wind plasma and magnetic field are well described by the sum of two power law distributions. It has been postulated that these distributions are the result of two independent processes: turbulence, which contributes mainly to the smaller fluctuations, and crossing the boundaries of flux tubes of coronal origin, which dominates the larger variations. In this study we explore the correspondence between changes in the magnetic field with changes in other solar wind properties. Changes in density and temperature may result from either turbulence or coronal structures, whereas changes in composition, such as the alpha-to-proton ratio are unlikely to arise from in-transit effects. Observations spanning the entire ACE dataset are compared with a null hypothesis of no correlation between magnetic field discontinuities and changes in other solar wind parameters. Evidence for coronal structuring is weaker than for in-transit turbulence, with only ∼ 25% of large magnetic field discontinuities associated with a significant change in the alpha-to-proton ratio, compared to ∼ 40% for significant density and temperature changes. However, note that a lack of detectable alpha-to-proton signature is not sufficient to discount a structure as having a solar origin.

Pil and Galia Kollectiv: solo exhibition at Te Tuhi Art Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.

The exhibition presents the full Future Trilogy which was completed in 2009. The trilogy is based on the opening of a new IKEA store in Edmonton, London in November 2005. IKEA celebrated with a twenty-four hour launch accompanied by significant price reductions on leather sofas. But when six thousand people arrived to compete for the discount a riot ensued which injured sixteen shoppers and required the store to be closed after just thirty minutes. The Future Trilogy takes this event as the starting point to speculate on a future where the popular fascination with modern designer furniture has morphed into state religions underpinned by the ideals of the early twentieth century avant-garde. The exhibition also presents their 2010 work Co-Operative Explanatory Capabilities in Organizational Design and Personnel Management which narrates a fictional story of a company that adopts highly experimental approaches to achieving worker productivity. The project investigates the place of creativity in efficiency management and the operation of bureaucratic systems in a post-industrial work environment. The Kollectiv's pseudo documentary creates a careful blend of fact and fiction through the combination of a distinctive BBC narrator's voice with imagery sourced from an online photographic archive for an early computing company. The story becomes increasingly provocative as more and more of the bizarre antics of the company employees are revealed, leading to the members of the company eventually forming a religious cult.

Explaining deviations from NAV in UK property companies: rationality and sentimentality

One of the most vexing issues for analysts and managers of property companies across Europe has been the existence and persistence of deviations of Net Asset Values of property companies from their market capitalisation. The issue has clear links to similar discounts and premiums in closed-end funds. The closed end fund puzzle is regarded as an important unsolved problem in financial economics undermining theories of market efficiency and the Law of One Price. Consequently, it has generated a huge body of research. Although it can be tempting to focus on the particular inefficiencies of real estate markets in attempting to explain deviations from NAV, the closed end fund discount puzzle indicates that divergences between underlying asset values and market capitalisation are not a ‘pure’ real estate phenomenon. When examining potential explanations, two recurring factors stand out in the closed end fund literature as often undermining the economic rationale for a discount – the existence of premiums and cross-sectional and periodic fluctuations in the level of discount/premium. These need to be borne in mind when considering potential explanations for real estate markets. There are two approaches to investigating the discount to net asset value in closed-end funds: the ‘rational’ approach and the ‘noise trader’ or ‘sentiment’ approach. The ‘rational’ approach hypothesizes the discount to net asset value as being the result of company specific factors relating to such factors as management quality, tax liability and the type of stocks held by the fund. Despite the intuitive appeal of the ‘rational’ approach to closed-end fund discounts the studies have not successfully explained the variance in closed-end fund discounts or why the discount to net asset value in closed-end funds varies so much over time. The variation over time in the average sector discount is not only a feature of closed-end funds but also property companies. This paper analyses changes in the deviations from NAV for UK property companies between 2000 and 2003. The paper present a new way to study the phenomenon ‘cleaning’ the gearing effect by introducing a new way of calculating the discount itself. We call it “ungeared discount”. It is calculated by assuming that a firm issues new equity to repurchase outstanding debt without any variation on asset side. In this way discount does not depend on an accounting effect and the analysis should better explain the effect of other independent variables.

Data uncertainty in real estate forecasting

The rapid expansion of the TMT sector in the late 1990s and more recent growing regulatory and corporate focus on business continuity and security have raised the profile of data centres. Data centres offer a unique blend of occupational, physical and technological characteristics compared to conventional real estate assets. Limited trading and heterogeneity of data centres also causes higher levels of appraisal uncertainty. In practice, the application of conventional discounted cash flow approaches requires information about a wide range of inputs that is difficult to derive from limited market signals or estimate analytically. This paper outlines an approach that uses pricing signals from similar traded cash flows is proposed. Based upon ‘the law of one price’, the method draws upon the premise that two identical future cash flows must have the same value now. Given the difficulties of estimating exit values, an alternative is that the expected cash flows of data centre are analysed over the life cycle of the building, with corporate bond yields used to provide a proxy for the appropriate discount rates for lease income. Since liabilities are quite diverse, a number of proxies are suggested as discount and capitalisation rates including indexed-linked, fixed interest and zero-coupon bonds. Although there are rarely assets that have identical cash flows and some approximation is necessary, the level of appraiser subjectivity is dramatically reduced.

The appraisal of data centres: deconstructing the cash flow

This paper analyses the appraisal of a specialized form of real estate - data centres - that has a unique blend of locational, physical and technological characteristics that differentiate it from conventional real estate assets. Market immaturity, limited trading and a lack of pricing signals enhance levels of appraisal uncertainty and disagreement relative to conventional real estate assets. Given the problems of applying standard discounted cash flow, an approach to appraisal is proposed that uses pricing signals from traded cash flows that are similar to the cash flows generated from data centres. Based upon ‘the law of one price’, it is assumed that two assets that are expected to generate identical cash flows in the future must have the same value now. It is suggested that the expected cash flow of assets should be analysed over the life cycle of the building. Corporate bond yields are used to provide a proxy for the appropriate discount rates for lease income. Since liabilities are quite diverse, a number of proxies are suggested as discount and capitalisation rates including indexed-linked, fixed interest and zero-coupon bonds.

The use of public participation and economic appraisal for public involvement in large-scale hydropower projects: Case study of the Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project

Gaining public acceptance is one of the main issues with large-scale low-carbon projects such as hydropower development. It has been recommended by the World Commission on Dams that to gain public acceptance, publicinvolvement is necessary in the decision-making process (WCD, 2000). As financially-significant actors in the planning and implementation of large-scale hydropowerprojects in developing country contexts, the paper examines the ways in which publicinvolvement may be influenced by international financial institutions. Using the casestudy of the NamTheun2HydropowerProject in Laos, the paper analyses how publicinvolvement facilitated by the Asian Development Bank had a bearing on procedural and distributional justice. The paper analyses the extent of publicparticipation and the assessment of full social and environmental costs of the project in the Cost-Benefit Analysis conducted during the projectappraisal stage. It is argued that while efforts were made to involve the public, there were several factors that influenced procedural and distributional justice: the late contribution of the Asian Development Bank in the projectappraisal stage; and the issue of non-market values and discount rate to calculate the full social and environmental costs.

The impact of price promotions on producer strategies in markets with large product heterogeneity

Although current research indicates that increasing the number of options has negative effects on the cognitive ability of consumers, little understanding has been given to the consequences on producers and their strategic behavior. This article tests whether a large portfolio of products is beneficial to producers by observing UK consumer response to price promotions. The article shows that discounts induce mainly segment switching (74% of the total impact), with a limited effect on stockpiling (26%) and no impact on purchase incidence. Consequently, consumers prefer to “follow the discount” rather than purchase multiple units of the same wine. This result seems to explain the current structure of the market, and suggests that discounts may conflict with segment loyalty, a situation that disfavors producers, particularly in very populated segments. Results also casts doubts on the economic sustainability of competition based on an intense product differentiation in the wine sector.

A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

The correlation of ULF waves and auroral intensity before, during and after substorm expansion phase onset

We present case studies of the evolution of magnetic wave amplitudes and auroral intensity through the late growth phase and the expansion phase of the substorm cycle. We present strong evidence that substorm-related auroral enhancements are clearly and demonstrably linked to ULF wave amplitudes observed at the same location. In most cases, we find that the highest correlations are observed when the magnetometer time series is advanced in time, indicating that the ULF wave amplitudes start to grow before measured auroral intensities, though interestingly this is not always the case. Further we discuss the four possible reasons that may be able to explain both the timing and the high correlations between these two phenomena, including: a simple coincidence, an artifact of instrumental effects, the response of the ionosphere to magnetic waves and auroral particle precipitation, and finally that ULF waves and auroral particle precipitation are physically linked. We discount coincidence and instrumental effects since in the studies presented here they are unlikely or in general will contribute negligible effects, and we find that the ionospheric response to waves and precipitation can explain some, but not all of the results contained within this paper. Specifically, ionospheric response to substorm waves and auroral precipitation cannot explain that the result that previous studies have shown, that onset of ULF wave activity and the onset of auroral particle precipitation occur at the same time and in the same location. This leaves the possibility that ULF waves and auroral particles are physically linked.