Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability.

Advancements in the estimation of ice particle fall speeds using laboratory and field measurements

Accurate estimates for the fall speed of natural hydrometeors are vital if their evolution in clouds is to be understood quantitatively. In this study, laboratory measurements of the terminal velocity vt for a variety of ice particle models settling in viscous fluids, along with wind-tunnel and field measurements of ice particles settling in air, have been analyzed and compared to common methods of computing vt from the literature. It is observed that while these methods work well for a number of particle types, they fail for particles with open geometries, specifically those particles for which the area ratio Ar is small (Ar is defined as the area of the particle projected normal to the flow divided by the area of a circumscribing disc). In particular, the fall speeds of stellar and dendritic crystals, needles, open bullet rosettes, and low-density aggregates are all overestimated. These particle types are important in many cloud types: aggregates in particular often dominate snow precipitation at the ground and vertically pointing Doppler radar measurements. Based on the laboratory data, a simple modification to previous computational methods is proposed, based on the area ratio. This new method collapses the available drag data onto an approximately universal curve, and the resulting errors in the computed fall speeds relative to the tank data are less than 25% in all cases. Comparison with the (much more scattered) measurements of ice particles falling in air show strong support for this new method, with the area ratio bias apparently eliminated.

Inter-laboratory variation of in vitro cumulative gas production profiles of feeds using manual and automated methods

A study was conducted to estimate variation among laboratories and between manual and automated techniques of measuring pressure on the resulting gas production profiles (GPP). Eight feeds (molassed sugarbeet feed, grass silage, maize silage, soyabean hulls, maize gluten feed, whole crop wheat silage, wheat, glucose) were milled to pass a I mm screen and sent to three laboratories (ADAS Nutritional Sciences Research Unit, UK; Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research (IGER), UK; Wageningen University, The Netherlands). Each laboratory measured GPP over 144 h using standardised procedures with manual pressure transducers (MPT) and automated pressure systems (APS). The APS at ADAS used a pressure transducer and bottles in a shaking water bath, while the APS at Wageningen and IGER used a pressure sensor and bottles held in a stationary rack. Apparent dry matter degradability (ADDM) was estimated at the end of the incubation. GPP were fitted to a modified Michaelis-Menten model assuming a single phase of gas production, and GPP were described in terms of the asymptotic volume of gas produced (A), the time to half A (B), the time of maximum gas production rate (t(RM) (gas)) and maximum gas production rate (R-M (gas)). There were effects (P<0.001) of substrate on all parameters. However, MPT produced more (P<0.001) gas, but with longer (P<0.001) B and t(RM gas) (P<0.05) and lower (P<0.001) R-M gas compared to APS. There was no difference between apparatus in ADDM estimates. Interactions occurred between substrate and apparatus, substrate and laboratory, and laboratory and apparatus. However, when mean values for MPT were regressed from the individual laboratories, relationships were good (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.827 or higher). Good relationships were also observed with APS, although they were weaker than for MPT (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.723 or higher). The relationships between mean MPT and mean APS data were also good (i.e., adjusted R 2 = 0. 844 or higher). Data suggest that, although laboratory and method of measuring pressure are sources of variation in GPP estimation, it should be possible using appropriate mathematical models to standardise data among laboratories so that data from one laboratory could be extrapolated to others. This would allow development of a database of GPP data from many diverse feeds. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Individual Differences in Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activity are Associated with Evaluation Speed and Psychological Well-being

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined whether individual differences in amygdala activation in response to negative relative to neutral information are related to differences in the speed with which such information is evaluated, the extent to which such differences are associated with medial prefrontal cortex function, and their relationship with measures of trait anxiety and psychological well-being (PWB). Results indicated that faster judgments of negative relative to neutral information were associated with increased left and right amygdala activation. In the prefrontal cortex, faster judgment time was associated with relative decreased activation in a cluster in the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, BA 24). Furthermore, people who were slower to evaluate negative versus neutral information reported higher PWB. Importantly, higher PWB was strongly associated with increased activation in the ventral ACC for negative relative to neutral information. Individual differences in trait anxiety did not predict variation in judgment time or in amygdala or ventral ACC activity. These findings suggest that people high in PWB effectively recruit the ventral ACC when confronted with potentially aversive stimuli, manifest reduced activity in subcortical regions such as the amygdala, and appraise such information as less salient as reflected in slower evaluative speed.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Evaluating explanations about drug prescriptions: effects of varying the nature of information about side effects and its relative position in explanations

This study evaluates computer-generated written explanations about drug prescriptions that are based on an analysis of both patient and doctor informational needs. Three experiments examine the effects of varying the type of information given about the possible side effects of the medication, and the order of information within the explanation. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of these two factors on people's ratings of how good they consider the explanations to be and of their perceived likelihood of taking the medication, as well as on their memory for the information in the explanation. Experiment 2 further examined the effects of varying information about side effects by separating out the contribution of number and severity of side effects. It was found that participants in this study did not “like” explanations that described severe side effects, and also judged that they would be less likely to take the medication if given such explanations. Experiment 3 therefore investigated whether information about severe side effects could be presented in such a way as to increase judgements of how good explanations are thought to be, as well as the perceived likelihood of adherence. The results showed some benefits of providing additional explanatory information.

Tropospheric ozone and winter wheat production in England and Wales: A note

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant thought to reduce crop yields across Europe. Much experimental scientific work has been completed or is currently underway to quantify yield effects at ambient ozone levels. In this research, we seek to directly evaluate whether such effects are observed at the farm level. This is done by intersecting a farm level panel dataset for winter wheat farms in England & Wales with information on ambient ozone, and estimating a production function with ozone as a fixed input. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) techniques and nested exogeneity tests are employed in the estimation. The results confirm a small, but nevertheless statistically significant negative effect of ambient ozone levels on wheat yields.

Effect of sulphation on the oestrogen agonist activity of the phytoestrogens genistein and daidzein in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells

The phytoestrogens genistein, daidzein and the daidzein metabolite equol have been shown previously to possess oestrogen agonist activity. However, following consumption of soya diets, they are found in the body not only as aglycones but also as metabolites conjugated at their 4'- and 7-hydroxyl groups with sulphate. This paper describes the effects of monosulphation on the oestrogen agonist properties of these three phytoestrogens in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in terms of their relative ability to compete with [H-3]oestradiol for binding to oestrogen receptor (ER), to induce a stably transfected oestrogen-responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) and to stimulate cell growth. In no case did sulphation abolish activity. The 4'-sulphadon of genistein reduced oestrogen agonist activity to a small extent in whole-cell assays but increased the relative binding affinity to ER. The 7-sulphation of genistein, and also of equol, reduced oestrogen agonist activity substantially in all assays. By contrast, the position of monosulphation of daidzein acted in an opposing manner on oestrogen agonist activity. Sulphation at the 4'-position of daidzein resulted in a modest reduction in oestrogen agonist activity but sulphation of daidzein at the 7-position resulted in an increase in oestrogen agonist activity. Molecular modelling and docking studies suggested that the inverse effects of sulphation could be explained by the binding of daidzein into the ligand-binding domain of the ER in the opposite orientation compared with genistein and equol. This is the first report of sulphation enhancing activity of an isoflavone and inverse effects of sulphation between individual phytoestrogens.

Exudate flavones and flavanones in Origanum species and their interspecific variation

Surface flavonoids in nine species of Origanum, representing taxa from all three of the currently recognised subgeneric groups, were examined both by HPLC coupled to diode-array detection and APCI-MS. Many of the flavonoids present were characterised by O-substituent at C-6 (OH, OMe) and/or C-8 (OMe). In total, 25 flavones and flavanones are described in this study, of which 13 are new to the genus and 5,4'-dihydroxy-6,7,3'-trimethoxyflavanone is reported for the first time. Taxa in subgeneric Group A accumulated flavonoids with methoxyl groups at both C-6 and C-4'; however, taxa in subgeneric Group B did not accumulate 4'-methoxylated compounds, and taxa in Group C did not accumulate 6-methoxylated compounds. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro effects of synbiotic fermentation on the canine faecal microbiota.

Stirred, pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures were used to investigate the in vitro effects of galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) alone or combined with the probiotic Bifidobacterium bifidum 02 450B on the canine faecal microbiota of three different donors. GOS supported the growth of B. bifidum 02 450B throughout the fermentation. Quantitative analysis of bacterial populations by FISH revealed significant increases in Bifidobacterium spp. counts (Bif164) and a concomitant decrease in Clostridium histolyticum counts (Chis150) in the synbiotic-containing vessels compared with the controls and GOS vessels. Vessels containing probiotic alone displayed a transient increase in Bifidobacterium spp. and a transient decrease in Bacteroides spp. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis showed that GOS elicited similar alterations in the microbial profiles of the three in vitro runs. However, the synbiotic did not alter the microbial diversity of the three runs to the same extent as GOS alone. Nested PCR using universal primers, followed by bifidobacterial-specific primers illustrated low bifidobacterial diversity in dogs, which did not change drastically during the in vitro fermentation. This study illustrates that the canine faecal microbiota can be modulated in vitro by GOS supplementation and that GOS can sustain the growth of B. bifidum 02 450B in a synbiotic combination.

Polymorphisms in dopamine system genes are associated with individual differences in attention in infancy

Knowledge about the functional status of the frontal cortex in infancy is limited. This study investigated the effects of polymorphisms in four dopamine system genes on performance in a task developed to assess such functioning, the Freeze-Frame task, at 9 months of age. Polymorphisms in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) and the dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4) genes are likely to impact directly on the functioning of the frontal cortex, whereas polymorphisms in the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) and dopamine transporter (DAT1) genes might influence frontal cortex functioning indirectly via strong frontostriatal connections. A significant effect of the COMT valine158methionine (Val158Met) polymorphism was found. Infants with the Met/Met genotype were significantly less distractible than infants with the Val/Val genotype in Freeze-Frame trials presenting an engaging central stimulus. In addition, there was an interaction with the DAT1 3′ variable number of tandem repeats polymorphism; the COMT effect was present only in infants who did not have two copies of the DAT1 10-repeat allele. These findings indicate that dopaminergic polymorphisms affect selective aspects of attention as early as infancy and further validate the Freeze-Frame task as a frontal cortex task.

'Your secret language': classics in the British colonies of West Africa

What were the cultural politics of classics in British colonies? Did classical education operate as a sign of oppression, or as a tool for forging an anti-colonial politics? Why did Europeans bring the classics to West Africa, and how did they manage the developing dynamic when West Africans laid independent claim to the classical heritage? This ground-breaking study examines the ways in which European colonisers and West African nationalists clashed, or collaborated, over the uses of Latin, Greek and the classics.

The island and the world: kinship, friendship and living together in selected writings of Sam Selvon

This article argues that the ethical force of Trinidadian Sam Selvon’s creative writings comes from the particular configuration of living together that he is interested in, both in his Trinidadian novels and his London ones. It reads examples of this living together alongside and in difference that emerges through his focus on the relations between neighbours, friends and lovers, rather than the kinship relations of family. It argues that his works thereby map horizontal zones of attachment and possible solidarities across groupings that reconfigure vertically inscribed genealogical paradigms of belonging to place and each other based on models of historical continuity and inheritance.

Role of intimin-Tir interactions and the Tir-cytoskeleton coupling protein in the colonization of calves and lambs by Escherichia coli O157:H7

Intimin facilitates intestinal colonization by enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7; however, the importance of intimin binding to its translocated receptor (Tir) as opposed to cellular coreceptors is unknown. The intimin-Tir interaction is needed for optimal actin assembly under adherent bacteria in vitro, a process which requires the Tir-cytoskeleton coupling protein (TccP/EspF(U)) in E. coli O157:H7. Here we report that E. coli O157:H7 tir mutants are at least as attenuated as isogenic eae mutants in calves and lambs, implying that the role of intimin in the colonization of reservoir hosts can be explained largely by its binding to Tir. Mutation of tccP uncoupled actin assembly from the intimin-Tir-mediated adherence of E. coli O157:H7 in vitro but did not impair intestinal colonization in calves and lambs, implying that pedestal formation may not be necessary for persistence. However, an E. coli O157:H7 tccP mutant induced typical attaching and effacing lesions in a bovine ligated ileal loop model of infection, suggesting that TccP-independent mechanisms of actin assembly may operate in vivo.

Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Investigation of the effects of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB) on land prices are restricted by a lack of good land market data. However, undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a data set that enables exploration of the impact of its UGB. Estimation can take account of endogeneity issues, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. OLS and instrumental variable estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003 but did not rise much outside of it.