Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Estimating numbers of infectious units from serial dilution assays

The paper concerns the design and analysis of serial dilution assays to estimate the infectivity of a sample of tissue when it is assumed that the sample contains a finite number of indivisible infectious units such that a subsample will be infectious if it contains one or more of these units. The aim of the study is to estimate the number of infectious units in the original sample. The standard approach to the analysis of data from such a study is based on the assumption of independence of aliquots both at the same dilution level and at different dilution levels, so that the numbers of infectious units in the aliquots follow independent Poisson distributions. An alternative approach is based on calculation of the expected value of the total number of samples tested that are not infectious. We derive the likelihood for the data on the basis of the discrete number of infectious units, enabling calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate and likelihood-based confidence intervals. We use the exact probabilities that are obtained to compare the maximum likelihood estimate with those given by the other methods in terms of bias and standard error and to compare the coverage of the confidence intervals. We show that the methods have very similar properties and conclude that for practical use the method that is based on the Poisson assumption is to be recommended, since it can be implemented by using standard statistical software. Finally we consider the design of serial dilution assays, concluding that it is important that neither the dilution factor nor the number of samples that remain untested should be too large.

Noncompetitive plasma biokinetics of deuterium-labeled natural and synthetic alpha-tocopherol in healthy men with an apoE4 genotype

Previous studies comparing the biokinetics of deuterated natural (RRR) and synthetic (all-rac) α-tocopherol (vitamin E) used a simultaneous ingestion or competitive uptake approach and reported relative bioavailability ratios close to 2:1, higher than the accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1. The aim of the current study was to compare the biokinetics of deuterated natural and synthetic vitamin E using a noncompetitive uptake model both before and after vitamin E supplementation in a distinct population. Healthy men (n = 10) carrying the apolipoprotein (apo)E4 genotype completed a randomized crossover study, comprised of two 4-wk treatments with 400 mg/d (RRR-α-tocopheryl and all-rac-α-tocopheryl acetate) with a 12-wk washout period between treatments. Before and after each treatment period, the subjects consumed a capsule containing 150 mg deuterated α-tocopheryl acetate in either the PRR or all-rac form depending on their treatment regimen. Blood was obtained up to 48 h after ingestion, and tocopherols analyzed by LC/MS. After deuterated all-rac administration, plasma deuterated tocopherol maximum concentrations and area under the concentration vs. time curves (AUC) were lower than those following RRR administration. The RRR:all-rac ratios determined from the deuterated biokinetic profiles (maximum concentration; C-max) and AUCs were 1.35:1 &PLUSMN; 0.17 and 1.33:1 &PLUSMN; 0.18, respectively. The 4-wk supplementation with either PRR or all-rac significantly increased plasma a-tocopherol concentrations (P < 0.001), but decreased the plasma response to newly absorbed deuterated RRR or all-rac α-tocopherol. Using a noncompetitive uptake approach, the relative bioavailability of natural to synthetic vitamin E in apoE4 males was close to the currently accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1.

Development of a liquid chromatographic time-of-flight mass spectrometric method for the determination of unlabelled and deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in blood components

A method is described for the analysis of deuterated and undeuterated alpha-tocopherol in blood components using liquid chromatography coupled to an orthogonal acceleration time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer. Optimal ionisation conditions for undeuterated (d0) and tri- and hexadeuterated (d3 or d6) alpha-tocopherol standards were found with negative ion mode electrospray ionisation. Each species produced an isotopically resolved single ion of exact mass. Calibration curves of pure standards were linear in the range tested (0-1.5 muM, 0-15 pmol injected). For quantification of d0 and d6 in blood components following a standard solvent extraction, a stable-isotope-labelled internal standard (d3-alpha-tocopherol) was employed. To counter matrix ion suppression effects, standard response curves were generated following identical solvent extraction procedures to those of the samples. Within-day and between-day precision were determined for quantification of d0- and d6-labelled alpha-tocopherol in each blood component and both averaged 3-10%. Accuracy was assessed by comparison with a standard high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method, achieving good correlation (r(2) = 0.94), and by spiking with known concentrations of alpha-tocopherol (98% accuracy). Limits of detection and quantification were determined to be 5 and 50 fmol injected, respectively. The assay was used to measure the appearance and disappearance of deuterium-labelled alpha-tocopherol in human blood components following deuterium-labelled (d6) RRR-alpha-tocopheryl acetate ingestion. The new LC/TOFMS method was found to be sensitive, required small sample volumes, was reproducible and robust, and was capable of high throughput when large numbers of samples were generated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine uptake by the liver of lactating dairy cows

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine uptake by the liver of the lactating dairy cow was constructed and solved in the steady state. If assumptions are made, model solution permits calculation of the rate of phenylalanine uptake from portal vein and hepatic arterial blood supply, phenylalanine release into the hepatic vein, phenylalanine oxidation and synthesis, and degradation of hepatic constitutive and export proteins. The model requires the measurement of plasma fow rate through the liver in combination with phenylalanine concentrations and plateau isotopic enrichments in arterial, portal and hepatic plasma during a constant infusion of [1-13C]phenylalanine tracer. The model can be applied to other amino acids with similar metabolic fates and will provide a means for assessing the impact of hepatic metabolism on amino acid availability to peripheral tissues. This is of particular importance for the dairy cow when considering the requirements for milk protein synthesis and the negative environmental impact of excessive nitrogen excretion.

Dilution of the Antarctic ozone hole into southern midlatitudes, 1998-2000

The reduction in southern midlatitude ozone is quantified by evaluating the trajectories of ozone-depleted air masses, assuming that photochemical recovery of ozone in advected air parcels can be ignored. This procedure is carried out for the 3 months from 15 October to 15 January for each of the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Two distinct source regions, the vortex core and the vortex edge, are considered, and for each day, diabatic reverse domain filling calculations are performed for an ensemble of parcels between 30°S and 60°S and 400–700 K in altitude. In 1998, 1999, and 2000 the mean calculated ozone reduction is 16, 18, and 19 DU, respectively. Air parcels from the vortex edge region are significant contributors to the reduction, especially during spring. Results for four longitudinal and three latitudinal midlatitude subregions are also presented. A comparison with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements of total column ozone shows that without the dilution, ozone over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes would be 5–6% higher during spring and summer. This result is probably an overestimate due to the neglect of photochemical recovery.

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine and tyrosine uptake by the mammary gland of lactating dairy cows

An isotope dilution model for partitioning phenylalanine and tyrosine uptake by the mammary gland of the lactating dairy cow is constructed and solved in the steady state. The model contains four intracellular and four extracellular pools and conservation of mass principles are applied to generate the fundamental equations describing the behaviour of the system. The experimental measurements required for model solution are milk secretion and plasma flow rate across the gland in combination with phenylalanine and tyrosine concentrations and plateau isotopic enrichments in arterial and venous plasma and free and protein bound milk during a constant infusion of [1-(13)C]phenylalanine and [2,3,5,6-(2)H]tyrosine tracer. If assumptions are made, model solution enables determination of steady state flows for phenylalanine and tyrosine inflow to the gland, outflow from it and bypass, and flows representing the synthesis and degradation of constitutive protein and hydroxylation. The model is effective in providing information about the fates of phenylalanine and tyrosine in the mammary gland and could be used as part of a more complex system describing amino acid metabolism in the whole ruminant.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Stratosphere-troposphere transport in a numerical simulation of midlatitude convection

The transport of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere via convection is investigated numerically using the UK Met Office Unified Model. A convective system that formed on 27 June 2004 near southeast England, in the vicinity an upper level potential vorticity anomaly and a lowered tropopause, provides the basis for analysis. Transport is diagnosed using a stratospheric tracer that can either be passed through or withheld from the model’s convective parameterization scheme. Three simulations are performed at increasingly finer resolutions, with horizontal grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km. In the 12 and 4 km simulations, tracer is transported deeply into the troposphere by the parameterized convection. In the 1 km simulation, for which the convective parameterization is disengaged, deep transport is still accomplished but with a much smaller magnitude. However, the 1 km simulation resolves stirring along the tropopause that does not exist in the coarser simulations. In all three simulations, the concentration of the deeply transported tracer is small, three orders of magnitude less than that of the shallow transport near the tropopause, most likely because of the efficient dilution of parcels in the lower troposphere.

Wind-tunnel modelling of dispersion from a scalar area source in urban-like roughness

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T /U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness

Biological and chemical assessment of zinc ageing in field soils

As zinc (Zn) is both an essential trace element and potential toxicant, the effects of Zn fixation in soil are of practical significance. Soil samples from four field sites amended with ZnSO4 were used to investigate ageing of soluble Zn under field conditions over a 2-year period. Lability of Zn measured using 65Zn radioisotope dilution showed a significant decrease over time and hence evidence of Zn fixation in three of the four soils. However, 0.01 M CaCl2 extractions and toxicity measurements using a genetically modified lux-marked bacterial biosensor did not indicate a decrease in soluble/bioavailable Zn over time. This was attributed to the strong regulatory effect of abiotic properties such as pH on these latter measurements. These results also showed that Zn ageing occurred immediately after Zn spiking, emphasising the need to incubate freshly spiked soils before ecotoxicity assessments. Ageing effects were detected in Zn-amended field soils using 65Zn isotopic dilution as a measure of lability, but not with either CaCl2 extractions or a lux-marked bacterial biosensor.

Simulating metals and mine discharges in river basins using a new integrated catchment model for metals: pollution impacts and restoration strategies in the Aries-Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

The INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model has been developed to simulate the impact of mine discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the key kinetic chemical processes operating as well as the dilution, mixing and redistribution of pollutants in rivers downstream of mine discharges or acid rock drainage sites. The model is dynamic and simulates the day-to-day behaviour of hydrology and eight metals (cadmium, mercury, copper, zinc, lead, arsenic, manganese and chromium) as well as cyanide and ammonia. The model is semi-distributed and can simulate catchments, sub-catchment and in-stream river behaviour. The model has been applied to the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania, and used to assess the impacts of old mine adits on the local catchments as well as on the downstream Aries and Mures river system. The question of mine restoration is investigated and a set of clean-up scenarios investigated. It is shown that the planned restoration will generate a much improved water quality from the mine and also alleviate the metal pollution of the river system.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Mass and size distribution measurement of particulates from a gas turbine combustor using modern mobility analyzer and particle sizer

SMPS and DMS500 analysers were used to measure particulate size distributions in the exhaust of a fully annular aero gas turbine engine at two operating conditions to compare and analyse sources of discrepancy. A number of different dilution ratio values were utilised for the comparative analysis, and a Dekati hot diluter operating at a temperature of 623°K was also utilised to remove volatile PM prior to measurements being made. Additional work focused on observing the effect of varying the sample line temperatures to ascertain the impact. Explanations are offered for most of the trends observed, although a new, repeatable event identified in the range from 417°K to 423°K – where there was a three order of magnitude increase in the nucleation mode of the sample – requires further study.