Dealing with complexity: an overview of the neural network approach

The problem of complexity is particularly relevant to the field of control engineering, since many engineering problems are inherently complex. The inherent complexity is such that straightforward computational problem solutions often produce very poor results. Although parallel processing can alleviate the problem to some extent, it is artificial neural networks (in various forms) which have recently proved particularly effective, even in dealing with the causes of the problem itself. This paper presents an overview of the current neural network research being undertaken. Such research aims to solve the complex problems found in many areas of science and engineering today.

Animal disease and the limits of local knowledge: dealing with ticks and tick-borne diseases in South Africa

Some proponents of local knowledge, such as Sillitoe (2010), have expressed second thoughts about its capacity to effect development on the ‘revolutionary’ scale once predicted. Our argument in this article follows a similar route. Recent research into the management of livestock in South Africa makes clear that rural African livestock farmers experience uncertainty in relation to the control of stock diseases. State provision of veterinary services has been significantly reduced over the past decade. Both white and African livestock owners are to a greater extent left to their own devices. In some areas of animal disease management, African livestock owners have recourse to tried-and-tested local remedies, which are largely plant-based. But especially in the critical sphere of tick control, efficacious treatments are less evident, and livestock owners struggle to find adequate solutions to high tickloads. This is particularly important in South Africa in the early twenty-first century because land reform and the freedom to purchase land in the post-apartheid context affords African stockowners opportunities to expand livestock holdings. Our research suggests that the limits of local knowledge in dealing with ticks is one of the central problems faced by African livestock owners. We judge this not only in relation to efficacy but also the perceptions of livestock owners themselves. While confidence and practice varies, and there is increasing resort of chemical acaricides we were struck by the uncertainty of livestock owners over the best strategies.

Inverting the lives of 'others': retelling the Nazi past in 'Ehe im Schatten' and 'Das Leben der Anderen'

The article compares Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck's film Das Leben der Anderen (2006) with Kurt Maetzig's early post-war film Ehe im Schatten (1947). The comparison is based on significant narrative and thematic elements which the films share: They both have a ‘theatre couple’, representatives of the ‘Bildungsbürgertum’, at the centre of the story; in both cases the couple faces a crisis caused by the first and second German dictatorship respectively and then both try to solve the crisis by relying on the classical ‘bürgerliches Erbe’, particularly the ‘bürgerliches Trauerspiel’. The extensive use of the ‘bürgerliches Erbe’ in the films activates the function this heritage had for the definition of the German nation in the nineteenth century. However, while Maetzig's film shows how the ‘heritage’ and its representatives fail in the face of National Socialism, von Donnersmarck's film claims the effectiveness of this ‘heritage’ in the fight against the East German dictatorship. Von Donnersmarck thus inverts a critical film tradition of which Ehe im Schatten is an example; furthermore, as this tradition emerged from dealing with the Third Reich, von Donnersmarck's film, it will be argued, is more interested in the redemption of the Nazi past than the East German past.

Dealing with complexity: an autopoietic view of the People's Planning Campaign, Kerala

Complexity is integral to planning today. Everyone and everything seem to be interconnected, causality appears ambiguous, unintended consequences are ubiquitous, and information overload is a constant challenge. The nature of complexity, the consequences of it for society, and the ways in which one might confront it, understand it and deal with it in order to allow for the possibility of planning, are issues increasingly demanding analytical attention. One theoretical framework that can potentially assist planners in this regard is Luhmann's theory of autopoiesis. This article uses insights from Luhmann's ideas to understand the nature of complexity and its reduction, thereby redefining issues in planning, and explores the ways in which management of these issues might be observed in actual planning practice via a reinterpreted case study of the People's Planning Campaign in Kerala, India. Overall, this reinterpretation leads to a different understanding of the scope of planning and planning practice, telling a story about complexity and systemic response. It allows the reinterpretation of otherwise familiar phenomena, both highlighting the empirical relevance of the theory and providing new and original insight into particular dynamics of the case study. This not only provides a greater understanding of the dynamics of complexity, but also produces advice to help planners implement structures and processes that can cope with complexity in practice.

"The past is still right here in the present": second-generation Bajan-Brit transnational migrants' views on issues relating to race and colour class

This paper deals with second-generation Barbadians or 'Bajan-Brits', who have decided to,return' to the birthplace of their parents, focusing on their reactions to matters relating to race relations and racialised identities. The importance of race and the operation of the 'colour-class' system in the Caribbean are established at the outset. Based on fifty-two qualitative in-depth interviews, the paper initially considers the positive things that the second-generation migrants report about living in a majority black country and the salience of such racial affirmation as part of their migration process. The paper then presents an analysis of the narratives provided by the Bajan-Brits concerning their reactions to issues relating to race relations in Barbadian society. The impressions of the young returnees provide clear commentaries on what are regarded as (i) the 'acceptance of white hegemony' within Barbadian society, (ii) the occurrence of de facto 'racial segregation, (iii) perceptions of the 'existence of apartheid, and (iv) 'the continuation of slavery'. The account then turns to the contemporary operation of the colour-class system. It is concluded that, despite academic arguments that the colour-class dimension has to be put to one side as the principal dimension of social stratification in the contemporary Caribbean, the second-generation migrants are acutely aware of the continued existence and salience of such gradations within society. Thus, the analysis not only serves to emphasise the continued importance of racial-based stratification in the contemporary Caribbean, but also speaks of the 'hybrid' and 'in-between' racialised identities of the second-generation migrants.

NSAIDs: GI risk with a past history of peptic ulceration

In this Drug points article the author describes a case of osteoarthritic pain where prescribing diclofenac resulted in gastrointestinal ulceration and comments on the issues it raises.

Parallel performance and scalability experiments with the Danish Eulerian Model on the EPCC supercomputers

The Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) is a powerful air pollution model, designed to calculate the concentrations of various dangerous species over a large geographical region (e.g. Europe). It takes into account the main physical and chemical processes between these species, the actual meteorological conditions, emissions, etc.. This is a huge computational task and requires significant resources of storage and CPU time. Parallel computing is essential for the efficient practical use of the model. Some efficient parallel versions of the model were created over the past several years. A suitable parallel version of DEM by using the Message Passing Interface library (AIPI) was implemented on two powerful supercomputers of the EPCC - Edinburgh, available via the HPC-Europa programme for transnational access to research infrastructures in EC: a Sun Fire E15K and an IBM HPCx cluster. Although the implementation is in principal, the same for both supercomputers, few modifications had to be done for successful porting of the code on the IBM HPCx cluster. Performance analysis and parallel optimization was done next. Results from bench marking experiments will be presented in this paper. Another set of experiments was carried out in order to investigate the sensitivity of the model to variation of some chemical rate constants in the chemical submodel. Certain modifications of the code were necessary to be done in accordance with this task. The obtained results will be used for further sensitivity analysis Studies by using Monte Carlo simulation.

Epic Sea Battle at Night: a Revolutionary Play with the Economic Thinking of Milton Friedman

The play Epic Sea Battle at Night was originally staged in 1967, to commemorate two of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s military triumphs over the Taiwanese navy two years previously. Produced at the height of the Chinese Cultural Revolution, the play is an example of the exploitation of the arts as an ideological instrument, celebrating military heroism and political conviction. Stills from the play were included in, China Pictorial 11, an English language propaganda pamphlet that was distributed to Western Imperialists in order to educate them in Maoist policy. Today, these images are clear representations of ideology. More than forty years after the Cultural Revolution, the ideology under which we live, neo-liberal late-capitalism, deliberately shirks from such blatant displays of propaganda. We have supposedly the freedom to believe whatever we like in a post-ideological age, and yet core beliefs about meritocracy, individualism and competitiveness frequently go unchallenged. By juxtaposing the visual language of ideology with the text of the capitalist manifesto, the re-enactment of a scene from Epic Sea Battle at Night harnesses the aesthetics of the past so as to allow us to reconsider the alleged neutrality of the present. The design of the stage, the positioning of the actors, costumes and props of the current production closely resembled those documented in China Pictorial 11, yet the actors’ monologues belong to a completely different context. No less heroic and utopian in tone than the speech given by the political instructor of gunboat 874 in the original play, the capitalist manifesto was an attempt to give a concrete language to the shapeless ideology of the present, and to force the invisible currents that govern life today, in China as in the West, to the surface. Neither a lecture on neo-liberal economics, nor a theatrical performance of a narrative, the piece appropriated the format of the propaganda play to re-evaluate the relationship between art and politics now.

Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia

Large, well-documented wildfires have recently generated worldwide attention, and raised concerns about the impacts of humans and climate change on wildfire regimes. However, comparatively little is known about the patterns and driving forces of global fire activity before the twentieth century. Here we compile sedimentary charcoal records spanning six continents to document trends in both natural and anthropogenic biomass burning for the past two millennia. We find that global biomass burning declined from AD 1 to 1750, before rising sharply between 1750 and 1870. Global burning then declined abruptly after 1870. The early decline in biomass burning occurred in concert with a global cooling trend and despite a rise in the human population. We suggest the subsequent rise was linked to increasing human influences, such as population growth and land-use changes. Our compilation suggests that the final decline occurred despite increasing air temperatures and population. We attribute this reduction in the amount of biomass burned over the past 150 years to the global expansion of intensive grazing, agriculture and fire management.

Britain and the Commonwealth: confronting the past - imagining the future

This is an extended version of Philip Murphy's inaugural lecture as director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, delivered on 23 February 2011. It traces the relationship of the UK with the wider Commonwealth over 40 years, paying particular attention to the rhetoric of governments and opposition parties from Wilson and Heath to Cameron. It examines the reasons for the Commonwealth being relegated to a peripheral role in British foreign policy, especially European preoccupations and the issues of Rhodesia and South Africa. It argues that the Commonwealth remains of considerable practical and enormous symbolic importance to the UK. The British government should engage with the Commonwealth more than it has done in the recent past and the Commonwealth should be both open to and critical of its imperial past.

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.