Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

The synergies between goal sketching and enterprise architecture

This paper introduces a pragmatic and practical method for requirements modeling. The method is built using the concepts of our goal sketching technique together with techniques from an enterprise architecture modeling language. Our claim is that our method will help project managers who want to establish early control of their projects and will also give managers confidence in the scope of their project. In particular we propose the inclusion of assumptions as first class entities in the ArchiMate enterprise architecture modeling language and an extension of the ArchiMate Motivation Model principle to allow radical as well as normative analyses. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method using a simple university library system as an example.