Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO2 scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO2 and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO2 concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.

Bayesian estimation of co-integrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates.

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cytoprotective effect of alpha-tocopherol and daidzein against d-galactosamine-induced oxidative damage in the rat liver

We hypothesized that the hepatotoxicity that develops after the induction of oxidative stress (induced by d-galactosamine [GalN]) can be ameliorated by alpha-tocopherol (ATC) and the soy isoflavone daidzein. To test this, we ranked and assigned male Wistar rats into 6 groups, which involved pretreatment (ATC or daidzein) for 1 hour followed by treatment (GalN) for 23 hours. Histopathologic analysis showed that GalN administration induced marked necrosis (P < .001), steatosis (P < .001), both lobular and portal inflammations (P < .001), overall histopathologic score (P < .001), and activation of caspase-3 in the liver (P < .001). Immunohistochemical staining of malondialdehyde-protein adducts, a measure of oxidative stress, was increased in response to GalN (P < .001). Paradoxically, there were increases in total (P < .05) and cytosolic superoxide dismutase (P < .001) activities after GalN administration, indicative of an up-regulation of antioxidant defenses. The concentration of total protein (P < .001), albumin (P < .01), and globulin fractions (P < .001) in the plasma, as well as the activity of aspartate aminotransferase (P < .001), was significantly perturbed after GalN treatment, reflective of overall acute hepatic injury. Administration of daidzein showed a significant amelioration of the Ga1N-induced increase in malondialdehyde-protein adducts (P < .01) and cytosolic superoxide dismutase activities (P < .01) in the liver. However, all other variables were not significantly altered in response to daidzein. In response to ATC pretreatment, the total histopathologic score (P < .05), degree of necrosis (P < .05), and both lobular (P < .05) and portal (P = .05) inflammations were significantly ameliorated. To conclude, both daidzein and ATC protect the liver against oxidative damage possibly via different pathways.

Modelling fatigue damage distribution to inform slip and cut policy for riser tensioner ropes

The paper describes a method whereby the distribution of fatigue damage along riser tensioner ropes is calculated, taking account of heave motion, set tension, system geometry, tidal range and rope specification. From these data the distribution of damage along the rope is calculated for a given time period using a Miner’s summation method. This information can then be used to help the operator decide on the length of rope to ‘slip and cut’ whereby a length from the end of the rope is removed and the rope moved through the system from a storage drum such that sections of rope that have already suffered significant fatigue damage are not moved to positions where there is another peak in the distribution. There are two main advantages to be gained by using the fatigue damage model. The first is that it shows the amount of fatigue damage accumulating at different points along the rope, enabling the most highly damaged section to be removed well before failure. The second is that it makes for greater efficiency, as damage can be spread more evenly along the rope over time, avoiding the need to scrap long sections of undamaged rope.

Damage rate is a predictor of fatigue life and creep strain rate in fatigue of tensile human cortical bone samples

We present results on the growth of damage in 29 fatigue tests of human femoral cortical bone from four individuals, aged 53–79. In these tests we examine the interdependency of stress, cycles to failure, rate of creep strain, and rate of modulus loss. The behavior of creep rates has been reported recently for the same donors as an effect of stress and cycles (Cotton, J. R., Zioupos, P., Winwood, K., and Taylor, M., 2003, "Analysis of Creep Strain During Tensile Fatigue of Cortical Bone," J. Biomech. 36, pp. 943–949). In the present paper we first examine how the evolution of damage (drop in modulus per cycle) is associated with the stress level or the "normalized stress" level (stress divided by specimen modulus), and results show the rate of modulus loss fits better as a function of normalized stress. However, we find here that even better correlations can be established between either the cycles to failure or creep rates versus rates of damage than any of these three measures versus normalized stress. The data indicate that damage rates can be excellent predictors of fatigue life and creep strain rates in tensile fatigue of human cortical bone for use in practical problems and computer simulations.

Impact damage characterisation of thermoplastic matrix composites using transmission transient thermography

In this work, IR thermography is used as a non-destructive tool for impact damage characterisation on thermoplastic E-glass/polypropylene composites for automotive applications. The aim of this experimentation was to compare impact resistance and to characterise damage patterns of different laminates, in order to provide indications for their use in components. Two E-glass/polypropylene composites, commingled ®Twintex (with three different weave structures: directional, balanced and 3-D) and random reinforced GMT, were in particular characterised. Directional and balanced Twintex were also coupled in a number of hybrid configurations with GMT to evaluate the possible use of GMT/Twintex hybrids in high-energy absorption components. The laminates were impacted using a falling weight tower, with impact energies ranging from 15 J to penetration. Using IR thermography during cooling down following a long pulse (3 s), impact damaged areas were characterised and the influence of weave structure on damage patterns was studied. IR thermography offered good accuracy for laminates with thickness not exceeding 3.5 mm: this appears to be a limit for the direct use of this method on components, where more refined signal treatment would probably be needed for impact damage characterisation.

Zinc-histidine complex protects cultured cortical neurons against oxidative stress-induced damage

The levels of zinc in the brain are directly affected by dietary zinc and deficiency has been associated with alcohol withdrawal seizures, excitotoxicity, impaired learning and memory and an accelerated rate of dysfunction in aged brain. Although zinc is essential for a healthy nervous system, high concentrations of zinc are neurotoxic, thus it is important to identify the most effective forms of zinc for treatment of conditions of the central nervous system. Accumulating evidence suggests that zinc-histidine complex (Zn(HiS)(2)) has greater biological potency and enhanced bioavailability compared with other zinc salts and also has antioxidant potential. Therefore, in this study we investigated the ability of zinc-histidine to protect cultured cortical neurons against hydrogen peroxide-induced damage. Pre-treating neurons for 18h with subtoxic concentrations of zinc-histidine (5-25 muM) improved neuronal viability and strongly inhibited hydrogen peroxide-induced (75 muM, 30 min) cell damage as assessed by MTT turnover and morphological analysis 24 It later. Low concentrations of zinc-histidine were more neuroprotective than zinc chloride. There was evidence of an anti-apoptotic mechanism of action as zinc-histidine inhibited hydrogen peroxide-induced caspase-3 activation and c-jun-N-terminal kinase phosphorylation. In summary, zinc supplementation with zinc-histidine protects cultured neurons against oxidative insults and inhibits apoptosis which suggests that zinc-histidine may be beneficial in the treatment of diseases of the CNS associated with zinc deficiency. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.