Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

How reward and emotional stimuli induce different reactions across the menstrual cycle

Despite widespread belief that moods are affected by the menstrual cycle, researchers on emotion and reward have not paid much attention to the menstrual cycle until recently. However, recent research has revealed different reactions to emotional stimuli and to rewarding stimuli across the different phases of the menstrual cycle. The current paper reviews the emerging literature on how ovarian hormone fluctuation during the menstrual cycle modulates reactions to emotional stimuli and to reward. Behavioral and neuroimaging studies in humans suggest that estrogen and progesterone have opposing influences. That is, it appears that estrogen enhances reactions to reward, but progesterone counters the facilitative effects of estrogen and decreases reactions to rewards. In contrast, reactions to emotionally arousing stimuli (particularly negative stimuli) appear to be decreased by estrogen but enhanced by progesterone. Potential factors that can modulate the effects of the ovarian hormones (e.g., an inverse quadratic function of hormones’ effects; the structural changes of the hippocampus across the menstrual cycle) are also discussed.

Workflow-oriented collaborative grid portals

The paper presents how workflow-oriented, single-user Grid portals could be extended to meet the requirements of users with collaborative needs. Through collaborative Grid portals different research and engineering teams would be able to share knowledge and resources. At the same time the workflow concept assures that the shared knowledge and computational capacity is aggregated to achieve the high-level goals of the group. The paper discusses the different issues collaborative support requires from Grid portal environments during the different phases of the workflow-oriented development work. While in the design period the most important task of the portal is to provide consistent and fault tolerant data management, during the workflow execution it must act upon the security framework its back-end Grids are built on.

The structure and evolution of the stratospheric vortex in response to natural forcings

The structure and evolution of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is assessed during opposing phases of, primarily, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), but the 11 year solar cycle and winters following large volcanic eruptions are also examined. The analysis is performed by taking 2-D moments of vortex potential vorticity (PV) fields which allow the area and centroid of the vortex to be calculated throughout the ERA-40 reanalysis data set (1958–2002). Composites of these diagnostics for the different phases of the natural forcings are then considered. Statistically significant results are found regarding the structure and evolution of the vortex during, in particular, the ENSO and QBO phases. When compared with the more traditional zonal mean zonal wind diagnostic at 60°N, the moment-based diagnostics are far more robust and contain more information regarding the state of the vortex. The study details, for the first time, a comprehensive sequence of events which map the evolution of the vortex during each of the forcings throughout an extended winter period.

Computer vision and color measurement techniques for inline monitoring of cheese curd syneresis

Optical characteristics of stirred curd were simultaneously monitored during syneresis in a 10-L cheese vat using computer vision and colorimetric measurements. Curd syneresis kinetic conditions were varied using 2 levels of milk pH (6.0 and 6.5) and 2 agitation speeds (12.1 and 27.2 rpm). Measured optical parameters were compared with gravimetric measurements of syneresis, taken simultaneously. The results showed that computer vision and colorimeter measurements have potential for monitoring syneresis. The 2 different phases, curd and whey, were distinguished by means of color differences. As syneresis progressed, the backscattered light became increasingly yellow in hue for circa 20 min for the higher stirring speed and circa 30 min for the lower stirring speed. Syneresis-related gravimetric measurements of importance to cheese making (e.g., curd moisture content, total solids in whey, and yield of whey) correlated significantly with computer vision and colorimetric measurements..

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Correlation shifts and real estate portfolio management

The success of any diversification strategy depends upon the quality of the estimated correlation between assets. It is well known, however, that there is a tendency for the average correlation among assets to increase when the market falls and vice-versa. Thus, assuming that the correlation between assets is a constant over time seems unrealistic. Nonetheless, these changes in the correlation structure as a consequence of changes in the market’s return suggests that correlation shifts can be modelled as a function of the market return. This is the idea behind the model of Spurgin et al (2000), which models the beta or systematic risk, of the asset as a function of the returns in the market. This is an approach that offers particular attractions to fund managers as it suggest ways by which they can adjust their portfolios to benefit from changes in overall market conditions. In this paper the Spurgin et al (2000) model is applied to 31 real estate market segments in the UK using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2000:12. The results show that a number of market segments display significant negative correlation shifts, while others show significantly positive correlation shifts. Using this information fund managers can make strategic and tactical portfolio allocation decisions based on expectations of market volatility alone and so help them achieve greater portfolio performance overall and especially during different phases of the real estate cycle.

The ENSO-Asian monsoon interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

In this study, the authors evaluate the (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) ENSO–Asian monsoon interaction in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as HadCM3. The main focus is on two evolving anomalous anticyclones: one located over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). These two anomalous anticyclones are closely related to the developing and decaying phases of the ENSO and play a crucial role in linking the Asian monsoon to ENSO. It is found that the HadCM3 can well simulate the main features of the evolution of both anomalous anticyclones and the related SST dipoles, in association with the different phases of the ENSO cycle. By using the simulated results, the authors examine the relationship between the WNP/SIO anomalous anticyclones and the ENSO cycle, in particular the biennial component of the relationship. It is found that a strong El Niño event tends to be followed by a more rapid decay and is much more likely to become a La Niña event in the subsequent winter. The twin anomalous anticyclones in the western Pacific in the summer of a decaying El Niño are crucial for the transition from an El Niño into a La Niña. The El Niño (La Niña) events, especially the strong ones, strengthen significantly the correspondence between the SIO anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the preceding autumn and WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the subsequent spring, and favor the persistence of the WNP anomaly from spring to summer. The present results suggest that both El Niño (La Niña) and the SIO/WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies are closely tied with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO). In addition, variability in the East Asian summer monsoon, which is dominated by the internal atmospheric variability, seems to be responsible for the appearance of the WNP anticyclonic anomaly through an upper-tropospheric meridional teleconnection pattern over the western and central Pacific.

A novel approach to national technological accumulation and absorptive capacity: aggregating Cohen and Levinthal

The paper develops a more precise specification and understanding of the process of national-level knowledge accumulation and absorptive capabilities by applying the reasoning and evidence from the firm-level analysis pioneered by Cohen and Levinthal (1989, 1990). In doing so, we acknowledge that significant cross-border effects due to the role of both inward and outward FDI exist and that assimilation of foreign knowledge is not only confined to catching-up economies but is also carried out by countries at the frontier-sharing phase. We postulate a non-linear relationship between national absorptive capacity and the technological gap, due to the effects of the cumulative nature of the learning process and the increase in complexity of external knowledge as the country approaches the technological frontier. We argue that national absorptive capacity and the accumulation of knowledge stock are simultaneously determined. This implies that different phases of technological development require different strategies. During the catching-up phase, knowledge accumulation occurs predominately through the absorption of trade and/or inward FDI-related R&D spillovers. At the pre-frontier-sharing phase onwards, increases in the knowledge base occur largely through independent knowledge creation and actively accessing foreign-located technological spillovers, inter alia through outward FDI-related R&D, joint ventures and strategic alliances.

Observations of urban boundary layer structure during a strong urban heat island event

It has long been known that the urban surface energy balance is different to that of a rural surface, and that heating of the urban surface after sunset gives rise to the Urban Heat Island (UHI). Less well known is how flow and turbulence structure above the urban surface are changed during different phases of the urban boundary layer (UBL). This paper presents new observations above both an urban and rural surface and investigates how much UBL structure deviates from classical behaviour. A 5-day, low wind, cloudless, high pressure period over London, UK, was chosen for analysis, during which there was a strong UHI. Boundary layer evolution for both sites was determined by the diurnal cycle in sensible heat flux, with an extended decay period of approximately 4 h for the convective UBL. This is referred to as the “Urban Convective Island” as the surrounding rural area was already stable at this time. Mixing height magnitude depended on the combination of regional temperature profiles and surface temperature. Given the daytime UHI intensity of 1.5∘C, combined with multiple inversions in the temperature profile, urban and rural mixing heights underwent opposite trends over the period, resulting in a factor of three height difference by the fifth day. Nocturnal jets undergoing inertial oscillations were observed aloft in the urban wind profile as soon as the rural boundary layer became stable: clear jet maxima over the urban surface only emerged once the UBL had become stable. This was due to mixing during the Urban Convective Island reducing shear. Analysis of turbulent moments (variance, skewness and kurtosis) showed “upside-down” boundary layer characteristics on some mornings during initial rapid growth of the convective UBL. During the “Urban Convective Island” phase, turbulence structure still resembled a classical convective boundary layer but with some influence from shear aloft, depending on jet strength. These results demonstrate that appropriate choice of Doppler lidar scan patterns can give detailed profiles of UBL flow. Insights drawn from the observations have implications for accuracy of boundary conditions when simulating urban flow and dispersion, as the UBL is clearly the result of processes driven not only by local surface conditions but also regional atmospheric structure.

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.

On the microphysical effects of observed cloud edge charging

Liquid layer clouds are abundant globally. Lacking strong convection, they do not become electrified by the usual thunderstorm mechanisms of collisional electrification between hydrometeors of different phases. Instead, the background global circuit current flow in fair weather is largely unaffected by the layer cloud’s presence, and, if the layer cloud is extensive horizontally, the vertical fair weather conduction current passes through the cloud. A consequence of the vertical current flow is that, at the cloud-air boundary where there is a conductivity transition and droplets form or evaporate, droplet charging occurs. Charge can affect both droplet evaporation and droplet-droplet collisions. Using new radiosonde instrumentation, the charge observed at layer cloud edges is evaluated for both these microphysical droplet processes. This shows that the charging is more likely to affect collision processes than activation, for small droplets. Enhancing the collection efficiency of small droplets modifies their evolution and propagates through the size distribution to shorten the autoconversion timescale to rain drops, and the cloud radiative properties. Because the conduction current density is influenced by both external (e.g. solar modulation of high energy particles) and internal (e.g. ENSO) factors, current flow leading to layer cloud edge charging provides a possible route for expressing solar influences on the climate system and a teleconnection mechanism for communicating internal climate variability.

Housing Policies in Latin America: overview of the four largest economies

The aim of this paper is to examine the differences and similarities in housing policies in the four Latin American countries of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia. The article uses the welfare regime approach, modified by a recognition of path dependence, to identify a number of phases that each country has passed through. However, attention is drawn to the substantial differences in the circumstances in each country and the extent and duration of the different phases. It is concluded that it can be beneficial to use the concept of a Latin American housing regime, but that this general picture has to be used with an understanding of the path dependence caused by the different context in the individual countries.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.

Development of novel brush-type chiral stationary phases based on terpenoid selectors: HPLC evaluation and theoretical investigation of enantioselective binding interactions

The terpenoid chiral selectors dehydroabietic acid, 12,14-dinitrodehydroabietic acid and friedelin have been covalently linked to silica gel yielding three chiral stationary phases CSP 1, CSP 2 and CSP 3, respectively. The enantiodiscriminating capability of each one of these phases was evaluated by HPLC with four families of chiral aromatic compounds composed of alcohols, amines, phenylalanine and tryptophan amino acid derivatives and beta-lactams. The CSP 3 phase, containing a selector with a large friedelane backbone is particularly suitable for resolving free alcohols and their derivatives bearing fluorine substituents, while CSP 2 with a dehydroabietic architecture is the only phase that efficiently discriminates 1, 1'-binaphthol atropisomers. CSP 3 also gives efficient resolution of the free amines. All three phases resolve well the racemates of N-trifluoracetyl and N-3,5-dinitrobenzoyl phenylalanine amino acid ester derivatives. Good enantioseparation of beta-lactams and N-benzoyl tryptophan amino acid derivatives was achieved on CSP 1. In order to understand the structural factors that govern the chiral molecular recognition ability of these phases, molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in the gas phase with binary diastereomeric complexes formed by the selectors of CSP 1 and CSP 2 and several amino acid derivatives. Decomposition of molecular mechanics energies shows that van der Waals interactions dominate the formation of the diastereomeric transient complexes while the electrostatic binding interactions are primarily responsible for the enantioselective binding of the (R)- and (S)-analytes. Analysis of the hydrogen bonds shows that electrostatic interactions are mainly associated with the formation of N-(HO)-O-...=C enantio selective hydrogen bonds between the amide binding sites from the selectors and the carbonyl groups of the analytes. The role of mobile phase polarity, a mixture of n-hexane and propan-2-ol in different ratios, was also evaluated through molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.