Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

Recent analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the stratosphere and troposphere has suggested that predictability of the state of the tropospheric AO may be obtained from the state of the stratospheric AO. However, much of this research has been of a purely qualitative nature. We present a more thorough statistical analysis of a long AO amplitude dataset which seeks to establish the magnitude of such a link. A relationship between the AO in the lower stratosphere and on the 1000 hPa surface on a 10-45 day time-scale is revealed. The relationship accounts for 5% of the variance of the 1000 hPa time series at its peak value and is significant at the 5% level. Over a similar time-scale the 1000 hPa time series accounts for 1% of itself and is not significant at the 5% level. Further investigation of the relationship reveals that it is only present during the winter season and in particular during February and March. It is also demonstrated that using stratospheric AO amplitude data as a predictor in a simple statistical model results in a gain of skill of 5% over a troposphere-only statistical model. This gain in skill is not repeated if an unrelated time series is included as a predictor in the model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation

This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations. Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology. Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.

The release of silicon from amorphous silica and rice straw in Sri Lankan soils

Silicon release from rice straw and amorphous silica when shaken in solution with five Sri Lankan soils was studied indirectly using sorption isotherms and changes in concentration and directly using straw in dialysis bags examined using electron microscopy. The aim was to further our understanding of the processes and factors affecting the release of straw-Si in soils and its availability to rice. The soils (alfisols and ultisols) shaken with 0.1 M NaCl (5 g per 125 mL for 250 days) produced concentrations of 1 - 4 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si. Amorphous silica added to these suspensions (36.5 mg, containing 17 mg Si) raised the concentrations to 20 - 40 mg L-1, and added rice straw (0.5 g, containing 17 mg Si) gave 10 - 25 mg L-1. Sorption isotherms (7 days equilibrations) were used to calculate from the concentrations the amounts of Si released ( 24 - 38% and 8 - 21%, respectively). Both materials gave about 40 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si plus 30 mg L-1 of disilicic acid-Si when shaken in solution alone (5 g per 125 mL). Straw in dialysis bags ( 0.5 g per 25 mL in 0.1 M NaCl) was shaken in soil suspension ( 5 g per 100 mL) for 60 days. Similar concentrations and releases were measured to those obtained above. About one fifth of the mass of straw was lost by decomposition in the first 15 days. A chloroform treatment prevented decomposition, but Si release was unaffected. Disintegration continued throughout the experiments, with phytoliths being exposed and dissolved. Compared to the rate of release from straw into solution without soil, the release of Si into soil suspensions was increased during the first 20 days by adsorption on the soil, but was then reduced probably through the effect of Fe and Al on the phytolith surfaces. The extent of this blocking effect varied between soils and was not simply related to soil pH.

Exudation of alcohol and aldehyde sugars from roots of defoliated Lolium perenne L. grown under sterile conditions

Root exudates were collected over a 27 day period from defoliated and non-defoliated Lolium perenne L. plants grown under sterile conditions in microlysimeters. Eleven individual sugars, including both aldehyde and alcohol sugars, were identified and quantified with a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer (GC-MS). There was no change in the number of sugars present between 7 and 27 days, but the exudation of alcohol sugars decreased rapidly at about day 12. Xylose and glucose were present in the largest amounts. Defoliation initially increased the total amount of sugars in the exudates, but continuous defoliation reduced total sugar exudation by 16% and induced changes in the exudation patterns of individual sugars. Defoliation enhanced exudation of erythritol, threitol, and xylitol, reduced exudation of glucose and arabitol, but had little effect on the amounts of other sugars exuded. The more complex 6 C, 5 OH aldehyde sugars, especially glucose, showed changes earlier and to a greater extent (17 days), than the 5 C, 4 OH (xylose and ribose) and 6 C 4 OH (fucose) aldehyde groups. These findings confirm the general finding that repeated defoliation reduces the quantity of total sugars exuded, but the pattern of release of individual sugars is complex and variable.

Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean

A high-resolution record of sea-level change spanning the past 1000 years is derived from foraminiferal and chronological analyses of a 2m thick salt-marsh peat sequence at Chezzetcook, Nova Scotia, Canada. Former mean tide level positions are reconstructed with a precision of +/- 0.055 in using a transfer function derived from distributions of modern salt-marsh foraminifera. Our age model for the core section older than 300 years is based on 19 AMS C-14 ages and takes into account the individual probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon ages. The past 300 years is dated by pollen and the isotopes Pb-206, Pb-207, Pb-210, Cs-137 and Am-241. Between AD 1000 and AD 1800, relative sea level rose at a mean rate of 17cm per century. Apparent pre-industrial rises of sea level dated at AD 1500-1550 and AD 1700-1800 cannot be clearly distinguished when radiocarbon age errors are taken into account. Furthermore, they may be an artefact of fluctuations in atmospheric C-14 production. In the 19th century sea level rose at a mean rate of 1.6mm/yr. Between AD 1900 and AD 1920, sea-level rise accelerated to the modern mean rate of 3.2mm/yr. This acceleration corresponds in time with global temperature rise and may therefore be associated with recent global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-invasive imaging of roots with high resolution X-ray micro-tomography

ray micro-tomography is a well-established technique for non-invasive imaging and evaluation of heterogeneous materials. An inexpensive X-ray micro-tomography system has been designed and built for the specific purposes of examining root growth and root/soil interactions. The system uses a silver target X-ray source with a focal spot diameter of 80 mum, an X-ray image intensifier with a sampling aperture of about 100 mum, and a sample with a diameter of 25 mm. Pre-germinated wheat and rape seeds were grown for up to 8-10 days in plastic containers in a sandy loam soil sieved to < 250 μm, and imaged with the X-ray system at regular intervals. The quality of 3 D image obtained was good allowing the development and growth of both root axes and some first-order laterals to be observed. The satisfactory discrimination between soil and roots enabled measurements of root diameter (wheat values were 0.48-1.22 mm) in individual tomographic slices and, by tracking from slice to slice, root lengths were also measured. The measurements obtained were generally within 10% of those obtained from destructive samples measured manually and with a flat-bed scanner. Further developments of the system will allow more detailed examination of the root: soil interface.

Tracking larval insect movement within soil using high resolution X-ray microtomography

1. In contrast to above-ground insects, comparatively little is known about the behaviour of subterranean insects, due largely to the difficulty of studying them in situ. 2. The movement of newly hatched (neonate) clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus L. Coleoptera: Curculinidae) larvae was studied non-invasively using recently developed high resolution X-ray microtomography. 3. The movement and final position of S. lepidus larvae in the soil was reliably established using X-ray microtomography, when compared with larval positions that were determined by destructively sectioning the soil column. 4. Newly hatched S. lepidus larvae were seen to attack the root rhizobial nodules of their host plant, white clover (Trifolium repens L.). Sitona lepidus larvae travelled between 9 and 27 mm in 9 h at a mean speed of 1.8 mm h(-1). 5. Sitona lepidus larvae did not move through the soil in a linear manner, but changed trajectory in both the lateral and vertical planes.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Plant roots release phospholipid surfactants that modify the physical and chemical properties of soil

Plant root mucilages contain powerful surfactants that will alter the interaction of soil solids with water and ions, and the rates of microbial processes. The lipid composition of maize, lupin and wheat root mucilages was analysed by thin layer chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. A commercially available phosphatidylcholine (lecithin), chemically similar to the phospholipid surfactants identified in the mucilages, was then used to evaluate its effects on selected soil properties. The lipids found in the mucilages were principally phosphatidylcholines, composed mainly of saturated fatty acids, in contrast to the lipids extracted from root tissues. In soil at low tension, lecithin reduced the water content at any particular tension by as much as 10 and 50% in soil and acid-washed sand, respectively. Lecithin decreased the amount of phosphate adsorption in soil and increased the phosphate concentration in solution by 10%. The surfactant also reduced net rates of ammonium consumption and nitrate production in soil. These experiments provide the first evidence we are aware of that plant-released surfactants will significantly modify the biophysical environment of the rhizosphere.

The release of silicon from amorphous silica and rice straw in Sri Lankan soils

Silicon release from rice straw and amorphous silica when shaken in solution with five Sri Lankan soils was studied indirectly using sorption isotherms and changes in concentration and directly using straw in dialysis bags examined using electron microscopy. The aim was to further our understanding of the processes and factors affecting the release of straw-Si in soils and its availability to rice. The soils (alfisols and ultisols) shaken with 0.1 M NaCl (5 g per 125 mL for 250 days) produced concentrations of 1 - 4 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si. Amorphous silica added to these suspensions (36.5 mg, containing 17 mg Si) raised the concentrations to 20 - 40 mg L-1, and added rice straw (0.5 g, containing 17 mg Si) gave 10 - 25 mg L-1. Sorption isotherms (7 days equilibrations) were used to calculate from the concentrations the amounts of Si released ( 24 - 38% and 8 - 21%, respectively). Both materials gave about 40 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si plus 30 mg L-1 of disilicic acid-Si when shaken in solution alone (5 g per 125 mL). Straw in dialysis bags ( 0.5 g per 25 mL in 0.1 M NaCl) was shaken in soil suspension ( 5 g per 100 mL) for 60 days. Similar concentrations and releases were measured to those obtained above. About one fifth of the mass of straw was lost by decomposition in the first 15 days. A chloroform treatment prevented decomposition, but Si release was unaffected. Disintegration continued throughout the experiments, with phytoliths being exposed and dissolved. Compared to the rate of release from straw into solution without soil, the release of Si into soil suspensions was increased during the first 20 days by adsorption on the soil, but was then reduced probably through the effect of Fe and Al on the phytolith surfaces. The extent of this blocking effect varied between soils and was not simply related to soil pH.

Empirical Orthogonal Functions: The Medium is the Message

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is a powerful tool for data compression and dimensionality reduction used broadly in meteorology and oceanography. Often in the literature, EOF modes are interpreted individually, independent of other modes. In fact, it can be shown that no such attribution can generally be made. This review demonstrates that in general individual EOF modes (i) will not correspond to individual dynamical modes, (ii) will not correspond to individual kinematic degrees of freedom, (iii) will not be statistically independent of other EOF modes, and (iv) will be strongly influenced by the nonlocal requirement that modes maximize variance over the entire domain. The goal of this review is not to argue against the use of EOF analysis in meteorology and oceanography; rather, it is to demonstrate the care that must be taken in the interpretation of individual modes in order to distinguish the medium from the message.