The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.

NOx and O3 above a tropical rainforest: an analysis with a global and box model

A cross-platform field campaign, OP3, was conducted in the state of Sabah in Malaysian Borneo between April and July of 2008. Among the suite of observations recorded, the campaign included measurements of NOx and O3 – crucial outputs of any model chemistry mechanism. We describe the measurements of these species made from both the ground site and aircraft. We then use the output from two resolutions of the chemistry transport model p-TOMCAT to illustrate the ability of a global model chemical mechanism to capture the chemistry at the rainforest site. The basic model performance is good for NOx and poor for ozone. A box model containing the same chemical mechanism is used to explore the results of the global model in more depth and make comparisons between the two. Without some parameterization of the nighttime boundary layer – free troposphere mixing (i.e. the use of a dilution parameter), the box model does not reproduce the observations, pointing to the importance of adequately representing physical processes for comparisons with surface measurements. We conclude with a discussion of box model budget calculations of chemical reaction fluxes, deposition and mixing, and compare these results to output from p-TOMCAT. These show the same chemical mechanism behaves similarly in both models, but that emissions and advection play particularly strong roles in influencing the comparison to surface measurements.

Analysis of DNA polymorphism in ancient barley herbarium material: validation of the KASP SNP genotyping platform

The availability of crop specimens archived in herbaria and old seed collections represent valuable resources for the analysis of plant genetic diversity and crop domestication. The ability to extract ancient DNA (aDNA) from such samples has recently allowed molecular genetic investigations to be undertaken in ancient materials. While analyses of aDNA initially focused on the use of markers which occur in multiple copies such as the internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) within ribosomal DNA and those requiring amplification of short DNA regions of variable length such as simple sequence repeats (SSRs), emphasis is now moving towards the genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), traditionally undertaken in aDNA by Sanger sequencing. Here, using a panel of barley aDNA samples previously surveyed by Sanger sequencing for putative causative SNPs within the flowering-time gene PPD-H1, we assess the utility of the Kompetitive Allele Specific PCR (KASP) genotyping platform for aDNA analysis. We find KASP to out-perform Sanger sequencing in the genotyping of aDNA samples (78% versus 61% success, respectively), as well as being robust to contamination. The small template size (≥46 bp) and one-step, closed-tube amplification/genotyping process make this platform ideally suited to the genotypic analysis of aDNA, a process which is often hampered by template DNA degradation and sample cross-contamination. Such attributes, as well as its flexibility of use and relatively low cost, make KASP particularly relevant to the genetic analysis of aDNA samples. Furthermore, KASP provides a common platform for the genotyping and analysis of corresponding SNPs in ancient, landrace and modern plant materials. The extended haplotype analysis of PPD-H1 undertaken here (allelic variation at which is thought to be important for the spread of domestication and local adaptation) provides further resolution to the previously identified geographic cline of flowering-time allele distribution, illustrating how KASP can be used to aid genetic analyses of aDNA from plant species. We further demonstrate the utility of KASP by genotyping ten additional genetic markers diagnostic for morphological traits in barley, shedding light on the phenotypic traits, alleles and allele combinations present in these unviable ancient specimens, as well as their geographic distributions.

An eight-parent multiparent advanced generation inter-cross population for winter-sown wheat: creation, properties, and validation

MAGIC populations represent one of a new generation of crop genetic mapping resources combining high genetic recombination and diversity. We describe the creation and validation of an eight-parent MAGIC population consisting of 1091 F7 lines of winter-sown wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Analyses based on genotypes from a 90,000-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array find the population to be well-suited as a platform for fine-mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) and gene isolation. Patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) show the population to be highly recombined; genetic marker diversity among the founders was 74% of that captured in a larger set of 64 wheat varieties, and 54% of SNPs segregating among the 64 lines also segregated among the eight founder lines. In contrast, a commonly used reference bi-parental population had only 54% of the diversity of the 64 varieties with 27% of SNPs segregating. We demonstrate the potential of this MAGIC resource by identifying a highly diagnostic marker for the morphological character "awn presence/absence" and independently validate it in an association-mapping panel. These analyses show this large, diverse, and highly recombined MAGIC population to be a powerful resource for the genetic dissection of target traits in wheat, and it is well-placed to efficiently exploit ongoing advances in phenomics and genomics. Genetic marker and trait data, together with instructions for access to seed, are available at http://www.niab.com/MAGIC/.