Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Conjugated linoleic acid and human health: a critical evaluation of the evidence

Purpose of review: This review critically evaluates studies investigating the effects of conjugated linoleic acid on human health, including effects on body composition, blood lipids, liver metabolism, insulin sensitivity and immune function. It focuses mainly on human intervention studies, but includes some reference to animal and cellular studies which provide insight into potential molecular mechanisms of action of conjugated linoleic acid. Recent findings: Human studies continue to report inconsistent effects of conjugated linoleic acid on human health. Some of these reports are based on overinterpretation of marginal effects of supplementation. Recent data suggest that the effects of the substance may be isomer dependent and that cis-9, trans-11 and trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acids have opposing effects on blood lipids and on metabolism in adipocytes and hepatic cells. Summary: Claims that conjugated linoleic acid is beneficial for health remain as yet unconvincing. Human studies investigating the effects of conjugated linoleic acid supplements have tended to use mixtures of isomers and have been inconsistent. More recent studies have attempted to use relatively pure preparations of single isomers and these studies suggest that the effects of conjugated linoleic acid may be isomer-specific. These recent data suggest a relative detrimental effect of trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on blood lipids. There appears to be little effect of conjugated linoleic acid on immune function and the effects on insulin sensitivity remain unclear.

Thiamine plays a critical role in the acid tolerance of Listeria monocytogenes

Understanding the molecular basis of acid tolerance in the food-borne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes is important as this property contributes to survival in the food-chain and enhances survival within infected hosts. The aim of this study was to identify genes contributing to acid tolerance in L. monocytogenes using transposon mutagenesis and subsequently to elucidate the physiological role of these genes in acid tolerance. One mutant harboring a Tn917 insertion in the thiT gene (formerly lmo1429), which encodes a thiamine (vitamin B1) uptake system, was found to be highly sensitive to acid. The acid-sensitive phenotype associated with loss of this gene was confirmed with an independently isolated mutant, from which the thiT gene was deleted (ΔthiT). Cells of both wild-type and ΔthiT mutant that were thiamine depleted were found to be significantly more acid sensitive than control cultures. Thiamine-depleted cultures failed to produce significant concentrations of acetoin, consistent with the known thiamine dependence of acetolactate synthase, an enzyme required for acetoin synthesis from pyruvate. As acetoin synthesis is a proton-consuming process, we suggest that the acid sensitivity observed in thiamine-depleted cultures may be owing to an inability to produce acetoin.

Documents as 'critical incidents' in organisation to consumer communication

A diary study tracked the paper documents received by nine UK informants over one month. Informants gave simple ratings of individual documents’ attractiveness and the ease of understanding them; more detailed reactions to the documents were gathered through informant diaries and follow-up interviews. The detailed reactions extended beyond the feedback gathered through the rating task. Informants showed sensitivity to the content, language, design and circumstances of receipt of documents, with indications that they developed opinions of originating organizations based on their experience of using their documents. Documents that failed to provide all the information needed, that failed to make their intentions clear (or obscured their intentions) or that were perceived as miss-targeted received negative comment. Repeat experiences of receiving either well- or poorly-conceived documents strengthened informant reactions to individual originating organizations. The paper concludes with recommendations for steps document originators, writers and designers need to take to prepare documents that enhance organization to consumer communication. We recommend that organizations evaluate and act on consumers’ reactions to their documents, beyond user testing in document development or scorecard ratings in use.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.