Carbon dioxide induced stomatal closure increases radiative forcing of climate via a rapid reduction in low cloud

We performed an ensemble of twelve five-year experiments using a coupled climate-carbon-cycle model with scenarios of prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration; CO2 was instantaneously doubled or quadrupled at the start of the experiments. Within these five years, climate feedback is not significantly influenced by the effects of climate change on the carbon system. However, rapid changes take place, within much less than a year, due to the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomatal conductance, leading to adjustment in the shortwave cloud radiative effect over land, due to a reduction in low cloud cover. This causes a 10% enhancement to the radiative forcing due to CO2, which leads to an increase in the equilibrium warming of 0.4 and 0.7 K for doubling and quadrupling. The implications for calibration of energy-balance models are discussed.

An adaptive finite element water column model using the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme

A one-dimensional water column model using the Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 parameterization of vertical turbulent fluxes is presented. The model equations are discretized with a mixed finite element scheme. Details of the finite element discrete equations are given and adaptive mesh refinement strategies are presented. The refinement criterion is an "a posteriori" error estimator based on stratification, shear and distance to surface. The model performances are assessed by studying the stress driven penetration of a turbulent layer into a stratified fluid. This example illustrates the ability of the presented model to follow some internal structures of the flow and paves the way for truly generalized vertical coordinates. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term acclimation of leaf production, development, longevity and quality following 3 yr exposure to free-air CO2 enrichment during canopy closure in Populus

The effects of elevated CO2 on leaf development in three genotypes of Populus were investigated during canopy closure, following exposure to elevated CO2 over 3 yr using free-air enrichment.• Leaf quality was altered such that nitrogen concentration per unit d. wt (Nmass) declined on average by 22 and 13% for sun and shade leaves, respectively, in elevated CO2. There was little evidence that this was the result of ‘dilution’ following accumulation of nonstructural carbohydrates. Most likely, this was the result of increased leaf thickness. Specific leaf area declined in elevated CO2 on average by 29 and 5% for sun and shade leaves, respectively.• Autumnal senescence was delayed in elevated CO2 with a 10% increase in the number of days at which 50% leaf loss occurred in elevated as compared with ambient CO2.• These data suggest that changes in leaf quality may be predicted following long-term acclimation of fast-growing forest trees to elevated CO2, and that canopy longevity may increase, with important implications for forest productivity.

Bistability through triadic closure

We propose and analyse a class of evolving network models suitable for describing a dynamic topological structure. Applications include telecommunication, on-line social behaviour and information processing in neuroscience. We model the evolving network as a discrete time Markov chain, and study a very general framework where, conditioned on the current state, edges appear or disappear independently at the next timestep. We show how to exploit symmetries in the microscopic, localized rules in order to obtain conjugate classes of random graphs that simplify analysis and calibration of a model. Further, we develop a mean field theory for describing network evolution. For a simple but realistic scenario incorporating the triadic closure effect that has been empirically observed by social scientists (friends of friends tend to become friends), the mean field theory predicts bistable dynamics, and computational results confirm this prediction. We also discuss the calibration issue for a set of real cell phone data, and find support for a stratified model, where individuals are assigned to one of two distinct groups having different within-group and across-group dynamics.

The (de)merits of minimum-variance hedging: application to the crack spread

We study the empirical performance of the classical minimum-variance hedging strategy, comparing several econometric models for estimating hedge ratios of crude oil, gasoline and heating oil crack spreads. Given the great variability and large jumps in both spot and futures prices, considerable care is required when processing the relevant data and accounting for the costs of maintaining and re-balancing the hedge position. We find that the variance reduction produced by all models is statistically and economically indistinguishable from the one-for-one “naïve” hedge. However, minimum-variance hedging models, especially those based on GARCH, generate much greater margin and transaction costs than the naïve hedge. Therefore we encourage hedgers to use a naïve hedging strategy on the crack spread bundles now offered by the exchange; this strategy is the cheapest and easiest to implement. Our conclusion contradicts the majority of the existing literature, which favours the implementation of GARCH-based hedging strategies.

3D cloud reconstructions: evaluation of scanning radar scan strategy with a view to surface shortwave radiation closure

The ability of six scanning cloud radar scan strategies to reconstruct cumulus cloud fields for radiation study is assessed. Utilizing snapshots of clean and polluted cloud fields from large eddy simulations, an analysis is undertaken of error in both the liquid water path and monochromatic downwelling surface irradiance at 870 nm of the reconstructed cloud fields. Error introduced by radar sensitivity, choice of radar scan strategy, retrieval of liquid water content (LWC), and reconstruction scheme is explored. Given an in␣nitely sensitive radar and perfect LWC retrieval, domain average surface irradiance biases are typically less than 3 W m␣2 ␣m␣1, corresponding to 5–10% of the cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, when using a realistic radar sensitivity of ␣37.5 dBZ at 1 km, optically thin areas and edges of clouds are dif␣cult to detect due to their low radar re-ectivity; in clean conditions, overestimates are of order 10 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~20% of the CRE), but in polluted conditions, where the droplets are smaller, this increases to 10–26 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~40–100% of the CRE). Drizzle drops are also problematic; if treated as cloud droplets, reconstructions are poor, leading to large underestimates of 20–46 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 in domain average surface irradiance (~40–80% of the CRE). Nevertheless, a synergistic retrieval approach combining the detailed cloud structure obtained from scanning radar with the droplet-size information and location of cloud base gained from other instruments would potentially make accurate solar radiative transfer calculations in broken cloud possible for the first time.

Reconfiguration and closure of lobe flux by reconnection during northward IMF: possible evidence for signatures in cusp/cleft auroral emissions

Observations are presented of the response of the dayside cusp/cleft aurora to changes in both the clock and elevation angles of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, as monitored by the WIND spacecraft. The auroral observations are made in 630 nm light at the winter solstice near magnetic noon, using an all-sky camera and a meridian-scanning photometer on the island of Spitsbergen. The dominant change was the response to a northward turning of the IMF which caused a poleward retreat of the dayside aurora. A second, higher-latitude band of aurora was seen to form following the northward turning, which is interpreted as the effect of lobe reconnection which reconfigures open flux. We suggest that this was made possible in the winter hemisphere, despite the effect of the Earth's dipole tilt, by a relatively large negative X component of the IMF. A series of five events then formed in the poleward band and these propagated in a southwestward direction and faded at the equatorward edge of the lower-latitude band as it migrated poleward. It is shown that the auroral observations are consistent with overdraped lobe flux being generated by lobe reconnection in the winter hemisphere and subsequently being re-closed by lobe reconnection in the summer hemisphere. We propose that the balance between the reconnection rates at these two sites is modulated by the IMF elevation angle, such that when the IMF points more directly northward, the summer lobe reconnection site dominates, re-closing all overdraped lobe flux and eventually becoming disconnected from the Northern Hemisphere.