Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Effects of phosphorus intake on phosphorus flow in growing pigs: Application and comparison of two models

A comparison of the models of Vitti et al. (2000, J. Anim. Sci. 78, 2706-2712) and Fernandez (1995c, Livest. Prod. Sci. 41, 255-261) was carried out using two data sets on growing pigs as input. The two models compared were based on similar basic principles, although their aims and calculations differed. The Vitti model employs the rate:state formalism and describes phosphorus (P) flow between four pools representing P content in gut, blood, bone and soft tissue in growing goats. The Fernandez model describes flow and fractional recirculation between P pools in gut, blood and bone in growing pigs. The results from both models showed similar trends for P absorption from gut to blood and net retention in bone with increasing P intake, with the exception of the 65 kg results from Date Set 2 calculated using the FernAndez model. Endogenous loss from blood back to gut increased faster with increasing P intake in the FernAndez than in the Vitti model for Data Set 1. However, for Data Set 2, endogenous loss increased with increasing P intake using the Vitti model, but decreased when calculated using the FernAndez model. Incorporation of P into bone was not influenced by intake in the FernAndez model, while in the Vitti model there was an increasing trend. The FernAndez model produced a pattern of decreasing resorption in bone with increasing P intake, with one of the data sets, which was not observed when using the Vitti model. The pigs maintained their P homeostasis in blood by regulation of P excretion in urine. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dimension and coverage of multiple-models structures using clustering techniques

In this work a method for building multiple-model structures is presented. A clustering algorithm that uses data from the system is employed to define the architecture of the multiple-model, including the size of the region covered by each model, and the number of models. A heating ventilation and air conditioning system is used as a testbed of the proposed method.

Synthesis and structure of the Mn II,II complex salt [Mn2(η1η1μ2-oda)(phen)4(H2O)2][Mn2][Mn2(η1η1μ2-oda)(phen)4(η1-oda)2].4H2O (odah2 = octanedioic acid): a catalyst for H2O2 disproportionation

The synthesis and X-ray crystal structure of the MnII,11 complex double salt [Mn2(η1η1µ2-oda)(phen)4(H2O)2][Mn2(η1η1µ2-oda(phen)4(η1-oda)2]·4H2O is reported, together with its catalytic activity towards the disproportionation of H2O2.

Synthesis and properties of tetra-μ-acetatodiruthenium(II,III) phenylphosphinate and phenylphosphonate complexes: X-ray crystal structures of [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(HPhPO2)2]H and [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(PhPO3H)2]H·H2O

Phenylphosphinic acid (HPhPO2H) and phenylphosphonic acid (PhPO3H2) react with a methanolic solution of [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(O2CCH3)2]H·0.7H2O at room temperature to give [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4(HPhPO2)2H (1) and [Ru2(μ-O2CCH3)4 (PhPO3H)2]H·H2O (2), respectively. The X-ray crystal structures of 1 and 2 each show the RuRu core to be ligated by four bridging bidentate acetate ligands [RuRu distances: 1 = 2.272(1) Å; 2 = 2.267(2) Å] and two axial phenylphosphinate and phenylphosphonate ligands, respectively. In each complex the individual bimetallic molecules are linked together by a hydrogen ion which bridges the oxygen atoms of neighbouring axial ligands. In 2 the water molecule is also hydrogen-bonded to one of the axial phenylphosphonate groups. Spectroscopic, magnetic and cyclic voltammetric data for the complexes are given.

The UK Department of National Heritage: a model for the development and integration of leisure policy in the new Europe?

Leisure is in the vanguard of a social and cultural revolution which is replacing the former East/West political bipolarity with a globalised economic system in which the new Europe has a central rôle. Within this revolution, leisure, including recreation, culture and tourism, is constructed as the epitome of successful capitalist development; the very legitimisation of the global transmogrification from a production to a consumption orientation. While acting as a direct encouragement to the political transformation in many eastern European states, it is uncertain how the issue of leisure policy is being handled, given its centrality to the new economic order. This paper therefore examines the experience of western Europe, considering in particular the degree to which the newly-created Department of National Heritage in the UK provides a potential model for leisure development and policy integration in the new Europe. Despite an official rhetoric of support and promotion of leisure activities, reflecting the growing economic significance of tourism and the positive relationship between leisure provision and regional economic development, the paper establishes that in the place of the traditional rôle of the state in promoting leisure interests, the introduction of the Department has signified a shift to the use of leisure to promote the Government's interests, particularly in regenerating citizen rights claims towards the market. While an institution such as the Department of National Heritage may have relevance to emerging states as a element in the maintenance of political hegemony, therefore, it is questionable how far it can be viewed as a promoter or protector of leisure as a signifier of a newly-won political, economic and cultural freedom throughout Europe.

Synthesis and properties of new Mo(II) complexes with N-heterocyclic and ferrocenyl ligands

New Mo(II) complexes with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (L1), [Mo(CH(3)CN)(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)]OTf (C1a) and [{MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)}(2)(4,4'-bipy)](PF(6))(2) (C1b), with {[bis(2-pyridyl)amino]carbonyl}ferrocene (L2), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L2)] (C2), and with the new ligand N,N-bis(ferrocenecarbonyl)-2-aminopyridine (L3), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] (C3), were prepared and characterized by FTIR and (1)H and (13)C NMR spectroscopy. C1a, C1b, L3, and C2 were also structurally characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The Mo(II) coordination sphere in all complexes features the facial arrangement of allyl and carbonyl ligands, with the axial isomer present in C1a and C2, and the equatorial in the binuclear C1b. In both C1a and C1b complexes, the L1 ligand is bonded to Mo(II) through the nitrogen atoms and the NH group is involved in hydrogen bonds. The X-ray single crystal structure of C2 shows that L2 is coordinated in a kappa(2)-N,N-bidentate chelating fashion. Complex C3 was characterized as [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] with L3 acting as a kappa(2)-N,O-bidentate ligand, based on the spectroscopic data, complemented by DFT calculations. The electrochemical behavior of the monoferrocenyl and diferrocenyl ligands L2 and L3 has been studied together with that of their Mo(II) complexes C2 and C3. As much as possible, the nature of the different redox changes has been confirmed by spectrophotometric measurements. The nature of the frontier orbitals, namely the localization of the HOMO in Mo for both in C2 and C3, was determined by DFT studies.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

Reach & grasp therapy: Design and control of a 9-DOF robotic neuro-rehabilitation system

This paper presents the Gentle/G integrated system for reach & grasp therapy retraining following brain injury. The design, control and integration of an experimental grasp assistance unit is described for use in robot assisted stroke rehabilitation. The grasp assist unit is intended to work with the hardware and software of the Gentle/S robot although the hardware could be adapted to other rehabilitation applications. When used with the Gentle/S robot a total of 6 active and 3 passive degrees of freedom are available to provide active, active assist or passive grasp retraining in combination with reaching movements in a reach-grasp-transfer-release sequence.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.