Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments

A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions.

Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.

Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model

The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004-5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3 km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

The influence of organic acids in relation to acid deposition in controlling the acidity of soil and stream waters on a seasonal basis

Much uncertainty still exists regarding the relative importance of organic acids in relation to acid deposition in controlling the acidity of soil and surface waters. This paper contributes to this debate by presenting analysis of seasonal variations in atmospheric deposition, soil solution and stream water chemistry for two UK headwater catchments with contrasting soils. Acid neutralising capacity (ANC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and the Na:Cl ratio of soil and stream waters displayed strong seasonal patterns with little seasonal variation observed in soil water pH. These patterns, plus the strong relationships between ANC, Cl and DOC, suggest that cation exchange and seasonal changes in the production of DOC and seasalt deposition are driving a shift in the proportion of acidity attributable to strong acid anions, from atmospheric deposition, during winter to predominantly organic acids in summer.

Implications of Commons Act 2006 for the registration of land as a town or village green

This paper describes the main changes of Commons Act 2006 for the registration of land as a town or village green. The purpose of the Commons Act 2006 is to protect common land and promote sustainable farming, public access to the countryside and the interests of wildlife. The changes under s15 of the Commons Act 2006 include the additional 2-year grace period for application, discounting statutory period of closure, correction of mistakes in registers, disallowing severance of rights, voluntary registration, replacement of land in exchange and some other provisions. The transitional provision contained in s15(4) Commons Act 2006 is particularly a cause for controversy as DEFRA has indicated buildings will have to be taken down where development has gone ahead and a subsequent application to register the land as a green is successful, obliging the developer to return the land to a condition consistent with the exercise by locals of recreational rights, which sums up that it would be harder in future to develop land which has the potential to be registered as a town or village green.

Evaluation of the S(T) assimilation method with the Argo dataset

Recent observations from the Argo dataset of temperature and salinity profiles are used to evaluate a series of 3-year data assimilation experiments in a global ice–ocean general circulation model. The experiments are designed to evaluate a new data assimilation system whereby salinity is assimilated along isotherms, S(T ). In addition, the role of a balancing salinity increment to maintain water mass properties is investigated. This balancing increment is found to effectively prevent spurious mixing in tropical regions induced by univariate temperature assimilation, allowing the correction of isotherm geometries without adversely influencing temperature–salinity relationships. In addition, the balancing increment is able to correct a fresh bias associated with a weak subtropical gyre in the North Atlantic using only temperature observations. The S(T ) assimilation method is found to provide an important improvement over conventional depth level assimilation, with lower root-mean-squared forecast errors over the upper 500 m in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. An additional set of experiments is performed whereby Argo data are withheld and used for independent evaluation. The most significant improvements from Argo assimilation are found in less well-observed regions (Indian, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans). When Argo salinity data are assimilated in addition to temperature, improvements to modelled temperature fields are obtained due to corrections to model density gradients and the resulting circulation. It is found that observations from the Argo array provide an invaluable tool for both correcting modelled water mass properties through data assimilation and for evaluating the assimilation methods themselves.

Impact of hydrographic data assimilation on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Here we make an initial step toward the development of an ocean assimilation system that can constrain the modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to support climate predictions. A detailed comparison is presented of 1° and 1/4° resolution global model simulations with and without sequential data assimilation, to the observations and transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array across 26.5° N in the Atlantic. Comparisons of modelled water properties with the observations from the merged RAPID boundary arrays demonstrate the ability of in situ data assimilation to accurately constrain the east-west density gradient between these mooring arrays. However, the presence of an unconstrained "western boundary wedge" between Abaco Island and the RAPID mooring site WB2 (16 km offshore) leads to the intensification of an erroneous southwards flow in this region when in situ data are assimilated. The result is an overly intense southward upper mid-ocean transport (0–1100 m) as compared to the estimates derived from the RAPID array. Correction of upper layer zonal density gradients is found to compensate mostly for a weak subtropical gyre circulation in the free model run (i.e. with no assimilation). Despite the important changes to the density structure and transports in the upper layer imposed by the assimilation, very little change is found in the amplitude and sub-seasonal variability of the AMOC. This shows that assimilation of upper layer density information projects mainly on the gyre circulation with little effect on the AMOC at 26° N due to the absence of corrections to density gradients below 2000 m (the maximum depth of Argo). The sensitivity to initial conditions was explored through two additional experiments using a climatological initial condition. These experiments showed that the weak bias in gyre intensity in the control simulation (without data assimilation) develops over a period of about 6 months, but does so independently from the overturning, with no change to the AMOC. However, differences in the properties and volume transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) persisted throughout the 3 year simulations resulting in a difference of 3 Sv in AMOC intensity. The persistence of these dense water anomalies and their influence on the AMOC is promising for the development of decadal forecasting capabilities. The results suggest that the deeper waters must be accurately reproduced in order to constrain the AMOC.

A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

Cell-penetrating peptide-morpholino conjugates alter pre-mRNA splicing of DMD (Duchenne muscular dystrophy) and inhibit murine coronavirus replication in vivo

The cellular uptake of PMOs (phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers) can be enhanced by their conjugation to arginine-rich CPPs (cell-penetrating peptides). Here, we discuss our recent findings regarding (R-Ahx-R)(4)AhxB (Ahx is 6-aminohexanoic acid and B is beta-alanine) CPP-PMO conjugates in DMD (Duchenne muscular dystrophy) and murine coronavirus research. An (R-Ahx-R)(4)AhxB-PMO conjugate was the most effective compound in inducing the correction of mutant dystrophin transcripts in myoblasts derived from a canine model of DMD. Similarly, normal levels of dystrophin expression were restored in the diaphragms of mdx mice, with treatment starting at the neonatal stage, and protein was still detecTable 22 weeks after the last dose of an (R-Ahx-R)(4)AhxB-PMO conjugate. Effects of length, linkage and carbohydrate modification of this CPP on the delivery of a PMO were investigated in a coronavirus mouse model. An (R-Ahx-R)(4)AhxB-PMO conjugate effectively inhibited viral replication, in comparison with other peptides conjugated to the same PMO. Shortening the CPP length, modifying it with a mannosylated serine moiety or replacing it with the R(9)F(2) CPP significantly decreased the efficacy of the resulting PPMO (CPP-PMO conjugate). We attribute the success of this CPP to its stability in serum and its capacity to transport PMO to RNA targets in a manner superior to that of poly-arginine CPPs.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in air

A commercial dodecylbenzene (DDB) cable oil was aged at temperatures between 90 and 135 degrees C in air and was analyzed using various analytical techniques including optical and infra-red spectroscopy and dielectric analysis. On ageing, the oil darkened, significant oxidation features were found by infra-red spectroscopy and the acid number, water content and dielectric loss all increased. Ageing in the presence of paper or aluminum did not affect the ageing process, whereas ageing was significantly modified by the presence of copper. An absorption at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected by ultra-violet/visible spectroscopy followed by the production of an opaque precipitate. A reaction between copper and the acid generated on ageing is thought to produce copper carboxylates, and X-ray fluorescence confirmed that copper was indeed present in both the aged oil and the precipitate. Significantly, once red absorbers were detected, the dielectric loss increased to catastrophically high values and, therefore, the appearance of these compounds may serve as a useful diagnostic indicator. The development of acidity on ageing appears to be key in initiating the destructive copper conversion reaction and hence the control of oil acidity may be key to prolonging the life of DDB cable oils.

Superacid-catalyzed polycondensation of acenaphthenequinone with aromatic hydrocarbons

A novel series of linear, high molecular weight polymers were synthesized by one-pot, superacid-catalyzed reaction of acenaphthenequinone (1) with aromatic hydrocarbons. The reactions were performed at room temperature in the Bronsted superacid CF3SO3H (trifluoromethanesulfonic acid, TFSA) and in a mixture of TFSA with methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), which was used as both solvent and a medium for generation of electrophilic species from acenaphthenequinone. The polymer-forming reaction was found to be dependent greatly on the acidity of the reaction medium, as judged from the viscosity of the polymers obtained. Polycondensations of acenaphthenequinone with 4,4'-diphenoxybenzophenone (f), 1,3-bis(4-phenoxybenzoyl)benzene (g), 1,4-bis(4-phenoxybenzoyl)benzene (h), 1,10-bis(4-phenoxyphenyl)decane-1,10-dione (i), 2,6-diphenoxybenzonitrile), 2,6-diphenoxybenzoic acid (k), and 2-(4-biphenylyl)-6-phenylbenzoxazole (1) proceeded in a reaction medium of wide range of acidity, including pure TFSA (Hammett acidity function H-0 of pure TFSA is -14.1), whereas condensation of 1 with biphenyl, terphenyl, diphenyl ether, and 1,4-diphenoxybenzene needed a reaction medium of acidity H-0 less than -11.5. A possible reaction mechanism is suggested. The polymers obtained were found to be soluble in the common organic solvents, and flexible transparent films could be cast from the solutions. H-1 and C-13 NMR analyses of the polymers synthesized revealed their linear, highly regular structure. The polymers also possess high thermostability. Char yields for polymers 3a, 3c, 3d, and 3l in nitrogen were close to 80% at 1000 degrees C.

A wind-tunnel study of flow distortion at a meteorological sensor on top of the BT Tower, London, UK

High quality wind measurements in cities are needed for numerous applications including wind engineering. Such data-sets are rare and measurement platforms may not be optimal for meteorological observations. Two years' wind data were collected on the BT Tower, London, UK, showing an upward deflection on average for all wind directions. Wind tunnel simulations were performed to investigate flow distortion around two scale models of the Tower. Using a 1:160 scale model it was shown that the Tower causes a small deflection (ca. 0.5°) compared to the lattice on top on which the instruments were placed (ca. 0–4°). These deflections may have been underestimated due to wind tunnel blockage. Using a 1:40 model, the observed flow pattern was consistent with streamwise vortex pairs shed from the upstream lattice edge. Correction factors were derived for different wind directions and reduced deflection in the full-scale data-set by <3°. Instrumental tilt caused a sinusoidal variation in deflection of ca. 2°. The residual deflection (ca. 3°) was attributed to the Tower itself. Correction of the wind-speeds was small (average 1%) therefore it was deduced that flow distortion does not significantly affect the measured wind-speeds and the wind climate statistics are reliable.