Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Migration and diversity in Roman Britain: a multidisciplinary approach to immigrants in Roman York, England

Previous anthropological investigations at Trentholme Drive, in Roman York identified an unusual amount of cranial variation amongst the inhabitants, with some individuals suggested as having originated from the Middle East or North Africa. The current study investigates the validity of this assessment using modern anthropological methods to assess cranial variation in two groups: The Railway and Trentholme Drive. Strontium and oxygen isotope evidence derived from the dentition of 43 of these individuals was combined with the craniometric data to provide information on possible levels of migration and the range of homelands that may be represented. The results of the craniometric analysis indicated that the majority of the York population had European origins, but that 11% of the Trentholme Drive and 12% of The Railway study samples were likely of African decent. Oxygen analysis identified four incomers, three from areas warmer than the UK and one from a cooler or more continental climate. Although based on a relatively small sample of the overall population at York, this multidisciplinary approach made it possible to identify incomers, both men and women, from across the Empire. Evidence for possible second generation migrants was also suggested. The results confirm the presence of a heterogeneous population resident in York and highlight the diversity, rather than the uniformity, of the population in Roman Britain. Am J Phys Anthropol 140:546-561, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Where do winds drive the Antarctic Circumpolar Current?

The strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is believed to depend on the westerly wind stress blowing over the Southern Ocean, although the exact relationship between winds and circumpolar transport is yet to be determined. Here we show, based on theoretical arguments and a hierarchy of numerical modeling experiments, that the global pycnocline depth and the baroclinic ACC transport are set by an integral measure of the wind stress over the path of the ACC, taking into account its northward deflection. Our results assume that the mesoscale eddy diffusivity is independent of the mean flow; while the relationship between wind stress and ACC transport will be more complicated in an eddy-saturated regime, our conclusion that the ACC is driven by winds over the circumpolar streamlines is likely to be robust.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Plumatella geimermassardi, a newly recognized freshwater bryozoan from Britain, Ireland, and continental Europe (Bryozoa : Phylactolaemata)

Plumatella geimermassardi is a newly recognized species of phylactolaemate bryozoan. Its known range extends from Ireland east through southern Norway and south into Italy. Colonies grow close to the substrate with little free branching; the body wall is mostly transparent and without an obvious raphe. Floatoblasts are broadly oval and relatively small, with distinctively large dorsal fenestra and uniformly narrow ventral annulus. The sessoblast basal valve is low and dish-shaped; the annulus bears tubercles which vary in their prominence. This species brings to 14 the number of phylactolaemate bryozoans known in the region.

Design of redundant drive joint with adjustable stiffness and damping mechanism to improve joint admittance

Improving admittance of robotic joints is the key issue for making rehabilitation robots safe. This paper describes a design of Redundant Drive Joint (RD-Joint) which allows greater flexibility in the design of robotic mechanisms. The design strategy of the RD-Joint employs a systematic approach which consists of 1) adopting a redundant joint mechanism with internal kinematical redundancy to reduce effective joint inertia, and 2) adopting an adjustable admittance mechanism with a novel Cross link Reduction Mechanism and mechanical springs and dampers as a passive second actuator. First, the basic concepts used to construct the redundant drive joint mechanism are explained, in particular the method that allows a reduction in effective inertia at the output joint. The basic structure of the RD-Joint is introduced based on the idea of reduced inertia along with a method to include effective stiffness and damping. Then, the basic design of the adjustable admittance mechanism is described. Finally, a prototype of RD-joint is described and its expected characteristics are discussed.

Impedance control of redundant drive joints with double actuation

This paper proposes impedance control of redundant drive joints with double actuation (RDJ-DA) to produce compliant motions with the future goal of higher bandwidth. First, to reduce joint inertia, a double-input-single-output mechanism with one internal degree of freedom (DOF) is presented as part of the basic structure of the RDJ-DA. Next, the basic structure of RDJ-DA is further explained and its dynamics and statics are derived. Then, the impedance control scheme of RDJ-DA to produce compliant motions is proposed and the validity of the proposed controller is investigated using numerical examples.