A review of time use models of residential electricity demand

Residential electricity demand in most European countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption. The timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs. This paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling. It highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll-out of smart metres.

Case-based analysis in user requirements modelling for knowledge construction

Context: Learning can be regarded as knowledge construction in which prior knowledge and experience serve as basis for the learners to expand their knowledge base. Such a process of knowledge construction has to take place continuously in order to enhance the learners’ competence in a competitive working environment. As the information consumers, the individual users demand personalised information provision which meets their own specific purposes, goals, and expectations. Objectives: The current methods in requirements engineering are capable of modelling the common user’s behaviour in the domain of knowledge construction. The users’ requirements can be represented as a case in the defined structure which can be reasoned to enable the requirements analysis. Such analysis needs to be enhanced so that personalised information provision can be tackled and modelled. However, there is a lack of suitable modelling methods to achieve this end. This paper presents a new ontological method for capturing individual user’s requirements and transforming the requirements onto personalised information provision specifications. Hence the right information can be provided to the right user for the right purpose. Method: An experiment was conducted based on the qualitative method. A medium size of group of users participated to validate the method and its techniques, i.e. articulates, maps, configures, and learning content. The results were used as the feedback for the improvement. Result: The research work has produced an ontology model with a set of techniques which support the functions for profiling user’s requirements, reasoning requirements patterns, generating workflow from norms, and formulating information provision specifications. Conclusion: The current requirements engineering approaches provide the methodical capability for developing solutions. Our research outcome, i.e. the ontology model with the techniques, can further enhance the RE approaches for modelling the individual user’s needs and discovering the user’s requirements.

Modelling the construction projects using plans of work

An overview of organization in the construction industry is identified from plans of work published in the UK. This provides a basis for identifying the essential steps through which any construction project must pass. It is shown that all construction projects pass through a set of stages of work, consisting of inception, feasibility, scheme design, detail design, contract formation, construction and commissioning. Although there may be changes to the sequence and importance of these stages, their identification helps in making judgements about organizational structure on construction projects.

Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

A mixture of experts network structure construction algorithm for modelling and control

This paper introduces a new fast, effective and practical model structure construction algorithm for a mixture of experts network system utilising only process data. The algorithm is based on a novel forward constrained regression procedure. Given a full set of the experts as potential model bases, the structure construction algorithm, formed on the forward constrained regression procedure, selects the most significant model base one by one so as to minimise the overall system approximation error at each iteration, while the gate parameters in the mixture of experts network system are accordingly adjusted so as to satisfy the convex constraints required in the derivation of the forward constrained regression procedure. The procedure continues until a proper system model is constructed that utilises some or all of the experts. A pruning algorithm of the consequent mixture of experts network system is also derived to generate an overall parsimonious construction algorithm. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new algorithms. The mixture of experts network framework can be applied to a wide variety of applications ranging from multiple model controller synthesis to multi-sensor data fusion.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Modelling for planning building design - a critique of available approaches

This paper reviews four approaches used to create rational tools to aid the planning and the management of the building design process and then proposes a fifth approach. The new approach that has been developed is based on the mechanical aspects of technology rather than subjective design issues. The knowledge base contains, for each construction technology, a generic model of the detailed design process. Each activity in the process is specified by its input and output information needs. By connecting the input demands of one technology with the output supply from another technology a map or network of design activity is formed. Thus, it is possible to structure a specific model from the generic knowledge base within a KBE system.

E-commerce system simulation for construction and demolition waste exchange

This article introduces a quantitative approach to e-commerce system evaluation based on the theory of process simulation. The general concept of e-commerce system simulation is presented based on the considerations of some limitations in e-commerce system development such as the huge amount of initial investments of time and money, and the long period from business planning to system development, then to system test and operation, and finally to exact return; in other words, currently used system analysis and development method cannot tell investors about some keen attentions such as how good their e-commerce system could be, how many investment repayments they could have, and which area they should improve regarding the initial business plan. In order to exam the value and its potential effects of an e-commerce business plan, it is necessary to use a quantitative evaluation approach and the authors of this article believe that process simulation is an appropriate option. The overall objective of this article is to apply the theory of process simulation to e-commerce system evaluation, and the authors will achieve this though an experimental study on a business plan for online construction and demolition waste exchange. The methodologies adopted in this article include literature review, system analysis and development, simulation modelling and analysis, and case study. The results from this article include the concept of e-commerce system simulation, a comprehensive review of simulation methods adopted in e-commerce system evaluation, and a real case study of applying simulation to e-commerce system evaluation. Furthermore, the authors hope that the adoption and implementation of the process simulation approach can effectively support business decision-making, and improve the efficiency of e-commerce systems.

Modelling trade contractor information production

Design management research usually deals with the processes within the professional design team and yet, in the UK, the volume of the total project information produced by the specialist trade contractors equals or exceeds that produced by the design team. There is a need to understand the scale of this production task and to plan and manage it accordingly. The model of the process on which the plan is to be based, while generic, must be sufficiently robust to cover the majority of instances. An approach using design elements, in sufficient depth to possibly develop tools for a predictive model of the process, is described. The starting point is that each construction element and its components have a generic sequence of design activities. Specific requirements tailor the element's application to the building. Then there are the constraints produced due to the interaction with other elements. Therefore, the selection of a component within the element may impose a set of constraints that will affect the choice of other design elements. Thus, a design decision can be seen as an interrelated element-constraint-element (ECE) sub-net. To illustrate this approach, an example of the process within precast concrete cladding has been used.

Modelling trade contractor information production

Design management research usually deals with the processes within the professional design team and yet, in the UK, the volume of the total project information produced by the specialist trade contractors equals or exceeds that produced by the design team. There is a need to understand the scale of this production task and to plan and manage it accordingly. The model of the process on which the plan is to be based, while generic, must be sufficiently robust to cover the majority of instances. An approach using design elements, in sufficient depth to possibly develop tools for a predictive model of the process, is described. The starting point is that each construction element and its components have a generic sequence of design activities. Specific requirements tailor the element's application to the building. Then there are the constraints produced due to the interaction with other elements. Therefore, the selection of a component within the element may impose a set of constraints that will affect the choice of other design elements. Thus, a design decision can be seen as an interrelated element-constraint-element (ECE) sub-net. To illustrate this approach, an example of the process within precast concrete cladding has been used.

On the discourse of construction competitiveness

It is contended that competitiveness is better understood as a discourse rather than as a characteristic that is supposedly possessed. The discourse of competitiveness derives its legitimacy from the enterprise culture that came to dominance during the 1980s. Current popularized theories of competitiveness are constituent parts of this broader discourse, which has had significant material implications for the UK construction sector. The dominant discourse of competitiveness amongst contracting firms is shaped by the need to achieve structural flexibility to cope with fluctuations in demand. Fashionable espoused improvement recipes such as total quality management, business process re-engineering, and lean construction legitimize and reinforce the material manifestations of the enterprise culture. In consequence, the UK industry is characterized by a plethora of hollowed-out firms that have failed to invest in their human capital. While the adopted model may be rational for individual firms, the systemic effect across the sector as a whole equates to a form of anorexia. However, the discourse of competitiveness is by no means monolithic and continues to be contested locally. There have also been numerous counter-discourses that have been mobilized in response to the undesirable externalities of unbridled enterprise. Currently, important counter-discourses promote the ideas of sustainability and corporate social responsibility.

Modelling requirements of supplier selection for benchmarking service provision

Supplier selection has a great impact on supply chain management. The quality of supplier selection also affects profitability of organisations which work in the supply chain. As suppliers can provide variety of services and customers demand higher quality of service provision, the organisation is facing challenges for making the right choice of supplier for the right needs. The existing methods for supplier selection, such as data envelopment analysis (DEA) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can automatically perform selection of competitive suppliers and further decide winning supplier(s). However, these methods are not capable of determining the right selection criteria which should be derived from the business strategy. An ontology model described in this paper integrates the strengths of DEA and AHP with new mechanisms which ensure the right supplier to be selected by the right criteria for the right customer's needs.