What is poverty? A diachronic exploration of the discourse on poverty from the 1970s to the 2000s

Poverty is central to the concept of development. However, the relevance given to particular aspects of poverty has changed over the years and with it the manner in which poverty has been represented. The following paper explores how concepts of poverty within the 'poverty discourse' have altered over a 30-year period. A diachronic analysis is performed to explore changes in the topical and thematic composition of the definitions, in addition to the manner in which poverty has been 'framed'. The results illustrated that poverty was variably framed across the decades ranging from a 'neutral' fact to a highly contested state with little agreement over causes and consequences. Nevertheless, the relational analysis revealed the de-problematization of poverty over time. The finding has clear implications for development praxis: poverty needs to be 'attacked', but the root causes, at least from a discursive perspective, may be ignored.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

The arbitrariness and normativity of social conventions

This paper investigates a puzzling feature of social conventions: the fact that they are both arbitrary and normative. We examine how this tension is addressed in sociological accounts of conventional phenomena. Traditional approaches tend to generate either synchronic accounts that fail to consider the arbitrariness of conventions, or diachronic accounts that miss central aspects of their normativity. As a remedy, we propose a processual conception that considers conventions as both the outcome and material cause of much human activity. This conceptualization, which borrows from the économie des conventions as well as critical realism, provides a novel perspective on how conventions are nested and defined, and on how they are established, maintained and challenged.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.