An Assessment of the Recent Past and Future Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Runoff in the Caucasus Region Using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling and HBV-ETH Hydrological Model

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt and runoff. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C a(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas providing for a strong glacier melt and continuous decline in glacier mass balance. A warming of 4-7 degrees C and 3-5 degrees C is projected for the summer months in 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios respectively, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt can be expected. The expected changes in winter precipitation will not compensate for the summer melt and glacier retreat is likely to continue. However, a projected small increase in both winter and summer precipitation combined with the enhanced glacier melt will result in increased summer runoff in the currently glaciated region of the Caucasus (independent of whether the region is glaciated at the end of the twenty-first century) by more than 50% compared with the baseline period.

Evaluation and comparison of SYBR Green I Real-Time PCR and TaqMan Real-Time PCR methods for quantitative assay of Listeria monocytogenes in nutrient broth and milk

Specific traditional plate count method and real-time PCR systems based on SYBR Green I and TaqMan technologies using a specific primer pair and probe for amplification of iap-gene were used for quantitative assay of Listeria monocytogenes in seven decimal serial dilution series of nutrient broth and milk samples containing 1.58 to 1.58×107 cfu /ml and the real-time PCR methods were compared with the plate count method with respect to accuracy and sensitivity. In this study, the plate count method was performed using surface-plating of 0.1 ml of each sample on Palcam Agar. The lowest detectable level for this method was 1.58×10 cfu/ml for both nutrient broth and milk samples. Using purified DNA as a template for generation of standard curves, as few as four copies of the iap-gene could be detected per reaction with both real-time PCR assays, indicating that they were highly sensitive. When these real-time PCR assays were applied to quantification of L. monocytogenes in decimal serial dilution series of nutrient broth and milk samples, 3.16×10 to 3.16×105 copies per reaction (equals to 1.58×103 to 1.58×107 cfu/ml L. monocytogenes) were detectable. As logarithmic cycles, for Plate Count and both molecular assays, the quantitative results of the detectable steps were similar to the inoculation levels.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Nucleolin is regulated both at the level of transcription and translation

Nucleolin is a multi-functional protein that is located to the nucleolus. In tissue Culture cells, the stability of nucleolin is related to the proliferation status of the cell. During development, rat cardiomyocytes proliferate actively with increases in the mass of the heart being due to both hyperplasia and hypertrophy. The timing of this shift in the phenotype of the myocyte from one capable of undergoing hyperplasia to one that can grow only by hypertrophy occurs within 4 days of post-natal development. Thus, cardiomyocytes are an ideal model system in which to study the regulation of nucleolin during growth in vivo. Using Western blot and quantitative RT-PCR (TaqMan) we found that the amount of nucleolin is regulated both at the level of transcription and translation during the development of the cardiomyocyte. However, in cells which had exited the cell cycle and were subsequently given a hypertrophic stimulus, nucleolin was regulated post-transcriptionally. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of novel expressed sequences, up-regulated in the leucocytes of chronic fatigue syndrome patients

BACKGROUND: Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is an increasing medical phenomenon of unknown aetiology leading to high levels of chronic morbidity. Of the many hypotheses that purport to explain this disease, immune system activation, as a central feature, has remained prominent but unsubstantiated. Supporting this, a number of important cytokines have previously been shown to be over-expressed in disease subjects. The diagnosis of CFS is highly problematic since no biological markers specific to this disease have been identified. The discovery of genes relating to this condition is an important goal in seeking to correctly categorize and understand this complex syndrome. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to screen for changes in gene expression in the lymphocytes of CFS patients. METHODS: 'Differential Display' is a method for comparing mRNA populations for the induction or suppression of genes. In this technique, mRNA populations from control and test subjects can be 'displayed' by gel electrophoresis and screened for differing banding patterns. These differences are indicative of altered gene expression between samples, and the genes that correspond to these bands can be cloned and identified. Differential display has been used to compare expression levels between four control subjects and seven CFS patients. RESULTS: Twelve short expressed sequence tags have been identified that were over-expressed in lymphocytes from CFS patients. Two of these correspond to cathepsin C and MAIL1 - genes known to be upregulated in activated lymphocytes. The expression level of seven of the differentially displayed sequences have been verified by quantifying relative level of these transcripts using TAQman quantitative PCR. CONCLUSION: Taken as a whole, the identification of novel gene tags up-regulated in CFS patients adds weight to the idea that CFS is a disease characterized by subtle changes in the immune system.

In vitro fermentation of lactulose-derived oligosaccharides by mixed fecal microbiota

Fermentation properties of oligosaccharides derived from lactulose (OsLu) and lactose (GOS) have been assessed in pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures using lactulose and Vivinal-GOS as reference carbohydrates. Changes in gut bacterial populations and their metabolic activities were monitored over 24 h by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and by measurement of short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production. Lactulose-derived oligosaccharides were selectively fermented by Bifidobacterium and lactic acid bacterial populations producing higher SCFA concentrations compared to GOS. The highest total SCFA production was from Vivinal-GOS > lactulose > OsLu > GOS. Longer incubation periods produced a selective fermentation of OsLu when they were used as a carbon source reaching the highest selective index scores. The new oligosaccharides may constitute a good alternative to lactulose, and they could belong to a new generation of prebiotics to be used as a functional ingredient for improving the composition of gut microflora.

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ‘ENSEMBLES’ project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Anti-proliferative effects of physiological concentrations of enterolactone in models of prostate tumourigenesis

SCOPE: There is evidence that a mammalian lignan, enterolactone (ENL), decreases the proliferation rate of prostate cancer cells, although previous studies have used concentrations difficult to achieve through dietary modification. We have therefore investigated the anti-proliferative effects of ENL in an in vitro model of prostate tumourigenesis at concentrations reported to occur in a range of male populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: The effects of 0.1 and 1 μM ENL on three markers of viability and proliferation (metabolic activity, growth kinetics, and cell cycle progression) were assessed in the RWPE-1, WPE1-NA22, WPE1-NB14, WPE1-NB11, WPE1-NB26, LNCaP, and PC-3 cell lines over 72 h. Based on these data, we quantified the expression levels of 12 genes involved in the control of DNA replication initiation using TaqMan real-time PCR in the WPE1-NA22, WPE1-NB14, WPE1-NB11, and WPE1-NB26 cell lines. ENL significantly inhibited the abnormal proliferation of the WPE1-NB14 and WPE1-NB11 cell lines and appears to be a consequence of decreased expression of abnormal chromatin licensing and DNA replication factor 1. CONCLUSION: In contrast to previous studies, concentrations of ENL that are reported after dietary intervention restrict the proliferation of early-stage tumourigenic prostate cell lines by inhibiting the abnormal formation of complexes that initiate DNA replication.

Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.

Long-term depression activates transcription of immediate early transcription factor genes: involvement of serum response factor/Elk-1

Long-term depression (LTD) is one of the paradigms used in vivo or ex vivo for studying memory formation. In order to identify genes with potential relevance for memory formation we used mouse organotypic hippocampal slice cultures in which chemical LTD was induced by applications of 3,5-dihydroxyphenylglycine (DHPG). The induction of chemical LTD was robust, as monitored electrophysiologically. Gene expression analysis after chemical LTD induction was performed using cDNA microarrays containing >7,000 probes. The DHPG-induced expression of immediate early genes (c-fos, junB, egr1 and nr4a1) was subsequently verified by TaqMan polymerase chain reaction. Bioinformatic analysis suggested a common regulator element [serum response factor (SRF)/Elk-1 binding sites] within the promoter region of these genes. Indeed, here we could show a DHPG-dependent binding of SRF at the SRF response element (SRE) site within the promoter region of c-fos and junB. However, SRF binding to egr1 promoter sites was constitutive. The phosphorylation of the ternary complex factor Elk-1 and its localization in the nucleus of hippocampal neurones after DHPG treatment was shown by immunofluorescence using a phosphospecific antibody. We suggest that LTD leads to SRF/Elk-1-regulated gene expression of immediate early transcription factors, which could in turn promote a second broader wave of gene expression.