Managing change in complex projects: configuration management, asset information and big data

As we enter an era of ‘big data’, asset information is becoming a deliverable of complex projects. Prior research suggests digital technologies enable rapid, flexible forms of project organizing. This research analyses practices of managing change in Airbus, CERN and Crossrail, through desk-based review, interviews, visits and a cross-case workshop. These organizations deliver complex projects, rely on digital technologies to manage large data-sets; and use configuration management, a systems engineering approach with mid-20th century origins, to establish and maintain integrity. In them, configuration management has become more, rather than less, important. Asset information is structured, with change managed through digital systems, using relatively hierarchical, asynchronous and sequential processes. The paper contributes by uncovering limits to flexibility in complex projects where integrity is important. Challenges of managing change are discussed, considering the evolving nature of configuration management; potential use of analytics on complex projects; and implications for research and practice.

Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1° to 0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Method for exploratory cluster analysis and visualisation of single-trial ERP ensembles

Background: The validity of ensemble averaging on event-related potential (ERP) data has been questioned, due to its assumption that the ERP is identical across trials. Thus, there is a need for preliminary testing for cluster structure in the data. New method: We propose a complete pipeline for the cluster analysis of ERP data. To increase the signalto-noise (SNR) ratio of the raw single-trials, we used a denoising method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Next, we used a bootstrap-based method to determine the number of clusters, through a measure called the Stability Index (SI). We then used a clustering algorithm based on a Genetic Algorithm (GA)to define initial cluster centroids for subsequent k-means clustering. Finally, we visualised the clustering results through a scheme based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Results: After validating the pipeline on simulated data, we tested it on data from two experiments – a P300 speller paradigm on a single subject and a language processing study on 25 subjects. Results revealed evidence for the existence of 6 clusters in one experimental condition from the language processing study. Further, a two-way chi-square test revealed an influence of subject on cluster membership.

The use of trajectory cluster analysis to interpret trace gas measurements at Mace Head, Ireland

A first step in interpreting the wide variation in trace gas concentrations measured over time at a given site is to classify the data according to the prevailing weather conditions. In order to classify measurements made during two intensive field campaigns at Mace Head, on the west coast of Ireland, an objective method of assigning data to different weather types has been developed. Air-mass back trajectories calculated using winds from ECMWF analyses, arriving at the site in 1995–1997, were allocated to clusters based on a statistical analysis of the latitude, longitude and pressure of the trajectory at 12 h intervals over 5 days. The robustness of the analysis was assessed by using an ensemble of back trajectories calculated for four points around Mace Head. Separate analyses were made for each of the 3 years, and for four 3-month periods. The use of these clusters in classifying ground-based ozone measurements at Mace Head is described, including the need to exclude data which have been influenced by local perturbations to the regional flow pattern, for example, by sea breezes. Even with a limited data set, based on 2 months of intensive field measurements in 1996 and 1997, there are statistically significant differences in ozone concentrations in air from the different clusters. The limitations of this type of analysis for classification and interpretation of ground-based chemistry measurements are discussed.

Multivariable cluster analysis for high-speed industrial machinery

The overall operation and internal complexity of a particular production machinery can be depicted in terms of clusters of multidimensional points which describe the process states, the value in each point dimension representing a measured variable from the machinery. The paper describes a new cluster analysis technique for use with manufacturing processes, to illustrate how machine behaviour can be categorised and how regions of good and poor machine behaviour can be identified. The cluster algorithm presented is the novel mean-tracking algorithm, capable of locating N-dimensional clusters in a large data space in which a considerable amount of noise is present. Implementation of the algorithm on a real-world high-speed machinery application is described, with clusters being formed from machinery data to indicate machinery error regions and error-free regions. This analysis is seen to provide a promising step ahead in the field of multivariable control of manufacturing systems.

Neural network basis function center selection using cluster analysis

This paper deals with the selection of centres for radial basis function (RBF) networks. A novel mean-tracking clustering algorithm is described as a way in which centers can be chosen based on a batch of collected data. A direct comparison is made between the mean-tracking algorithm and k-means clustering and it is shown how mean-tracking clustering is significantly better in terms of achieving an RBF network which performs accurate function modelling.

Cluster analysis for multivariable process control

This paper describes the novel use of cluster analysis in the field of industrial process control. The severe multivariable process problems encountered in manufacturing have often led to machine shutdowns, where the need for corrective actions arises in order to resume operation. Production faults which are caused by processes running in less efficient regions may be prevented or diagnosed using a reasoning based on cluster analysis. Indeed the intemal complexity of a production machinery may be depicted in clusters of multidimensional data points which characterise the manufacturing process. The application of a Mean-Tracking cluster algorithm (developed in Reading) to field data acquired from a high-speed machinery will be discussed. The objective of such an application is to illustrate how machine behaviour can be studied, in particular how regions of erroneous and stable running behaviour can be identified.

Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach

Boreal winter wind storm situations over Central Europe are investigated by means of an objective cluster analysis. Surface data from the NCEP-Reanalysis and ECHAM4/OPYC3-climate change GHG simulation (IS92a) are considered. To achieve an optimum separation of clusters of extreme storm conditions, 55 clusters of weather patterns are differentiated. To reduce the computational effort, a PCA is initially performed, leading to a data reduction of about 98 %. The clustering itself was computed on 3-day periods constructed with the first six PCs using "k-means" clustering algorithm. The applied method enables an evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic developments. The climate change signal is constructed by a projection of the GCM simulation on the EOFs attained from the NCEP-Reanalysis. Consequently, the same clusters are obtained and frequency distributions can be compared. For Central Europe, four primary storm clusters are identified. These clusters feature almost 72 % of the historical extreme storms events and add only to 5 % of the total relative frequency. Moreover, they show a statistically significant signature in the associated wind fields over Europe. An increased frequency of Central European storm clusters is detected with enhanced GHG conditions, associated with an enhancement of the pressure gradient over Central Europe. Consequently, more intense wind events over Central Europe are expected. The presented algorithm will be highly valuable for the analysis of huge data amounts as is required for e.g. multi-model ensemble analysis, particularly because of the enormous data reduction.

Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone

Flow in geophysical fluids is commonly summarized by coherent streams, for example conveyor belt flows in extratropical cyclones or jet streaks in the upper troposphere. Typically, parcel trajectories are calculated from the flow field and subjective thresholds are used to distinguish coherent streams of interest. This methodology contribution develops a more objective approach to distinguish coherent airstreams within extratropical cyclones. Agglomerative clustering is applied to trajectories along with a method to identify the optimal number of cluster classes. The methodology is applied to trajectories associated with the low-level jets of a well-studied extratropical cyclone. For computational efficiency, a constraint that trajectories must pass through these jet regions is applied prior to clustering; the partitioning into different airstreams is then performed by the agglomerative clustering. It is demonstrated that the methodology can identify the salient flow structures of cyclones: the warm and cold conveyor belts. A test focusing on the airstreams terminating at the tip of the bent-back front further demonstrates the success of the method in that it can distinguish fine-scale flow structure such as descending sting jet airstreams.

Pragmatic oriented data interoperability for smart healthcare information systems

Smart healthcare is a complex domain for systems integration due to human and technical factors and heterogeneous data sources involved. As a part of smart city, it is such a complex area where clinical functions require smartness of multi-systems collaborations for effective communications among departments, and radiology is one of the areas highly relies on intelligent information integration and communication. Therefore, it faces many challenges regarding integration and its interoperability such as information collision, heterogeneous data sources, policy obstacles, and procedure mismanagement. The purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of data, semantic, and pragmatic interoperability of systems integration in radiology department, and to develop a pragmatic interoperability framework for guiding the integration. We select an on-going project at a local hospital for undertaking our case study. The project is to achieve data sharing and interoperability among Radiology Information Systems (RIS), Electronic Patient Record (EPR), and Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS). Qualitative data collection and analysis methods are used. The data sources consisted of documentation including publications and internal working papers, one year of non-participant observations and 37 interviews with radiologists, clinicians, directors of IT services, referring clinicians, radiographers, receptionists and secretary. We identified four primary phases of data analysis process for the case study: requirements and barriers identification, integration approach, interoperability measurements, and knowledge foundations. Each phase is discussed and supported by qualitative data. Through the analysis we also develop a pragmatic interoperability framework that summaries the empirical findings and proposes recommendations for guiding the integration in the radiology context.

Determining feature relevance for the grouping of motor unit action potentials through generative topographic mapping

The study of motor unit action potential (MUAP) activity from electrornyographic signals is an important stage on neurological investigations that aim to understand the state of the neuromuscular system. In this context, the identification and clustering of MUAPs that exhibit common characteristics, and the assessment of which data features are most relevant for the definition of such cluster structure are central issues. In this paper, we propose the application of an unsupervised Feature Relevance Determination (FRD) method to the analysis of experimental MUAPs obtained from healthy human subjects. In contrast to approaches that require the knowledge of a priori information from the data, this FRD method is embedded on a constrained mixture model, known as Generative Topographic Mapping, which simultaneously performs clustering and visualization of MUAPs. The experimental results of the analysis of a data set consisting of MUAPs measured from the surface of the First Dorsal Interosseous, a hand muscle, indicate that the MUAP features corresponding to the hyperpolarization period in the physisiological process of generation of muscle fibre action potentials are consistently estimated as the most relevant and, therefore, as those that should be paid preferential attention for the interpretation of the MUAP groupings.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.