Anticoagulant resistance in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Kent - a VKORC1 single nucleotide polymorphism, tyrosine139phenylalanine, new to the UK

A sample of 10 Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) was taken for DNA resistance testing from an agricultural site in Kent where applications of the anticoagulant rodenticide bromadiolone had been unsuccessful. All animals tested were homozygous for the single nucleotide VKORC1 polymorphism tyrosine139phenylalanine, or Y139F. This is a common resistance mutation found extensively in France and Belgium but not previously in the UK. Y139F confers a significant level of resistance to first-generation anticoagulants, such as chlorophacinone, and to the second-generation compound bromadiolone. Another compound widely used in the UK, difenacoum, is also thought to be partially resisted by rats which carry Y139F. A silent VKORC1 mutation was also found in all rats tested. The presence of a third important VKORC1 mutation which confers resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides in widespread use in the UK, the others being Y139C and L120Q, further threatens the ability of pest control practitioners to deliver effective rodent control.

Flavanol monomer-induced changes to the human faecal microflora

We have investigated the bacterial-dependent metabolism of (-)-epicatechin and (+)-catechin using a pH-controlled, stirred, batch-culture fermentation system reflective of the distal region of the human large intestine. Incubation of (-)-epicatechin or (+)-catechin (150mg/l or 1000mg/l) with faecal bacteria, led to the generation of 5-(3,4'-dihydroxyphenyl)-gamma-valerolactone, 5-phenyl-gamma-valerolactone and phenylpropionic acid. However, the formation of these metabolites from (+)-catechin required its initial conversion to (+)-epicatechin. The metabolism of both flavanols occurred in the presence of favourable carbon sources, notably sucrose and the prebiotic fructo-oligosaccharides, indicating that bacterial utilisation of flavanols also occurs when preferential energy sources are available. (+)-Catechin incubation affected the growth of select microflora, resulting in a statistically significant increase in the growth of the Clostridium coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group, Bifidobacterium spp. and Escherichia coli, as well as a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of the C. histolyticum group. In contrast, the effect of (-)-epicatechin was less profound, only significantly increasing the growth of the C. coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group. These potential prebiotic effects for both (+)-catechin and (-)-epicatechin were most notable at the lower concentration of 150 mg/l. As both (-)-epicatechin and (+)-catechin were converted to the same metabolites, the more dramatic change in the growth of distinct microfloral populations produced by (+)-catechin incubation may be linked to the bacterial conversion of (+)-catechin to (+)-epicatechin. Together these data suggest that the consumption of flavanol-rich foods may support gut health through their ability to exert prebiotic actions.

Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

An evaluation of the performance of UK real estate forecasters

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Type specimens of G.E. Post in Beirut and The Natural History Museum, London

The Flora of Syria, Palestine and Sinai, a pioneer Flora of the region, was published in 1896 by George Edward Post (1838–1909). Lesser known are his series of Diagnoses plantarum novarum orientalium, published in the Journal of the Linnean Society Botany, and 10 papers, Plantae Postianae, which appeared in Swiss journals from 1890 to 1900. A greatly expanded second edition of the Flora was prepared by John Edward Dinsmore and published in Beirut in 1932 and 1933. Post's plant collection is part of the Post Herbarium (BEI), with about 63 000 specimens, that has been well maintained, despite civil war and inadequate staffing. This work involves the identification of around 150 types in BEI and BM, and improvement of the accessibility of the specimens. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159, 315–321.