Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clinical trial: the effects of a trans-galactooligosaccharide prebiotic on faecal microbiota and symptoms in irritable bowel syndrome

Gut microflora-mucosal interactions may be involved in the pathogenesis of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). To investigate the efficacy of a novel prebiotic trans-galactooligosaccharide in changing the colonic microflora and improve the symptoms in IBS sufferers. In all, 44 patients with Rome II positive IBS completed a 12-week single centre parallel crossover controlled clinical trial. Patients were randomized to receive either 3.5 g/d prebiotic, 7 g/d prebiotic or 7 g/d placebo. IBS symptoms were monitored weekly and scored according to a 7-point Likert scale. Changes in faecal microflora, stool frequency and form (Bristol stool scale) subjective global assessment (SGA), anxiety and depression and QOL scores were also monitored. The prebiotic significantly enhanced faecal bifidobacteria (3.5 g/d P < 0.005; 7 g/d P < 0.001). Placebo was without effect on the clinical parameters monitored, while the prebiotic at 3.5 g/d significantly changed stool consistency (P < 0.05), improved flatulence (P < 0.05) bloating (P < 0.05), composite score of symptoms (P < 0.05) and SGA (P < 0.05). The prebiotic at 7 g/d significantly improved SGA (P < 0.05) and anxiety scores (P < 0.05). The galactooligosaccharide acted as a prebiotic in specifically stimulating gut bifidobacteria in IBS patients and is effective in alleviating symptoms. These findings suggest that the prebiotic has potential as a therapeutic agent in IBS.

A randomised clinical trial to assess the effect of total enteral and total parenteral nutritional support on metabolic, inflammatory and oxidative markers in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II >= 66)

Background: Total enteral nutrition (TEN) within 48 h of admission has recently been shown to be safe and efficacious as part of the management of severe acute pancreatitis. Our aim was to ascertain the safety of immediate TEN in these patients and the effect of TEN on systemic inflammation, psychological state, oxidative stress, plasma glutamine levels and endotoxaemia. Methods: Patients admitted with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II score 15) were randomised to total enteral (TEN; n = 8) or total parenteral nutrition (TPN; n = 9). Measurements of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein), fatigue ( visual analogue scale), oxidative stress ( plasma thiobarbituric acid- reactive substances), plasma glutamine and anti-endotoxin IgG and IgM antibody concentrations were made on admission and repeated on days 3 and 7 thereafter. Clinical progress was monitored using APACHE II score. Organ failure and complications were recorded. Results: All patients tolerated the feeding regime well with few nutrition-related complications. Fatigue improved in both groups but more rapidly in the TEN group. Oxidative stress was high on admission and rose by similar amounts in both groups. Plasma glutamine concentrations did not change significantly in either group. In the TPN group, 3 patients developed respiratory failure and 3 developed non-respiratory single organ failure. There were no such complications in the TEN group. Hospital stay was shorter in the TEN group [ 7 (4-14) vs. 10 (7-26) days; p = 0.05] as was time to passing flatus and time to opening bowels [1 (0-2) vs. 2 (1-5) days; p = 0.01]. The cost of TEN was considerably less than of TPN. Conclusion: Immediate institution of nutritional support in the form of TEN is safe in predicted severe acute pancreatitis. It is as safe and as efficacious as TPN and may be beneficial in the clinical course of this disease. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP.

Are clinical documents optimised for patient safety? A critical analysis of patient safety outcomes using the EDA error model

Iatrogenic errors and patient safety in clinical processes are an increasing concern. The quality of process information in hardcopy or electronic form can heavily influence clinical behaviour and decision making errors. Little work has been undertaken to assess the safety impact of clinical process planning documents guiding the clinical actions and decisions. This paper investigates the clinical process documents used in elective surgery and their impact on latent and active clinical errors. Eight clinicians from a large health trust underwent extensive semi- structured interviews to understand their use of clinical documents, and their perceived impact on errors and patient safety. Samples of the key types of document used were analysed. Theories of latent organisational and active errors from the literature were combined with the EDA semiotics model of behaviour and decision making to propose the EDA Error Model. This model enabled us to identify perceptual, evaluation, knowledge and action error types and approaches to reducing their causes. The EDA error model was then used to analyse sample documents and identify error sources and controls. Types of knowledge artefact structures used in the documents were identified and assessed in terms of safety impact. This approach was combined with analysis of the questionnaire findings using existing error knowledge from the literature. The results identified a number of document and knowledge artefact issues that give rise to latent and active errors and also issues concerning medical culture and teamwork together with recommendations for further work.