Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading

The Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology (BABAO) held at the University of Reading in 2007. Contents: 1) A life course perspective of growing up in medieval London: evidence of sub-adult health from St Mary Spital (London) (Rebecca Redfern and Don Walker); 2) Preservation of non-adult long bones from an almshouse cemetery in the United States dating to the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries (Colleen Milligan, Jessica Zotcavage and Norman Sullivan); 3) Childhood oral health: dental palaeopathology of Kellis 2, Dakhleh, Egypt. A preliminary investigation (Stephanie Shukrum and JE Molto); 4) Skeletal manifestation of non-adult scurvy from early medieval Northumbria: the Black Gate cemetery, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Diana Mahoney-Swales and Pia Nystrom); 5) Infantile cortical hyperostosis: cases, causes and contradictions (Mary Lewis and Rebecca Gowland); 6) Biological Anthropology Tuberculosis of the hip in the Victorian Britain (Benjamin Clarke and Piers Mitchell); 7) The re-analysis of Iron Age human skeletal material from Winnall Down (Justine Tracey); 8) Can we estimate post-mortem interval from an individual body part? A field study using sus scrofa (Branka Franicevec and Robert Pastor); 9) The expression of asymmetry in hand bones from the medieval cemetery at Écija, Spain (Lisa Cashmore and Sonia Zakrezewski); 10) Returning remains: a curator’s view (Quinton Carroll); 11) Authority and decision making over British human remains: issues and challenges (Piotr Bienkowski and Malcolm Chapman); 12) Ethical dimensions of reburial, retention and repatriation of archaeological human remains: a British perspective (Simon Mays and Martin Smith); 13) The problem of provenace: inaccuracies, changes and misconceptions (Margaret Clegg); 14) Native American human remains in UK collections: implications of NAGPRA to consultation, repatriation, and policy development (Myra J Giesen); 15) Repatriation – a view from the receiving end: New Zealand (Nancy Tayles).

Determination of the impact of continuous defoliation of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens on bacterial and fungal community structure in rhizosphere soil

To determine the effects of defoliation on microbial community structure, rhizosphere soil samples were taken pre-, and post-defoliation from the root tip and mature root regions of Trifolium repens L. and Lolium perenne L. Microbial DNA isolated from samples was used to generate polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis molecular profiles of bacterial and fungal communities. Bacterial plate counts were also obtained. Neither plant species nor defoliation affected the bacterial and fungal community structures in both the root tip and mature root regions, but there were significant differences in the bacterial and fungal community profiles between the two root regions for each plant. Prior to defoliation, there was no difference between plants for bacterial plate counts of soils from the root tip regions; however, counts were greater in the mature root region of L. perenne than T. repens. Bacterial plate counts for T. repens were higher in the root tip than the mature root region. After defoliation, there was no effect of plant type, position along the root or defoliation status on bacterial plate counts, although there were significant increases in bacterial plate counts with time. The results indicate that a general effect existed during maturation in the root regions of each plant, which had a greater impact on microbial community structure than either plant type or the effect of defoliation. In addition there were no generic consequences with regard to microbial populations in the rhizosphere as a response to plant defoliation.

The European Declarative System, Database, and Languages

The EP2025 EDS project develops a highly parallel information server that supports established high-value interfaces. We describe the motivation for the project, the architecture of the system, and the design and application of its database and language subsystems. The Elipsys logic programming language, its advanced applications, EDS Lisp, and the Metal machine translation system are examined.

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour, size and recruitment in a wild bird

Indirect and direct models of sexual selection make different predictions regarding the quantitative genetic relationships between sexual ornaments and fitness. Indirect models predict that ornaments should have a high heritability and that strong positive genetic covariance should exist between fitness and the ornament. Direct models, on the other hand, make no such assumptions about the level of genetic variance in fitness and the ornament, and are therefore likely to be more important when environmental sources of variation are large. Here we test these predictions in a wild population of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus), a species in which plumage coloration has been shown to be under sexual selection. Using 3 years of cross-fostering data from over 250 breeding attempts, we partition the covariance between parental coloration and aspects of nestling fitness into a genetic and environmental component. Contrary to indirect models of sexual selection, but in agreement with direct models, we show that variation in coloration is only weakly heritable (h(2) < 0.11), and that two components of offspring fitness-nestling size and fledgling recruitment-are strongly dependent on parental effects, rather than genetic effects. Furthermore, there was no evidence of significant positive genetic covariation between parental colour and offspring traits. Contrary to direct benefit models, however, we find little evidence that variation in colour reliably indicates the level of parental care provided by either males or females. Taken together, these results indicate that the assumptions of indirect models of sexual selection are not supported by the genetic basis of the traits reported on here.

Pre-B-cell transcription factor 1 and steroidogenic factor 1 synergistically regulate adrenocortical growth and steroidogenesis

variety of transcription factors including Wilms tumor gene (Wt-1), steroidogenic factor 1 (Sf-1), dosage-sensitive sex reversal, adrenal hypoplasia congenita on the X-chromosome, Gene 1 (Dax-1), and pre-B-cell transcription factor 1 (Pbx1) have been defined as necessary for regular adrenocortical development. However, the role of Pbx1 for adrenal growth and function in the adult organism together with the molecular relationship between Pbx1 and these other transcription factors have not been characterized. We demonstrate that Pbx haploinsufficiency (Pbx1(+/-)) in mice is accompanied by a significant lower adrenal weight in adult animals compared with wild-type controls. Accordingly, baseline proliferating cell nuclear antigen levels are lower in Pbx1(+/-) mice, and unilateral adrenalectomy results in impaired contralateral compensatory adrenal growth, indicating a lower proliferative potential in the context of Pbx1 haploinsufficiency. In accordance with the key role of IGFs in adrenocortical proliferation and development, real-time RT-PCR demonstrates significant lower expression levels of the IGF-I receptor, and up-regulation of IGF binding protein-2. Functionally, Pbx1(+/-) mice display a blunted corticosterone response after ACTH stimulation coincident with lower adrenal expression of the ACTH receptor (melanocortin 2 receptor, Mc2-r). Mechanistically, in vitro studies reveal that Pbx1 and Sf-1 synergistically stimulates Mc2-r promoter activity. Moreover, Sf-1 directly activates the Pbx1 promoter activity in vitro and in vivo. Taken together, these studies provide evidence for a role of Pbx1 in the maintenance of a functional adrenal cortex mediated by synergistic actions of Pbx1 and Sf-1 in the transcriptional regulation of the critical effector of adrenocortical differentiation, the ACTH receptor.

The adrenal secretory serine protease AsP is a short secretory isoform of the transmembrane airway trypsin-like protease

To further elucidate the role of proteases capable of cleaving N-terminal proopiomelanocortin (N-POMC)-derived peptides, we have cloned two cDNAs encoding isoforms of the airway trypsin-like protease (AT) from mouse (MAT) and rat ( RAT), respectively. The open reading frames comprise 417 amino acids (aa) and 279 aa. The mouse AT gene was located at chromosome 5E1 and contains 10 exons. The longer isoform, which we designated MAT1 and RAT1, has a simple type II transmembrane protein structure, consisting of a short cytoplasmic domain, a transmembrane domain, a SEA (63-kDa sea urchin sperm protein, enteropeptidase, agrin) module, and a serine protease domain. The human homolog of MAT1 and RAT1 is the human AT ( HAT). The shorter isoform, designated MAT2 and RAT2, which contains an alternative N terminus, was formerly described in the rat as adrenal secretory serine protease (AsP) and has been shown to be involved in the processing of N-POMC-derived peptides. In contrast to the long isoform, neither MAT2 and RAT2 ( AsP) contain a transmembrane domain nor a SEA domain but an N-terminal signal peptide to direct the enzyme to the secretory pathway. The C terminus, covering the catalytic triad, is identical in both isoforms. Immunohistochemically, MAT/RAT was predominantly expressed in tissues of the upper gastrointestinal and the respiratory tract - but also in the adrenal gland. Moreover, isoform-specific RT-PCR and quantitative PCR analysis revealed a complex expression pattern of the two isoforms with differences between mice and rats. These findings indicate a multifunctional role of these proteases beyond adrenal proliferation.

Epitaxial growth of ultrathin palladium films on Re{0001}

Ultrathin bimetallic layers create unusual magnetic and surface chemical effects through the modification of electronic structure brought on by low dimensionality, polymorphism, reduced screening, and epitaxial strain. Previous studies have related valence and core-level shifts to surface reactivity through the d-band model of Hammer and Nørskov, and in heteroepitaxial films this band position is determined by competing effects of coordination, strain, and hybridization of substrate and overlayer states. In this study we employ the epitaxially matched Pd on Re{0001} system to grow films with no lateral strain. We use a recent advancement in low-energy electron diffraction to expand the data range sufficiently for a reliable determination of the growth sequence and out-of-plane surface relaxation as a function of film thickness. The results are supported by scanning tunneling microscopy and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy, which show that the growth is layer-by-layer with significant core-level shifts due to changes in film structure, morphology, and bonding.

Fast regridding of large, complex geospatial datasets

In the earth sciences, data are commonly cast on complex grids in order to model irregular domains such as coastlines, or to evenly distribute grid points over the globe. It is common for a scientist to wish to re-cast such data onto a grid that is more amenable to manipulation, visualization, or comparison with other data sources. The complexity of the grids presents a significant technical difficulty to the regridding process. In particular, the regridding of complex grids may suffer from severe performance issues, in the worst case scaling with the product of the sizes of the source and destination grids. We present a mechanism for the fast regridding of such datasets, based upon the construction of a spatial index that allows fast searching of the source grid. We discover that the most efficient spatial index under test (in terms of memory usage and query time) is a simple look-up table. A kd-tree implementation was found to be faster to build and to give similar query performance at the expense of a larger memory footprint. Using our approach, we demonstrate that regridding of complex data may proceed at speeds sufficient to permit regridding on-the-fly in an interactive visualization application, or in a Web Map Service implementation. For large datasets with complex grids the new mechanism is shown to significantly outperform algorithms used in many scientific visualization packages.