Bayesian clustering of farm types using the mixtures model

A Bayesian method of classifying observations that are assumed to come from a number of distinct subpopulations is outlined. The method is illustrated with simulated data and applied to the classification of farms according to their level and variability of income. The resultant classification shows a greater diversity of technical charactersitics within farm types than is conventionally the case. The range of mean farm income between groups in the new classification is wider than that of the conventional method and the variability of income within groups is narrower. Results show that the highest income group in 2000 included large specialist dairy farmers and pig and poultry producers, whilst in 2001 it included large and small specialist dairy farms and large mixed dairy and arable farms. In both years the lowest income group is dominated by non-milk producing livestock farms.

The population genetic structure of clonal organisms generated by exponentially bounded and fat-tailed dispersal

Long distance dispersal (LDD) plays an important role in many population processes like colonization, range expansion, and epidemics. LDD of small particles like fungal spores is often a result of turbulent wind dispersal and is best described by functions with power-law behavior in the tails ("fat tailed"). The influence of fat-tailed LDD on population genetic structure is reported in this article. In computer simulations, the population structure generated by power-law dispersal with exponents in the range of -2 to -1, in distinct contrast to that generated by exponential dispersal, has a fractal structure. As the power-law exponent becomes smaller, the distribution of individual genotypes becomes more self-similar at different scales. Common statistics like G(ST) are not well suited to summarizing differences between the population genetic structures. Instead, fractal and self-similarity statistics demonstrated differences in structure arising from fat-tailed and exponential dispersal. When dispersal is fat tailed, a log-log plot of the Simpson index against distance between subpopulations has an approximately constant gradient over a large range of spatial scales. The fractal dimension D-2 is linearly inversely related to the power-law exponent, with a slope of similar to -2. In a large simulation arena, fat-tailed LDD allows colonization of the entire space by all genotypes whereas exponentially bounded dispersal eventually confines all descendants of a single clonal lineage to a relatively small area.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Population subdivision and molecular sequence variation: Theory and analysis of Drosophila ananassae data

Population subdivision complicates analysis of molecular variation. Even if neutrality is assumed, three evolutionary forces need to be considered: migration, mutation, and drift. Simplification can be achieved by assuming that the process of migration among and drift within subpopulations is occurring fast compared to Mutation and drift in the entire population. This allows a two-step approach in the analysis: (i) analysis of population subdivision and (ii) analysis of molecular variation in the migrant pool. We model population subdivision using an infinite island model, where we allow the migration/drift parameter Theta to vary among populations. Thus, central and peripheral populations can be differentiated. For inference of Theta, we use a coalescence approach, implemented via a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration method that allows estimation of allele frequencies in the migrant pool. The second step of this approach (analysis of molecular variation in the migrant pool) uses the estimated allele frequencies in the migrant pool for the study of molecular variation. We apply this method to a Drosophila ananassae sequence data set. We find little indication of isolation by distance, but large differences in the migration parameter among populations. The population as a whole seems to be expanding. A population from Bogor (Java, Indonesia) shows the highest variation and seems closest to the species center.

Effects of cis-9,trans-11 and trans-1 0,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on immune cell function in healthy humans

Background: Animal studies have suggested that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a natural component of ruminant meat and dairy products, may confer beneficial effects on health. However, little information on the effects of CLA on immune function is available, especially in humans. Furthermore, the effects of individual isomers of CLA have not been adequately investigated. Objective: This study investigated the effects of supplementing the diet with 3 doses of highly enriched cis-9,trans-11 CLA (0.59, 1.19, and 2.38 g/d) or trans-10,cis-12 CLA (0.63, 1.26, and 2.52 g/d) on immune outcomes in healthy humans. Design: The study had a randomized, double-blind, crossover design. Healthy men consumed 1, 2, and 4 capsules sequentially that contained 80% of either cis-9,trans-11 CLA or trans-10,cis-12 CLA for consecutive 8-wk periods. This regimen was followed by a 6-wk washout and a crossover to the other isomer. Results: Both CLA isomers decreased mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation in a dose-dependent manner. There was a significant negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the proportions of both cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA in peripheral blood mononuclear cell lipids. However, CLA did not affect lymphocyte subpopulations or serum concentrations of C-reactive protein and did not have any consistent effects on ex vivo cytokine production. Conclusion: CLA supplementation results in a dose-dependent reduction in the mitogen-induced activation of T lymphocytes. The effects of cis-9,trans-l I CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA were similar, and there was a negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA contents of mononuclear cells.

Are definitions of adiposity appropriate for identification of cardiovascular disease risk in South Asian populations?

South Asian populations living in the UK have a high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes which impacts greatly on the morbidity and mortality of this ethnic group. The identification of ‘at risk’ individuals is essential to initiate reventative treatment. However, this is considerably hindered by the lack of appropriate cut-off values for anthropometric measures. CVD risk is significantly higher at a lower body mass index (BMI) in many Asian groups compared with Caucasians and adiposity (particularly central deposition) is higher at similar BMI levels. The definition of adiposity in Asians needs to be firmly established and appropriate lower BMI and waist circumference cut-offs implemented in ethnic subpopulations to facilitate appropriate treatment strategies.

Long-distance dispersal and its influence on adaptation to host resistance in a heterogeneous landscape

Small propagules like pollen or fungal spores may be dispersed by the wind over distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometres,even though the median dispersal may be only a few metres. Such long-distance dispersal is a stochastic event which may be exceptionally important in shaping a population. It has been found repeatedly in field studies that subpopulations of wind-dispersed fungal pathogens virulent on cultivars with newly introduced, effective resistance genes are dominated by one or very few genotypes. The role of propagule dispersal distributions with distinct behaviour at long distances in generating this characteristic population structure was studied by computer simulation of dispersal of clonal organisms in a heterogeneous environment with fields of unselective and selective hosts. Power-law distributions generated founder events in which new, virulent genotypes rapidly colonized fields of resistant crop varieties and subsequently dominated the pathogen population on both selective and unselective varieties, in agreement with data on rust and powdery mildew fungi. An exponential dispersal function, with extremely rare dispersal over long distances, resulted in slower colonization of resistant varieties by virulent pathogens or even no colonization if the distance between susceptible source and resistant target fields was sufficiently large. The founder events resulting from long-distance dispersal were highly stochastic and exact quantitative prediction of genotype frequencies will therefore always be difficult.

Wolbachia infection and dramatic intraspecific mitochondrial dna divergence in a fig wasp

Mitochondria and Wolbachia are maternally inherited genomes that exhibit strong linkage disequilibrium in many organisms. We surveyed Wolbachia infections in 187 specimens of the fig wasp species, Ceratosolen solmsi, and found an infection prevalence of 89.3%. DNA sequencing of 20 individuals each from Wolbachia-infected and -uninfected subpopulations revealed extreme mtDNA divergence (up to 9.2% and 15.3% in CO1 and cytochrome b, respectively) between infected and uninfected wasps. Further, mtDNA diversity was significantly reduced within the infected group. Our sequencing of a large part of the mitochondrial genome from both Wolbachia-infected and -uninfected individuals revealed that high sequence divergence is common throughout the mitochondrial genome. These patterns suggest a partial selective sweep of mitochondria subsequent to the introduction of Wolbachia into C. solsmi, by hybrid introgression from a related species.

High density lipoproteins (HDLs) and atherosclerosis; the unanswered questions

The concentration of high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) has been found consistently to be a powerful negative predictor of premature coronary heart disease (CHD) in human prospective population studies. There is also circumstantial evidence from human intervention studies and direct evidence from animal intervention studies that HDLs protect against the development of atherosclerosis. HDLs have several documented functions, although the precise mechanism by which they prevent atherosclerosis remains uncertain. Nor is it known whether the cardioprotective properties of HDL are specific to one or more of the many HDL subpopulations that comprise the HDL fraction in human plasma. Several lifestyle and pharmacological interventions have the capacity to raise the level of HDL-C, although it is not known whether all are equally protective. Indeed, despite the large body of information identifying HDLs as potential therapeutic targets for the prevention of atherosclerosis, there remain many unanswered questions that must be addressed as a matter of urgency before embarking wholesale on HDL-C-raising therapies as strategies to prevent CHD. This review summarises what is known and highlights what we still need to know.

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

Relationships Among Murine CD11chigh Dendritic Cell Subsets as Revealed by Baseline Gene Expression Patterns

The functional relationships and properties of different subtypes of dendritic cells (DC) remain largely undefined. To better characterize these cells, we used global gene analysis to determine gene expression patterns among murine CD11c(high) DC subsets. CD4(+), CD8alpha(+), and CD8alpha(-) CD4(-) (double negative (DN)) DC were purified from spleens of normal C57/BL6 mice and analyzed using Affymetrix microarrays. The CD4(+) and CD8alpha(+) DC subsets showed distinct basal expression profiles differing by >200 individual genes. These included known DC subset markers as well as previously unrecognized, differentially expressed CD Ags such as CD1d, CD5, CD22, and CD72. Flow cytometric analysis confirmed differential expression in nine of nine cases, thereby validating the microarray analysis. Interestingly, the microarray expression profiles for DN cells strongly resembled those of CD4(+) DC, differing from them by <25 genes. This suggests that CD4(+) and DN DC are closely related phylogenetically, whereas CD8alpha(+) DC represent a more distant lineage, supporting the historical distinction between CD8alpha(+) and CD8alpha(-) DC. However, staining patterns revealed that in contrast to CD4(+) DC, the DN subset is heterogeneous and comprises at least two subpopulations. Gene Ontology and literature mining analyses of genes expressed differentially among DC subsets indicated strong associations with immune response parameters as well as cell differentiation and signaling. Such associations offer clues to possible unique functions of the CD11c(high) DC subsets that to date have been difficult to define as rigid distinctions.