Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Libraries and literature in Rome

A chapter of 6,000 words on books, literary culture, and public and private libraries in the ancient city of Rome

Seed survival in Chilean Nothofagus in response to desiccation and storage

Nothofagus alpina, N. obliqua, N. glauca, N. leonii, N. dombeyi and N. pumilio seeds exhibited consistent, albeit slight, sensitivity to extreme desiccation, but nevertheless maintained viability at low moisture contents and cool temperatures (-10 degrees to -20 degrees C) over 2 years. Nothofagus alpina, N. obliqua, N. glauca, N. leonii and N. dombeyi conformed to the seed viability equation of Ellis and Roberts; sensitivity of longevity to temperature was quantitatively similar to that of crop seeds, sensitivity to moisture was somewhat less, and a low-moisture-content limit to the equation was detected at 4.8% moisture content in hermetic storage at 65 degrees C, and possibly similar moisture contents at 30-40 degrees C. These five species show orthodox seed storage behaviour. Therefore, ex-situ conservation of these Nothofagus species in seed banks is possible, but the quality of seed lots collected requires attention. Seed storage behaviour was not defined in N. pumilio: initial seed quality was poor and loss of viability was detected over 2 years at 0 degrees, -10 degrees and -20 degrees C at 2.7% moisture content, but not at 5.2%. The results confirm that the economy of nature in seed storage physiology extends to forest tree seeds, but the repeated observation of reduced sensitivity of longevity to moisture in forest tree seeds requires further investigation.

Genetic variation in a chilean endangered endemic: Gomortega keule (Molina) Baillon

Gomortega keule (Molina) Baillon is an endangered, rare species, the only representative of its genus, and endemic to Central Chile. Populations of this tree are now fragmented and few individuals can be found in any of them. Genetic diversity was studied in 33 individuals from three populations in Cauquenes, a coastal mountain area (35°58'S-72°41'W). Fifteen InterSimple Sequence Repeat primers were used to determine the degree of similarity between and within populations. This revealed that 30% of the variation exhibited was between populations while 70% was within; nevertheless individuals were clearly clustered in a pattern which reflected a narrow base of diversity. Three other species from the Laurales order were used in order to provide an external reference as to the degree of diversity. In addition, an external wild population from the native species, Peumus boldus, was used to verify the utility of the markers. We show that the primers are effective in quickly giving an estimate of the degree of diversity of a population, thus giving important topical information relevant to preserving endangered species. Aspects of the conservation and management policy for the species in order to maintain the remaining populations and to preserve the genetic resources are discussed.