Display, disclosure and concealment: the organization of raw materials in the chambered tombs of Bohuslän

The Neolithic chambered tombs of Bohuslan on the west coast of Sweden were built out of locally occurring raw materials. These exhibit a wide variety of colours, textures and mineral inclusions, and all were used to contrive a series of striking visual effects. Certain of these would have been apparent to the casual observer but others would only have been apparent to someone inside the passage or the burial chamber. There is no evidence that the materials were organized according to a single scheme. Rather, they permitted a series of improvisations, so that no two monuments were exactly alike. The effects that they created are compared with those found in megalithic art where the design elements were painted or carved, but in Bohuslan all the designs were created using the natural properties of the rock.

The Spanish Ambassador and Samuel Daniel's Vision of the Twelve Goddesses: A New Document [with text]

The performance of Samuel Daniel's masque The Vision of the Twelve Goddesses at court on January 8, 1604 took place in the midst of the preliminary negotiations that would lead to the signing of the Anglo-Spanish peace at Somerset House the following August. Philip III sent a special ambassador to England to congratulate James on his accession, and a series of tussles between Juan de Tassis and his French counterpart ensued. As a recently-discovered document in the Archivo General de Simancas reveals, Anna of Denmark intervened personally to insure that de Tassis, and not the Frenchman, attended the masque. This was a clear signal of James and Anna's peace aims, which de Tassis conveyed to the King of Spain; moreover, he enclosed in his dispatch a text of Daniel's masque which he clearly considered both political intelligence and of interest to the theater-loving Hapsburg monarch. The Simancas text of the Daniel masque is a new version, hitherto unknown, which adds to our knowledge of the circumstances in which the first Stuart masque was performed. Here we present a transcription and annotated translation of both de Tassis' letter and the text of the masque he had compiled for Philip III. (B. C.-E. and M. H.)

The accuracy of valuations: expectation and reality

The relationship between valuations and the subsequent sale price continues to be a matter of both theoretical and practical interest. This paper reports the analysis of over 700 property sales made during the 1974/90 period. Initial results imply an average under-valuation of 7% and a standard error of 18% across the sample. A number of techniques are applied to the data set using other variables such as the region, the type of property and the return from the market to explain the difference between the valuation and the subsequent sale price. The analysis reduces the unexplained error; the bias is fully accounted for and the standard error is reduced to 15.3%. This model finds that about 6% of valuations over-estimated the sale price by more than 20% and about 9% of the valuations under-estimated the sale prices by more than 20%. The results suggest that valuations are marginally more accurate than might be expected, both from consideration of theoretical considerations and from comparison with the equivalent valuation in equity markets.

Euthydemoss of Bactria

Euthydemos I (ca. 260–200 bce) was king of Bactria from around 230. He founded a dynasty which, most notably under his son Demetrios I, extended the control of the Greco-Bactrian kings south of the Hindu Kush into Arachosia and India.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden.

This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.