Behaviour change in the UK climate debate : an assessment of responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This paper explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the paper reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The paper concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

Pediastrum species as potential indicators of lake-level change in tropical South America

We explored the potential for using Pediastrum (Meyen), a genus of green alga commonly found in palaeoecological studies, as a proxy for lake-level change in tropical South America. The study site, Laguna La Gaiba (LLG) (17°45′S, 57°40′W), is a broad, shallow lake located along the course of the Paraguay River in the Pantanal, a 135,000-km2 tropical wetland located mostly in western Brazil, but extending into eastern Bolivia. Fourteen surface sediment samples were taken from LLG across a range of lake depths (2-5.2 m) and analyzed for Pediastrum. We found seven species, of which P. musteri (Tell et Mataloni), P. argentiniense (Bourr. et Tell), and P. cf. angulosum (Ehrenb.) ex Menegh. were identified as potential indicators of lake level. Results of the modern dataset were applied to 31 fossil Pediastrum assemblages spanning the early Holocene (12.0 kyr BP) to present to infer past lake level changes qualitatively. Early Holocene (12.0-9.8 kyr BP) assemblages do not show a clear signal, though abundance of P. simplex (Meyen) suggests relatively high lake levels. Absence of P. musteri, characteristic of deep, open water, and abundance of macrophyte-associated taxa indicate lake levels were lowest from 9.8 to 3.0 kyr BP. A shift to wetter conditions began at 4.4 kyr BP, indicated by the appearance of P. musteri, though inferred lake levels did not reach modern values until 1.4 kyr BP. The Pediastrum-inferred mid-Holocene lowstand is consistent with lower precipitation, previously inferred using pollen from this site, and is also in agreement with evidence for widespread drought in the South American tropics during the middle Holocene. An inference for steadily increasing lake level from 4.4 kyr BP to present is consistent with diatom-inferred water level rise at Lake Titicaca, and demonstrates coherence with the broad pattern of increasing monsoon strength from the late Holocene until present in tropical South America.

The national dialogue on behaviour change in UK climate policy: some observations on responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This chapter explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the chapter reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The chapter concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?

Tropical Cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPIOM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 year periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-year periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50ms-1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in 2 the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapor provide more energy for the storms so that when favorable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 years at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of tropical cyclones were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay, U.K., between 1991 and 2007

Tidal Flats are important examples of extensive areas of natural environment that remain relatively unaffected by man. Monitoring of tidal flats is required for a variety of purposes. Remote sensing has become an established technique for the measurement of topography over tidal flats. A further requirement is to measure topographic changes in order to measure sediment budgets. To date there have been few attempts to make quantitative estimates of morphological change over tidal flat areas. This paper illustrates the use of remote sensing to measure quantitative and qualitative changes in the tidal flats of Morecambe Bay during the relatively long period 1991–2007. An understanding of the patterns of sediment transport within the Bay is of considerable interest for coastal management and defence purposes. Tidal asymmetry is considered to be the dominant cause of morphological change in the Bay, with the higher currents associated with the flood tide being the main agency moulding the channel system. Quantitative changes were measured by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the intertidal zone formed using the waterline technique applied to satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from 1991–1994, to a second DEM constructed from airborne laser altimetry data acquired in 2005. Qualitative changes were studied using additional SAR images acquired since 2003. A significant movement of sediment from below Mean Sea Level (MSL) to above MSL was detected by comparing the two Digital Elevation Models, though the proportion of this change that could be ascribed to seasonal effects was not clear. Between 1991 and 2004 there was a migration of the Ulverston channel of the river Leven north-east by about 5 km, followed by the development of a straighter channel to the west, leaving the previous channel decoupled from the river. This is thought to be due to independent tidal and fluvial forcing mechanisms acting on the channel. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing for measurement of long-term morphological change in tidal flat areas. An alternative use of waterlines as partial bathymetry for assimilation into a morphodynamic model of the coastal zone is also discussed.

Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere ( up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered ( constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm(-2) and 0.45 Wm(-2) due to ozone change in the troposphere and - 0.123 Wm(-2) and + 0.066 Wm(-2) due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm(-2), while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm(-2). Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.