Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - III. Comparison of enzymes derived from psychrophilic, mesophilic or thermophilic sources

A completely randomised study was completed to examine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from psychrophilic, (F), mesophilic, (L) or thermophilic (Ta) sources, applied at ensiling, on the chemical characteristics and in vitro rumen fermentation of maize silage, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT). Treatments, all in triplicate, consisted of untreated maize forage or treated with preparations F, L, Ta or a mixture (1: 1, v/v) of F and L (FL), at two levels each, and ensiled for 210 days in plastic mini-silos. Addition of enzymes L decreased (P < 0.05) silage pH relative to the control, whereas enzyme Ta tended (P < 0.10) to reduce it. Preparations F, L and Ta tended to reduce (P < 0.10) the fibre contents of the silages, with effects being attributable to a decrease in the cellulose fraction. Starch contents were reduced (P < 0.05) in the treatments including enzyme F. End-point (96 h) gas production (GP) values did not differ among treatments, suggesting that enzymes did not change the total amount of fermentable substrate. However, consistent with the decrease in starch contents, adding enzyme F reduced (P < 0.05) GP at most incubation times. Addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the initial (6 h) organic matter degradation (OMD) levels in all but one treatment (F), with increases of 14, 19, and 26% for preparations L, Ta, and FL, respectively, averaged across levels. Furthermore, the addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the soluble OM losses, however, these increases did not fully account for the initial increase in OMD. The latter suggests that enzymes increased solubility and also altered silage structure, making it more amenable to degradation by ruminal microorganisms. As a result of the increase in OMD, without a concomitant increase in GP, the fermentation efficiency was greatly increased (P < 0.05) in enzyme treatments. Addition of enzymes to maize at ensiling, particularly those from the mesophilic and thermophilic sources used here, have the potential to increase the initial rate of silage OMD. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ruthenium (III) complexes of tetradentate NSNO pyridylthioazophenolates: Synthesis, spectral studies, crystal structure and redox properties

A family of ruthenium (III) complexes of tetradentate monobasic NSNO donor chelators (HL) have been synthesized and isolated in their pure form. On chromatographic separation, trans-dichloro and cis-dichloro ruthenium (111) complexes of pyridylthioazophenolates are eluted using 19:1 and 7:3 (v/v) DCM-MeOH mixtures, respectively. Both cis and trans isomers of the dark brown colored ruthenium (111) complexes, having the general formula of [Ru(L)Cl-2], have been characterized by elemental analyses, spectroscopic and other physico-chemical tools. The magnetic moments of both the cis- and trans-[Ru(L)Cl-2] complexes are in the range of 1.71-1.79 BM. One of the complexes, trans-[Ru(L1)Cl-2] (2a), has been subjected to single-crystal X-ray analysis which confirms that the chlorines are in mutually trans positions in the molecule. The EPR spectra of the cis-[Ru(L)Cl-2] complexes (1) in DMF are consistent with the fact that the complexes are low-spin octahedral with one unpaired electron having three different g values (g(x) not equal g(y) not equal g(z)) complexes are monomeric with an octahedral coordination sphere. The electrochemical studies of [Ru(L)Cl,] in DMF show a quasi-reversible voltammogram. The reduction potentials for the cis-isomers are comparatively lower than those of the corresponding trans isomers. On reaction with the bidentate bipyridyl ligand in the presence of AgNO3, the cis-[Ru(L)Cl-2] complexes (1) produce a series of complexes with the general formula [Ru(L)(bpy)(2)](PF6)(2) (3). which have also been characterized by elemental analyses, spectroscopic and other physico-chemical tools. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo numerical treatment of large linear algebra problems

In this paper we deal with performance analysis of Monte Carlo algorithm for large linear algebra problems. We consider applicability and efficiency of the Markov chain Monte Carlo for large problems, i.e., problems involving matrices with a number of non-zero elements ranging between one million and one billion. We are concentrating on analysis of the almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithm for evaluating bilinear forms of matrix powers since they form the so-called Krylov subspaces. Results are presented comparing the performance of the Robust and Non-robust Monte Carlo algorithms. The algorithms are tested on large dense matrices as well as on large unstructured sparse matrices.

Cobalt(III) complexes of some aromatic thiohydrazides – Synthesis, characterization and structure

Co(NH3)(5)Cl]Cl-2 forms neutral 1:3 complex by reaction with aromatic thiohydrazides, i.e. thiobenzhydrazide, o-hydroxythiobenzhydrazide, thiophen-2-thiohydrazide and furan-2-thiohydrazide. All these complexes are diamagnetic and have been characterized by elemental analysis and combination of spectroscopic methods. Cyclic voltammometry of the complexes shows irreversible metal centered and ligand centered electron transfer reactions. One complex, tris-o-hydroxythiobenzhydrazidocobalt(III),has been crystallized from DMSO solution to produce solvated crystals and its structure has been established by X-ray crystallography. Cobalt(III) ion is linked through three hydrazinic nitrogen and three sulfur atoms of three identical deprotonated ligand molecules in a distorted octahedral environment. Involvement of -OH group in intramolecular and intermolecular hydrogen bonding is crucial for crystal formation.

Metal cluster expansion by addition of low valent group 14 reagents: III. Reaction of bis[bis(trimethylsilyl)methyl]tin with M3(CO)12 or its derivatives (M = Fe, Ru, or Os): the crystal and molecular structures of M3(μ-SnR2)2(CO)10(R = CH(SiMe3)2; M = Ru or Os)

The stannylene [SnR2] (R = CH(SiMe3)2) reacts in different ways with the three dodecacarbonyls of the iron triad: [Fe3(CO)12] gives [Fe2(CO)8(μ-SnR2)], [Ru3(CO)12] gives the planar pentametallic cluster [Ru3(CO)10(μ-SnR2)2], for which a full structural analysis is reported, while [Os3(CO)12] fails to react. Different products are also obtained from three nitrile derivatives: [Fe3-(CO)11(MeCN)] gives [Fe2(CO)6(μ-SnR2)2], which has a structure significantly different from that of known Fe2Sn2 clusters, [Ru3(CO)10(MeCN)2] gives the pentametallic cluster described above, while [Os3(CO)10(MeCN)2] gives the isostructural osmium analogue, which shows the unusual feature of a CO group bridging two osmium atoms.

Functional model for catecholase-like activity: A mechanistic approach with manganese(III) complexes of salen type Schiff base ligands

Three new Mn(III) complexes [MnL1(OOCH)(OH2)] (1), [MnL2(OH2)(2)][Mn2L22(NO2)(3)] (2) and [Mn2L21(NO2)(2)] (3) (where H2L1 = H(2)Me(2)Salen = 2,7-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)-2,6-diazaocta-2,6-diene and H2L2 = H(2)Salpn = 1,7-bis(2-hydroxyphenyl)-2,6-diazahepta-1,6-diene) have been synthesized. X-ray crystal structure analysis reveals that 1 is a mononuclear species whereas 2 contains a mononuclear cationic and a dinuclear nitrite bridged (mu-1 kappa O:2 kappa O') anionic unit. Complex 3 is a phenoxido bridged dimer containing terminally coordinated nitrite. Complexes 1-3 show excellent catecholase-like activity with 3,5-di-tert-butylcatechol (3,5-DTBC) as the substrate. Kinetic measurements suggest that the rate of catechol oxidation follows saturation kinetics with respect to the substrate and first order kinetics with respect to the catalyst. Formation of bis(mu-oxo)dimanganese(III,III) as an intermediate during the course of reaction is identified from ESI-MS spectra. The characteristic six line EPR spectra of complex 2 in the presence of 3,5-DTBC supports the formation of manganese(II)-semiquinonate as an intermediate species during the catalytic oxidation of 3,5-DTBC.

Synthesis and spectroscopic properties of cobalt(III) complexes of some aroyl hydrazones: x-ray crystal structures of one cobalt(III) complex and two aroyl hydrazone ligands

Cobalt(III) complexes of diacetyl monooxime benzoyl hydrazone (dmoBH(2)) and diacetyl monooxime isonicotinoyl hydrazone (dmoInH(2)) have been synthesized and characterized by elemental analyses and spectroscopic methods. The X-ray crystal structures of the two hydrazone ligands, as well as that of the cobalt(III) complex [Co(III)(dmoInH)(2)]Cl center dot 2H(2)O, are also reported. It is found that in the cobalt(III) complexes the Co(III) ion is hexa-coordinated, the hydrazone ligands behaving as mono-anionic tridentate O,N,N donors. In the [Co(III)(dmoInH) (2)]Cl center dot 2H(2)O complex, the amide and the oxime hydrogens are deprotonated for both the ligands, while the isonicotine nitrogens are protonated. In the [Co(III)(d-moBH)(2)] Cl complex, only the amide nitrogens are deprotonated. It is shown that the additional hydrogen bonding capability of the isonicotine nitrogen results in different conformation and supramolecular structure for dmoInH(2), compared to dmoBH(2), in the solid state. Comparing the structure of the [CoIII(dmoInH)(2)]Cl center dot 2H(2)O with that of the Zn(II) complex of the same ligand, reported earlier, it is seen that the metal ion has a profound influence on the supramolecular structure, due to change in geometrical dispositions of the chelate rings.

Modeling the structure of amorphous MoS3: a neutron diffraction and reverse Monte Carlo study

A model for the structure of amorphous molybdenum trisulfide, a-MoS3, has been created using reverse Monte Carlo methods. This model, which consists of chains Of MoS6 units sharing three sulfurs with each of its two neighbors and forming alternate long, nonbonded, and short, bonded, Mo-Mo separations, is a good fit to the neutron diffraction data and is chemically and physically realistic. The paper identifies the limitations of previous models based on Mo-3 triangular clusters in accounting for the available experimental data.

The influence of the carbon surface chemical composition on Dubinin-Astakhov equation parameters calculated from SF(6) adsorption data-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation

Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation we show, for the first time, the influence of the carbon porosity and surface oxidation on the parameters of the Dubinin-Astakhov (DA) adsorption isotherm equation. We conclude that upon carbon surface oxidation, the adsorption decreases for all carbons studied. Moreover, the parameters of the DA model depend on the number of surface oxygen groups. That is why in the case of carbons containing surface polar groups, SF(6) adsorption isotherm data cannot be used for characterization of the porosity.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Linear and nonlinear microrheology of dense colloidal suspensions

The length and time scales accessible to optical tweezers make them an ideal tool for the examination of colloidal systems. Embedded high-refractive-index tracer particles in an index-matched hard sphere suspension provide 'handles' within the system to investigate the mechanical behaviour. Passive observations of the motion of a single probe particle give information about the linear response behaviour of the system, which can be linked to the macroscopic frequency-dependent viscous and elastic moduli of the suspension. Separate 'dragging' experiments allow observation of a sample's nonlinear response to an applied stress on a particle-by particle basis. Optical force measurements have given new data about the dynamics of phase transitions and particle interactions; an example in this study is the transition from liquid-like to solid-like behaviour, and the emergence of a yield stress and other effects attributable to nearest-neighbour caging effects. The forces needed to break such cages and the frequency of these cage breaking events are investigated in detail for systems close to the glass transition.